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As they're currently priced and current body style, Leaf sales will whither and die when 3 comes out. Prius will get hit very hard. The rest will see a decline with the possibly exception of the corolla. Not sure how many will cross shop a Model 3 to a Corolla. Price difference is so drastic, as is the value of the product. In other words, if you're cross shopping those two, you're probably going Corolla because the only reason you would compare a Corolla to a Model 3 is if you're extremely price sensitive.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I like the 325k number. I think the total will easily exceed 400k before production begins.
I would be especially interested to know the geographical distribution of reservations, particularly in countries not yet served by Tesla. India, Brazil, South Africa, etc.
I would also like to see the deposits remain in their countries of origin to build up sales, service and charging infrastructure locally. This could be very powerful messaging for undeserved markets. For example, it lets consumers in India have a say direct Tesla into their part of the country. When a store is located in their area, they will have pride of knowing that their Model 3 deposits funded the siting of that store. This will establish strong word of mouth and deep loyalty.
I would be especially interested to know the geographical distribution of reservations, particularly in countries not yet served by Tesla. India, Brazil, South Africa, etc.
I would also like to see the deposits remain in their countries of origin to build up sales, service and charging infrastructure locally. This could be very powerful messaging for undeserved markets. For example, it lets consumers in India have a say direct Tesla into their part of the country. When a store is located in their area, they will have pride of knowing that their Model 3 deposits funded the siting of that store. This will establish strong word of mouth and deep loyalty.
Strictly speaking it is a vaguely possible corner case that someone hoping that the maxed out performance version won't cost more than another $10K on top of the base price could get disappointment and refuse to settle for the $45K build standard.
All that means is that the total number of reservations goes up from roughly 1,300,000 to 1,300,010 instead of 1,300,009.
Why? It is a mental card trick to start deducting reservations from the 325,000 figure when that figure is still rising day in day out at an average weekly rate of 325,000 (given a statistically insignificant sample of one week). Even compensating for reasonable expectations of a sharp tail off in reservations in the coming weeks, probably followed by another surge in reservations following the Part 2 unveiling, the total number will be seriously huge compared with the current 325,000 before anyone needs to configure a Model 3 and decide if they are sad that something extra they had wished for was priced out of reach.
Also - not forgetting and vitally - unless someone comes up with something competitive, there isn't a better option for the money in the entire market. If someone does not want to pay Tesla $60,000 for a ludicrous mode Model 3 then they have to go and pay Ferrari $148,000 for the same performance and accept the reliability and running cost issues that come part and parcel with a Ferrari as well as give up three seats and the ability to summon the car to your front door full and pre-warmed every morning - and arguably depending on who you ask the Ferrari is outdated noisy and polluting tech with lower street cred.
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Exactly. Bears are acting like cancellations will be the end of Tesla or something. Tesla will sell every Model III they can make for many years. People who cancel will just be missing out.
mejojo
Active Member
flankspeed8
Member
Why do you have to be so rude and condescending? Do you disagree that there are people who plopped down $35k for a car that they are expecting will have full auto-pilot and full Super Charging at that price and when it comes time to pull the confirm trigger, if a car that they expected was going to be $35k has now increased to around $45-55k because of options creep that they could be priced out of the market? Right now in the euphoria of the Model 3 there are a lot of millennials and others who are caught up in the excitement, but when reality hits, they will have to either write a check or get a loan for more than they were expecting it could effect the take up rate. Add that to the probable elimination of the tax credit for those late to reserve and I think there is some validity to this argument. That is what that particular analyst was referring two. Man, I really dislike the tone on this board sometimes...
Mod note: an unacceptable post was moved to snippiness. There are intelligent persons inhabiting this forum but unfortunately civil behaviour does not always correspond to IQ. Recidivism tries moderators' patience. Mild-mannerism does not always equate to unending forgiveness.
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I think many traders were hoping for a lift from the M3 delivery numbers and planned to then get out right after that price rise. The problem wasn't so much the 325 number as it was a number which marked the end of known immediate short-term catalysts. With the NASDAQ down quite a bit today, some traders wanted to be really quick on the draw to take their profits. I personally was surprised by how quickly they sold when the number wasn't something unexpectedly high. It's all a game of being one step ahead of others in the market.
MartinAustin
Active Member
"Bears" are running out of stories. It used to be "they're only surviving because of government hand-outs" either ZEV or federal tax credits, or the $465million loan. Then it was "serious problems with Model S demand" and "the Model X will never come out." Now it's "Tesla will be ruined by Model 3 cancellations." COME ON. Tesla has done nothing except expand all these years, not necessarily smoothly, but it has been strong growth the whole time.
Bulls can now respond with "that's what you said the last time" about pretty much anything Bears come up with these days.
Today's TSLA movements... I would attribute mostly to macro-environment, and in small part to the relatively underwhelming Model 3 reservation numbers, that are a sort of victim of their own success. At some point they have to slow down!!! There are only so many early adopters who can afford to set aside $1,000 for two whole years.
Still, TSLA is news-driven and I'm not sure what will push it above $270 in the short term. Up next -
Gigafactory "opens" even though it won't really be producing much
Model X website Design Studio opens
Q1 Earnings Report
Potentially, news about Model S or Roadster improvements, More Model X press (Consumer Reports?), NHTSA crash tests of Model X ?
Tesla doesn't have a responsibility to explain to every human on the planet that there are base levels of options and more expensive loaded cars. The industry has worked this way forever. Tesla did the standup thing by showing the base model, with base model prices, and discussing base model features. If someone gets mad about a well-optioned car being more than 35k that is indeed dumb and we needn't feel bad for that person dropping a reservation-- they will not have a different experience at a BMW dealership.
Yep, looks like slows news for at least a month until earnings. And probably not a lot of excitement there, unless some announcement about production increase plans...
This is a good thing for us. Once most people out there realize EV is the way to go, TSLA as an EV maker would be close to realizing its potential. Unless there's another big thing going on, it would be time to exit the investment.
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