Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[gene]

Lack of significant model X deliveries still not apparent.
And now February is gone.

Need to overcome that to give me confidence .
Until that appears settled the risk of stock pullbacks
Is greater in my mind.


What is the evidence on the state of model X production?

This is from the X sightings thread as of this morning:

Yesterday morning I saw a black Model X on the Dumbarton bridge. Day before that was a different black one in Palo Alto (who attracted a small group of interested people with the falcon doors). Day before that was a white X in San Jose. Three sightings in three days made me happy.

 

[jhm]

AutoPilot is a much bigger sales booster or sustainer than many people appreciate. We are not in the market for a Model S type car at all given the price level. But given the autopilot and the active safety that it brings (together with the passive safety the car has), we have zeroed in on buying it as the first car for my wife. If not for this, we would have simply waited for a model-3.

Speaking of which, any rumors on when autopilot 2.0 hardware will be released?

Likewise, AP got me to buy a MS last year.

 

[Drax7]

This is from the X sightings thread as of this morning:

Thanks Gene

 

[Fallenone]

Assuming we close at or above the current level 194, a high volume hammer on the monthly chart on the downtrend being a potentially powerful reverse to the upside?

Hugely important where TSLA, and the general markets close today to close the month for technical reasons. I'll do a write up if things play out. May have to change up my trading plan going forward.

 

[dmunjal]

Hugely important where TSLA, and the general markets close today to close the month for technical reasons. I'll do a write up if things play out. May have to change up my trading plan going forward.

Is there a level on the S&P, Naz, or TSLA you're looking for the close today?

 

[jesselivenomore]

Assuming we close at or above the current level 194, a high volume hammer on the monthly chart on the downtrend being a potentially powerful reverse to the upside?

YES

 

[jesselivenomore]

Is there a level on the S&P, Naz, or TSLA you're looking for the close today?

1940 SPX 4590 COMP 190 TSLA

This has been in play and a potential setup for awhile, just waiting for today's close to confirm.

 

[tinm]

Union kerfuffle at Gigafactory... 100 contractors walk off job

About 100 Workers Walk Out at Tesla Battery Plant Building Site - Bloomberg Business

 

[ev-enthusiast]

TM showing the X at Geneva Auto Show (link).

 

[Fallenone]

Could be the reason for the 2% drop.

Union kerfuffle at Gigafactory... 100 contractors walk off job

About 100 Workers Walk Out at Tesla Battery Plant Building Site - Bloomberg Business

 

[Periodicowner123]

Hovering around $192 at the current moment and the last day of the month, do you guys think the stock will go above the $220 price point towards the end of march in regards to the Model 3 being showcased ? We have seen a steady increase all throughout this month, along with the rest of the market and im thinking it will continue or we will see a drop in the entire market (along with TSLA) in March. Your thoughts on the matter.

 

[Fallenone]

I'd expect some healthy pull back to the 180 level in the coming one or two weeks. Also, InsideEVs will publish their estimate on S and X numbers tomorrow. I don't have high expectations for the X. Could be a catalyst to the downside in short term.

Hovering around $192 at the current moment and the last day of the month, do you guys think the stock will go above the $220 price point towards the end of march in regards to the Model 3 being showcased ? We have seen a steady increase all throughout this month, along with the rest of the market and im thinking it will continue or we will see a drop in the entire market (along with TSLA) in March. Your thoughts on the matter.

 

[Julian Cox]

Could be the reason for the 2% drop.

Maybe - It's just a contractor getting upset with another contractor over their hiring practices. Nothing to do with Tesla. Stock bounced straight off $190.50 and heading back in correct direction.

 

[speedracer]

Model X Q1 Deliveries

Anyone has thoughts or deduced numbers on Model X deliveries for Q1 now that Feb is coming to a close? This is the one thing that concerns me the most. Seeing the X rallies is encouraging, but I'd like to get some confidence on weekly production numbers. Look to your expert thoughts or insights into this.

 

[Periodicowner123]

With the Model 3 being showcased on March 31st, I would say that the share price will either jump a considerable amount or fall, seeing how we don't know much about it except for the fact that its going to be around $25,000 after tax incentives. I assume the looks will be similar to the Model S but who knows ? (....Elon). The model 3 will either greatly hurt or help Tesla since it is so anticipated and a lot is riding on its success in the market. The Gigafactory is also a big factor that is riding on Tesla's back, allowing them to start mass producing the EV's at a considerable amount. Unfortunately it wont be ready until 2020 so Tesla might be a good buy until then when Tesla finally plants its feet and the stock price soars when people realize that EV's are the future of transportation. Your guy's thoughts ?

 

[Johan]

With the Model 3 being showcased on March 31st, I would say that the share price will either jump a considerable amount or fall, seeing how we don't know much about it except for the fact that its going to be around $25,000 after tax incentives. I assume the looks will be similar to the Model S but who knows ? (....Elon). The model 3 will either greatly hurt or help Tesla since it is so anticipated and a lot is riding on its success in the market. The Gigafactory is also a big factor that is riding on Tesla's back, allowing them to start mass producing the EV's at a considerable amount. Unfortunately it wont be ready until 2020 so Tesla might be a good buy until then when Tesla finally plants its feet and the stock price soars when people realize that EV's are the future of transportation. Your guy's thoughts ?

The M3 reveal will be important but its reception and reservation numbers in particular will be the driver of stock price.

The GF will become gradually operative between 2017-2020 (as cell demand increases gradually) so the statement "unfortunately it won't be ready until 2020..." Is nonsensical.

 

[Periodicowner123]

I would assume that the Model X deliveries will be fairly low considering the fact that you need a reservation in order to actually buy one plus they were just introduced into the market a couple months ago. I think Tesla is focusing more on the Model 3 at the moment since that will be Tesla's main selling point in the EV market, not the $130,000 Model X. Model X production will slowly ramp up as they simplify on how to make it. its a very complex car to manufacture compared to the Model S, but they are working on it. I am focusing more on the mass market Model 3 than the Model X.

 

[Lessmog]

I would assume that the Model X deliveries will be fairly low considering the fact that you need a reservation in order to actually buy one plus they were just introduced into the market a couple months ago. I think Tesla is focusing more on the Model 3 at the moment since that will be Tesla's main selling point in the EV market, not the $130,000 Model X. Model X production will slowly ramp up as they simplify on how to make it. its a very complex car to manufacture compared to the Model S, but they are working on it. I am focusing more on the mass market Model 3 than the Model X.

In that case you have a couple years to observe how things go, so no immediate rush for the unveiling.

Also, you need a reservation no matter what model Tesla you want to buy, they are made to order and that takes some weeks. Plus however many others are waiting before you in the queue. [how is that spelt anyway?]

 

[sub]

I would assume that the Model X deliveries will be fairly low considering the fact that you need a reservation in order to actually buy one plus they were just introduced into the market a couple months ago. I think Tesla is focusing more on the Model 3 at the moment since that will be Tesla's main selling point in the EV market, not the $130,000 Model X. Model X production will slowly ramp up as they simplify on how to make it. its a very complex car to manufacture compared to the Model S, but they are working on it. I am focusing more on the mass market Model 3 than the Model X.

The model X matters as much or more than the model 3 for the next 3-6 months. The only thing model 3 had to help stock this year is reservation numbers, model x is bringing the cash.

 

[ggies07]

As a web designer, I can't wait to see what the Model 3 page looks like and what info they will have on it. Heck, it'll be nice just to have a dedicated page with a picture and a reserve button like we once had with the X.