So the news going into today was reservations for 300,000 cars, and the stock was up 4%. Then we miss guidance by 1,200 cars this quarter, and we are down 4%. Am I the only one that finds that hilarious?
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Larmor, what battery did you specify? If 70kwh, then I would be concerned. If 90kwh, we're just seeing the prioritization scheme being used. Remember that there are no Model X vehicles at most Tesla stores to demo. Once the reviews come out and once the X goes into stores the wait will increase. Many X reservation holders have never seen the vehicle in person but have heard stories of problematic Xs coming off the assembly line. It'll take many months of people with Mulder's experience to calm the concerns of some reservations holders. You should consider this a great time to buy an X.
My take on this - no short term short squeeze trigger - but no significant harm done. Delivery shortfall is offset by alleviation of concerns about Model X program overall. Any cash flow shortfall from sales is recovered from deposits - no credibility to argue Tesla needs a distressed capital raise. However the absence of double whammy short squeeze trigger indicates no near term opportunistic raise at present either. This does roll into an improved Q2 and H2.
Moreover. The central thesis I have presented here consistently since last December, namely stock escallating from mid Feb to peak TSLA in Q3 on Q2 ER targeting guidance and funding for significantly greater than 500,000 annual deliveries by 2020 on the back of deposited demand holds as firm ever as a result of this Q1 guidance update and of course recent events with the Model 3.
For the record I have seen it written here many times that nobody predicted the Model 3 reservation response. That irks me a little because that is simply not true. Not only did I get the numbers correct I also explained exactly why down to the last detail as well as the implications. Most of that has been sitting in public view for many months here on TMC and arguably years if one knew where to look.
Moreover. The central thesis I have presented here consistently since last December, namely stock escallating from mid Feb to peak TSLA in Q3 on Q2 ER targeting guidance and funding for significantly greater than 500,000 annual deliveries by 2020 on the back of deposited demand holds as firm ever as a result of this Q1 guidance update and of course recent events with the Model 3.
For the record I have seen it written here many times that nobody predicted the Model 3 reservation response. That irks me a little because that is simply not true. Not only did I get the numbers correct I also explained exactly why down to the last detail as well as the implications. Most of that has been sitting in public view for many months here on TMC and arguably years if one knew where to look.
I seem to recall even prior to the last week of March, folks over on the model x thread mentioned that during their factory tour "every other vehicle on the production line was an X". So in my opinion they probably were ramped up to 750 for the final week of March.
Exactly my thoughts when I was discussing Q1 deliveries with friends here and other places. It would be amusing in the future to think back in 2016, we're worried about one thousand cars for a quarter. But hey, it is what it is.
In the same boat as larmor. Reserved a Model X on Sunday thinking we'd take delivery in latter half of 2016. Received an email to configure and take delivery at end of April/early May. Living in Arkansas we're anxiously awaiting the buildout of the SC network so we may wait. Are they trying to get rid of the 90 kw batteries?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yeah. I don't think MX is more difficult to build (assembly line etc) than MS. Tesla has discussed this before. But getting the initial launch ramp up going is/was challeging. Elon said all this before on EC. A one week slip during ramp up can result in a quarter shortfall of a thousand cars. This is what happened: a couple week slip.
With the longer term view, Tesla just reaffirmed their guidance for 2016. We know what's on the horizon for 2017 and beyond. Namely, tons of demand.
Bottom line is tesla is a "growth stock" and they'll have TONS of growth as a result of the demonstrated demand for all their products. This IS a high quality problem. The bull analysts will be increasing their price targets.
Think of the current situation in reverse: Tesla met the Q1 guidance but lowered full year and indication soft demand. Ouch. That would be really bad for this "growth stock"
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Electrifying
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We've traded more than 13 million shares two days in a row. This indicates big institutions getting long or covering. These elephants do not finish entering or exiting a position within two days, it takes them weeks. We've only recently climbed back above 200 day average. Which means it's likely we are at the beginning of an uptrend. A measly $10 drop on 300K shares means little in the grand scheme of things.
Yeah, this is a bigger concern for me, too. If X can't be produced then S is suppose to be instead. But could be that X problems slowed down the combined output.
People want constant perfection. And shorts will profit off the inconsistencies. That's life. I was hoping to get over $250 tomorrow. So which will the market consider a priority tomorrow? That the future is enormous or that they had problems last quarter?
Anyone cancelling their Model 3 reservation because TSLA missed their projected deliveries by 1,200?
Unclear. How much is manufacturing vs demand
An S ordered today has a May delivery. 2 months is very fast.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Tesla still doesn't have a MX in any of its stores, this indicates to me they are not worried about cancellations but rather needs to fill deliveries.
May I ask what type of MX did you order, a regular or p90d?
People seriously need to chill. Model D still has an immense backlog. Yes 1,200 cars is a lot but to put things into perspective that's 1.5 weeks of combined production. They still expect to meet guidance for full year.
People are doubting Tesla based on pure speculation. It's already explained that this much detail will not be given for the next delivery numbers and it was only done due to special circumstances. For all we know, those 1,200 missed were Model X sitting at service centers waiting for seals, meaning cars waiting for 2% of the parts so paperwork can be done. Pair this with the logistics of the customer and boom there is your miss where the delivery will happen in Q2.
Model 3 interest is through the roof and after seeing the prototype we can see it was optimized for fast and efficient manufacturing. I agree with Julian on this where this will be a temporal drop (limited damage). Smart money will buy and those panicking over the miss will lose out.
People are doubting Tesla based on pure speculation. It's already explained that this much detail will not be given for the next delivery numbers and it was only done due to special circumstances. For all we know, those 1,200 missed were Model X sitting at service centers waiting for seals, meaning cars waiting for 2% of the parts so paperwork can be done. Pair this with the logistics of the customer and boom there is your miss where the delivery will happen in Q2.
Model 3 interest is through the roof and after seeing the prototype we can see it was optimized for fast and efficient manufacturing. I agree with Julian on this where this will be a temporal drop (limited damage). Smart money will buy and those panicking over the miss will lose out.
X and S share a common assembly line once the paint is applied and for every X that went through the line and couldn't be delivered, there's an S that couldn't fit on that line. At no time did we see a lack of S orders. It was all about competition for the assembly line. I suppose if the incomplete X vehicles were removed prior to paint, that would be more of a concern, but I don't think we know this information. Remember, too, that in Q4 we likely saw a drawdown of available inventory (demo cars in stores, etc.). Because of this drawdown, Tesla couldn't repeat the process in Q1.
For Q2, expect a good many mostly-complete Model Xs from Q1 to supplement Q2 full production Model X vehicles. Subtract at least 250 vehicles to populate the stores worldwide in Q2, and expect the orders to come rolling in once people can actually sit in a Model X.
larmor
Active Member
I just messed around in the design studio, but have saved for 90kwh battery, non performance. I didn't even confirm the order yet -- still deciding on white seats (who would have thought activist at meeting would lead to this??) I'm very psyched, and want to get it asap. TBF i reserved just now to avoid any rush and backlog when safety data comes out and cars come in stores.
I'm totally fine with their production ramp, better to get it right and take your time. Learn lessons now, the street be darned-- the street is just trading paper not actually making a car...
I'm totally fine with their production ramp, better to get it right and take your time. Learn lessons now, the street be darned-- the street is just trading paper not actually making a car...
Model X shows how fallible they can be, and how self deception afflicts even the smartest
. They had many opportunities to abort the gadget mess , but they stuck
With it and even escalated it.
This is a mistake that just keeps on giving, when will it end?
Elon mentioned that every decision they made at the beginning turned
Out to be wrong, model X is still a problem .
I've been long this stock for years, model X is a self inflicted wound .
. They had many opportunities to abort the gadget mess , but they stuck
With it and even escalated it.
This is a mistake that just keeps on giving, when will it end?
Elon mentioned that every decision they made at the beginning turned
Out to be wrong, model X is still a problem .
I've been long this stock for years, model X is a self inflicted wound .
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