Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[tinm]

I knew my previous screed would make Tesla instantly tweet the number.

 

[jeewee3000]

Back on topic, I'd like to ask two things.

1) The 1.5% drop in stock price today, is it macro related or just people selling to get back in lower?
2) As discussed here and there, many see the current bullish trend going until at least 285~300$. Could it be wise to (see point 1) get out to buy the dip, or is a dip unlikely before 300$ SP?

Good luck to all

 

[krla]

Last sentence is the most important one

"we need to get back to increasing our Model 3 production plans!"

 

[BobSk]

Sorry, but I'm not going to cut Elon Musk that much slack. The man said he'd announce Wednesday night. Then, Wednesday night, instead of doing what he said he would do, he pushes the announcement to early in the morning Thursday. Once again, Elon overpromised and underdelivered. It's a behavior he keeps exhibiting. Wouldn't be surprised if his VPs of Communications (second only to Spinal Tap drummers for short-lived careers) point it out to him, resulting in their dismissal.

Take it easy. He intended to have the first full week reservation number. It should be until Thursday morning in CA. Then they have a quick check make sure the numbers are correct (no double counting, double charging etc.). It's important to have the correct number, because this number will be referred to in the news and in history books.

 

[sunhelm]

Holy crap, what an irrational market. Or maybe the hype was too much, market actually disappointed at 325k, aka a potential $14B revenue pretty much in the pipeline.

 

[tanner]

Holy crap, what an irrational market. Or maybe the hype was too much, market actually disappointed at 325k, aka a potential $14B revenue pretty much in the pipeline.

Yeah... Too bad I got in right before. Ouch.

 

[tanner]

Does anyone think the stock will recover today or will it take a massive beating still?

 

[hockeythug]

Prolly some profit taking happening. Was a pretty nice run up.

 

[jeewee3000]

Yeah... Too bad I got in right before. Ouch.

Just hold. We should see 270+ soon.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

There's the headline right there, in bold:

The Week that Electric Vehicles Went Mainstream

We’ve now received more than 325,000 reservations, which corresponds to about $14 billion in implied future sales, making this the single biggest one-week launch of any product ever.

 

[austinEV]

Does anyone think the stock will recover today or will it take a massive beating still?

Sigh. If you definition of "massive beating" is retracing half of *yesterdays* gain, reverting to the top Bollinger band, then yes. Massive beating.

 

[farzyness]

Let's keep this 325k number in context, shall we?

-This is FAR HIGHER than anyone, including Tesla, thought was doable
-The stock has nearly doubled in the last 2 months
-It has proven to the market, industry, and the world that an affordable EV has more than enough demand

A near-term pullback after such a run up is healthy, and frankly, inevitable. I see this is as a positive for people looking to get into the stock before the inevitable massive success of the Model 3 once it starts hitting the streets.

Good luck to all!

 

[tanner]

Just hold. We should see 270+ soon.

Hopefully "soon" is within the realm of possibility today/tomorrow, it's seems to be going up now (let's pray that continues). Regardless, I'll have to dump some as it was on margin.

 

[chickensevil]

Drop is likely influenced by Negative notes by Barclays analyst Brian Johnson:

Admittedly, the stock may grind higher over the coming weeks post the frenzy of the Model 3 unveil – which we do not see dented by the delivery miss, and an ‘unexpected’ fund raise. Then, we would like investors to take a deep breath and realize that: 1) Model 3 is not likely to be delivered in significant volume until 2019, 2) ASP will be more like $50k not $35k, and federal tax credits are eventually slated to expire, perhaps hurting reservation yield, and 3) as the gigafactory won’t be at scale, battery costs may not be low enough for the 20% gross margin target on the Model 3.

Analysts Raise Red Flags on Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) and Twitter Inc (TWTR)

Not sure why anyone would trust this guy...

According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Brian Johnson has a yearly average return of -2.7% and a 49% success rate. Johnson has a -10% average return when recommending TSLA, and is ranked #3073 out of 3852 analysts.

 

[austinEV]

There's the headline right there, in bold:

The Week that Electric Vehicles Went Mainstream

We’ve now received more than 325,000 reservations, which corresponds to about $14 billion in implied future sales, making this the single biggest one-week launch of any product ever.

How is that a credible claim? Doesn't apple routinely sell millions of widgets when they go live?

 

[tanner]

Sigh. If you definition of "massive beating" is retracing half of *yesterdays* gain, reverting to the top Bollinger band, then yes. Massive beating.

Just referring to the current price, no need to get snippy.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I am guessing that there is some "sell on the news" effect following the 325k reservations tweet. However, I'm thrilled to see 325k reservations, because that's about 3 times the number I was expecting.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Any thoughts on where this goes this afternoon? I'm surprised we're down, even with macro being down. I think the market will figure out the important part of that note this afternoon. How much more can Tesla point to production increases? This will have to be a big discussion on the Q1 call.

 

[Larken]

How is that a credible claim? Doesn't apple routinely sell millions of widgets when they go live?

I'm assuming they must be calculating in dollar terms.

 

[tanner]

Drop is likely influenced by Negative notes by Barclays analyst Brian Johnson:



Analysts Raise Red Flags on Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) and Twitter Inc (TWTR)

Not sure why anyone would trust this guy...

Damn. That's such a bleak outlook.