Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Papafox]

I recall someone mentioning Elon may call for increased production for the 3 before it comes out. Well...

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon is leaving little doubt that Model 3 demand will be huge (he knows a lot more than this poll) and an announcement will eventually be made about increasing production numbers. Many members of this forum came up with the same conclusion. Looks like we're on the right track.

 

[sunhelm]

As of close 3/29, we are at 230. 10/240 is a 4.1% drop. Perspective people! If that is a calamitous drop for you... [boilerplate about investing what you can afford to lose and risk lecture]

Besides, we are 24 hours away from the drop of the 3. Were you investing solely to bail before that??? I am mystified. Now is not the time to declare victory or defeat.

And I am declaring neither as I still am holding those options, just not as green as they were 2 weeks ago so yes, strapping in before the launch.

 

[everman]

I want to amend my previous post. Since blocking the w's fantasies (reluctantly, never blocked anyone on any forum before) I am not dissatisfied with the content of the thread except that I miss FluxCap's and Jesse's posts.

Example of OT content I like:

Very valuable, thanks! But I don't see any short-term relevance.

And I hope that both Julian and JHM continue to post. I have benefited from both of their contributions.

Moving on to responding to specific posts...
I am equally surprised by the fact that Julian thinks the following is even plausible, and the fact that he is so positive it's correct...

IMO he is subject to the error that JB mentioned (paraphrasing) "people think because batteries have always been expensive, that they will always be expensive". He also said:

The only reason EV's are more expensive than ICEv's is the price of batteries (motors, invertors ands BMS"s are not that expensive or difficult). EV's will dominate as battery prices fall. Tesla has at least a 5-10 year headstart, but at some point every OEM will be able to build EV's for less than they build gas cars. If you don't think OEM's are well positioned to do that look at how long it's taking Tesla to ramp production to 100k.


And electricity will be less expensive. Why will anyone continue to buy old ICEv's when the costs of fuel and maintenance are so much higher?

Disagree. IMO the main thing that differentiates Tesla-EM from Nissan-Ghosn is the superior vision and boldness of Tesla-EM.

MitchJi, you've got the reason behind the first statement I've bolded, it's listed just a bit farther down in your own post, which I've also bolded.

Why will anyone continue to buy old ICE's when the costs are so much higher (and add to that list: performance is worse, and space is less)? How can the current auto makers survive if all of a sudden, buyers change their minds overnight as to what makes a vehicle purchase compelling?

Remember that a seven percent drop in demand during the Great Recession caused two bankruptcies. Why, then, would you think that the ICE manufacturers will be able to survive a complete retooling for an overnight change in expectations regarding what a vehicle should have?

The current automakers have exactly three core competencies:
1) ICE manufacturing tooling and factories
2) Transmission manufacturing tooling and factories
3) Vehicle assembly and distribution

The new transportation solution doesn't require the first two on that list. Even all of the important components of the Bolt, like the battery pack, controllers, motor and infotainment as outsourced to LG. GM has improved their capabilities in the future EV landscape by exactly zero.

The Innovators Dilemma unfortunately suggests an inescapable truth: without creating a NewCo subdivision designed to operate as an EV startup and compete with the parent company, the parent company instead dabbles in the new technology without being able to divert the proper attention and resources to the project to allow it to usurp all of the rest of the product lines.

 

[sundaymorning]

There was a period in which bears were posting nonsense about demand issues everyday on this short term thread despite the evidence suggesting the contrary. They were largely given free reign to hijack this thread by spilling negative FUD, so now as the price is moving up, we have a few bears complaining about Julian's long, but yet rational thoughts. Perhaps this is because the price is running away from them? Makes one wonder..

 

[Emil]

I called a few Tesla stores today to try to get any information I could about the demand. Everyone the stores I called is expecting large numbers ( hundreds ). Here is a paraphrasing of the most interesting response from the Arizona store:

... since it was announced we have received hundreds and hundreds of calls and today ( 3/29 ) alone we have had at least a hundred calls.​

 

[austinEV]

I called a few Tesla stores today to try to get any information I could about the demand. Everyone the stores I called is expecting large numbers ( hundreds ). Here is a paraphrasing of the most interesting response from the Arizona store:

... since it was announced we have received hundreds and hundreds of calls and today ( 3/29 ) alone we have had at least a hundred calls.​

Note that still just translates to 1000s of reservations. I would be surprised if it is 40k on the first day, and that depends heavily on insider reservations. The real show will be online reservations on the 1st.

 

[Julian Cox]

I recall someone mentioning Elon may call for increased production for the 3 before it comes out. Well...

Elon Musk on Twitter

I know. Sorry. In future I will try to avoid this kind of thing and leave this thread to more 'on topic' matters.

I do have a personal Thread on TMC simply called Julian Cox on TMC and if I get a moment I'll pull some essay type pieces over there for reference.

My main concern was to ensure that the narrative here on the main thread continually highlighted the mid to late Feb exit from defenceless downward volatility and seek to prevent a self-fulfilling sentiment spiral. We're about $100 clear now so I hope that was helpful to some.

Next was to add a hopefully informed deep-dive narrative about the non-obvious implications of the Model 3 unveil and why the prevailing assumption of sell on the news is highly likely to be flawed.

As I have said all along since December actually 2016 is a year long stock promo from mid to late Feb to mid to late Q3 peaking in the region of $400. I won't re-run the reasons why, all the workings have been presented at some would say in excessive detail.

As far as I am concerned I am very confident that TSLA will perform as stated throughout and for the reasons given - especially considering Elon's latest tweet can essentially be taken as confirmation of the apex of that thesis - i.e.before this year 2016 is through the 500,000 units in 2020 number is going up - and with it the entire basis of the rational long term DCF valuation of the TSLA stock. Basically I think the stock is safe.

So now I plan now to take some big picture ideas across to Cleantechnica in syndicated article format and see if it is possible to help unravel some of more pernicious public and policy misperceptions surrounding the transition from fossil and ICE to renewables and electric transportation. Naturaly that is impossible without referencing the pivotal example and significance of Tesla.

For now good luck - although I don't think many here will need it for a while yet - and thanks very much for the likes.

 

[MitchJi]

The current automakers have exactly three core competencies:
1) ICE manufacturing tooling and factories
2) Transmission manufacturing tooling and factories
3) Vehicle assembly and distribution

The new transportation solution doesn't require the first two on that list. Even all of the important components of the Bolt, like the battery pack, controllers, motor and infotainment as outsourced to LG. GM has improved their capabilities in the future EV landscape by exactly zero.

Agreed, but when there is sufficient demand for the Bolt (when their battery pack costs go down by about 50%), they could quickly-easily ramp production to over 500k per year.

 

[DaveT]

Wow, just wow! I cannot believe that Elon, being an accomplished engineer, would tweet such a totally unscientific and bogus poll result! A poll that appears ONLY in TSLA headlines on a financial website is utterly meaningless to judge Model 3 demand. It only shows how many TSLA longs and shorts voted how many times.

But may be, he was just being sarcastic. Or he is preparing for the next capital raise.

Yes it's not he greatest poll but it was not only in TSLA headlines. The poll was linked to from CNBC's home page.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Wow, just wow! I cannot believe that Elon, being an accomplished engineer, would tweet such a totally unscientific and bogus poll result! A poll that appears ONLY in TSLA headlines on a financial website is utterly meaningless to judge Model 3 demand. It only shows how many TSLA longs and shorts voted how many times.

But may be, he was just being sarcastic. Or he is preparing for the next capital raise.

I doubt that the linked poll is the main reason for Elon's tweet, you can bet he has much better information that he's decided not to share right now.

 

[mmd]

Yes it's not he greatest poll but it was not only in TSLA headlines. The poll was linked to from CNBC's home page.

Thanks, I didn't see CNBC home page. I checked in other automakers headlines. I stand corrected. I will delete my post.
I never check cnbc home page. Only check TSLA quote on finance.yahoo.com. IMO, most voters found the poll in a similar way. But can't be sure.

 

[Yuri_G]

Wow, just wow! I cannot believe that Elon, being an accomplished engineer, would tweet such a totally unscientific and bogus poll result! A poll that appears ONLY in TSLA headlines on a financial website is utterly meaningless to judge Model 3 demand. It only shows how many TSLA longs and shorts voted how many times.

But may be, he was just being sarcastic. Or he is preparing for the next capital raise.

Or demand for the first desirable, attainable electric car is better than most could imagine.

 

[Julian Cox]

I doubt that the linked poll is the main reason for Elon's tweet, you can bet he has much better information that he's decided not to share right now.

Exactly, the poll was just an excuse to say it without referencing material insider information.

 

[Curt Renz]

Wow, just wow! I cannot believe that Elon, being an accomplished engineer, would tweet such a totally unscientific and bogus poll result! A poll that appears ONLY in TSLA headlines on a financial website is utterly meaningless to judge Model 3 demand. It only shows how many TSLA longs and shorts voted how many times.

But may be, he was just being sarcastic. Or he is preparing for the next capital raise.

The poll appears in the "News-Autos" section of CNBC's website, not "ONLY in TSLA headlines". Almost certainly Tesla has internally conducted marketing surveys that must imply extremely strong demand for the Model 3. As the CEO of a publicly traded company, Elon Musk would not have tweeted such a statement with his tongue in his cheek. He must be letting the public know that he knows something. I'd advise taking literally his, "Looks like we may need to increase production plans for the Model 3."

Now regarding a capital raise, you are almost certainly correct. If Wall Street bankers see huge Model 3 reservation numbers, they will come crawling over each other with competing bids to provide favorable financing for several Gigafactories and assembly plants.

 

[BobSk]

I understand this thread is for "short-term price movement". Some posts are indeed off topic. But if I have to choose, I prefer to see people continue to post here, some of them are very good and informative. If those are scattered in other threads, I probably would never see them. To me understanding the fundamentals and long-term prospects is quite relevant to short-term trading. Recently while TSLA was below $150, I was debating should I add. Because I know TSLA is going much higher in the long-term, that helped me to add more shares instead of watching in fear.

 

[BobSk]

The poll appears in the "News-Autos" section of CNBC's website, not "ONLY in TSLA headlines". Almost certainly Tesla has internally conducted marketing surveys that must imply extremely strong demand for the Model 3. As the CEO of a publicly traded company, Elon Musk would not have tweeted such a statement with his tongue in his cheek. He must be letting the public know that he knows something. I'd advise taking literally his, "Looks like we may need to increase production plans for the Model 3."

Now regarding a capital raise, you are almost certainly correct. If Wall Street bankers see huge Model 3 reservation numbers, they will come crawling over each other with competing bids to provide favorable financing for several Gigafactories and assembly plants.

Totally agree. Elon knows "model 3 will be a very compelling car at an affordable price." He also knows the demand. There is nothing wrong quoting the online poll. We are going to see a huge reservation number by Thursday night.

 

[sundaymorning]

I understand this thread is for "short-term price movement". Some posts are indeed off topic. But if I have to choose, I prefer to see people continue to post here, some of them are very good and informative. If those are scattered in other threads, I probably would never see them. To me understanding the fundamentals and long-term prospects is quite relevant to short-term trading. Recently while TSLA was below $150, I was debating should I add. Because I know TSLA is going much higher in the long-term, that helped me to add more shares instead of watching in fear.

I agree. I prefer to see it here as I don't have the time to scrol through 10 other threads just to see what some think. It's actually faster for me to scroll through here. Members who ace been complaining do not regularly post anyhow. Whereas Julian, Jhm and others have profoundly schooled many newbies here.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Sometimes the lack of information is information itself. With no one warning us about the global economy, except Yellen herself, can we assume all's clear until Q1 earnings? bought some June lotto options.

 

[sundaymorning]

Sometimes the lack of information is information itself. With no one warning us about the global economy, except Yellen herself, can we assume all's clear until Q1 earnings? bought some June lotto options.

Good point. With the slew of new M3 reservation inquiries, I wonder just how many of those interested in the car who are now also putting their money into the stock? The market for a $35k car is vastly higher than the S&X. With Tesla also expecting FCF, and if the macros cooperate, itll be quite interesting to see where we will be in Q2 and Q3.

 

[sunhelm]

I recall someone mentioning Elon may call for increased production for the 3 before it comes out. Well...

Elon Musk on Twitter

OMG. This tweet and his divorce only means one thing: Elon needs a new GF, and by that I mean a GF2!