Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[theschnell]

1940 SPX 4590 COMP 190 TSLA

This has been in play and a potential setup for awhile, just waiting for today's close to confirm.

Only TSLA made the cut. What does that mean??

 

[MitchJi]

Logistics [indiscernible] the fact that it's just go to one station to the next instead of going from multiple entities to multiple entities. But really when you get to the kinds of scale that we're talking about, you really get to design customer equipment that's much better at processing each step. And you really get to design the machine that makes the machine, not just do so with off-the-shelf equipment. So it took -- everything about it is going to get a whole lot better. That's why we think the 30% number when the Giga Factory is at full production is a conservative number. Yeah. And then, yeah. So.

Two things slowing the building of GF1:
It's the first GF. Figuring out how to build the equipment etc.

Tesla has limited capital, and has not yet demonstrated GF's are cash cows.

All companies have limited capital even cash cow Apple.

The difference is the number.

Tesla has proven again and again its ability to access the capital markets,when needed, on favorable terms.

Tesla wants more risks from battery companies in Japan

The clash of cultures that follows Tesla everywhere has landed in Japan, put into words by the company's director of battery technology, Kurt Kelty, during a speech he recently gave in Osaka. Referring to Japanese battery partners that the company wants to engage with for its gigafactory, Kelty said that the suppliers aren't being aggressive enough. "We take risks," he said, "but it seems not the case in Japan."

That gigafactory and Tesla's expansion plans will require an enthusiastic push from the companies who make the technology that makes the cars go, not only to build enough product to suit Tesla's production goals but also to drive down the price of batteries, which would drive down the price of electric cars. It seems Tesla is happy with the quality of the batteries it's getting, but not the commitment to growth. "We're a growing company, and therefore we need to put pressure on the suppliers, so the suppliers need to grow as well," Kelty said.

Your statement is correct. But IMO so are mine. If Tesla had Apple's cash they would just throw some at the problem. That plus potential investors, even Panasonic and their suppliers remain somewhat skeptical.

I just called the local Tesla Store (Corte Madera) and asked exactly when is the earliest I can reserve an M3 (they expect to find out in mid March), and have they had a lot of inquiries (laughter - oh yeah).

 

[FluxCap]

Hugely important where TSLA, and the general markets close today to close the month for technical reasons. I'll do a write up if things play out. May have to change up my trading plan going forward.

I'm really looking forward to your write-up, do share when you can.

 

[TSLAopt]

Quoted from Feb 23rd:

I am absolutely salivating at the prospect of what tomorrow's updated NASDAQ shorts metric will show. While it is a bit stale because it is as of end of trading day Feb 12th, I feel that it is still a very important data point to what could be an indicator for the beginnings of a major reversal if the macro market cooperates (doesn't have a major crash or another significant mini-crash/correction).

IF this NASDAQ data shows over 32-33mm+ shares short I will buy some short term options for the first time again in years on TSLA. They will be expiring a few months out, June or Sept most likely and I haven't decided on what strike yet.
IF it is over 32-33mm shares short then I also am hoping TSLA tanks a bit today/tomorrow and for the open on Thursday so I can get a better deal on the options I want to buy.
This is my own calculated risk I will make and if anyone else does the same please do so at your own risk.

The 31mm shares short left me hanging a bit...instead of buying June or Sept options options the next day I bought Jan 18 450 options as I think there still could be a huge short squeeze in the coming months and can still cash out with those I believe potentially being ITM or close to it with well over a year to expire...but if not I have the option of another year+ to hold onto them for what I think will be an imminent rally later (hopefully before Jan 2018).

I got got another small positive data point today though...the IB feed for TSLA news announced that TSLA was the hardest borrow last week for the week of Feb 22-26 (right after TSLA was EYES, SCTY, WTW, and FIT). this is likely very good news in my opinion that the short positions are STILL going up despite the rise in price.
We shall see for sure though in the coming NASDAQ publications of Short Interest.

i am starting to think the stock could rip upwards much faster soon as long as no major TSLA disaster occurs and the macro market cooperates.

 

[Johan]

i am starting to think the stock could rip upwards much faster soon as long as no major TSLA disaster occurs and the macro market cooperates.

Agreed, but the macro part is a tough one to put a proper risk odds on. Election year in the US, many possible dark clouds on the horizon... oh well TSLA and Tesla need to just keep accelerating like a Falcon-9 rocket in order to reach escape velocity.

 

[techmaven]

I don't see mention of this yet:

Sumitomo Metal Mining to boost production of NCA for Li-ion batteries by 38%; targeting Tesla Model 3

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/02/20160225-smm.html

Sumitomo 3 year plan, specifically calls out Tesla:
http://www.smm.co.jp/E/uploaded_files/20160215chukei_en.pdf

Seems that another one of the Tesla bear's attack memes that there are no suppliers for the Gigafactory is going down.

 

[Papafox]

JB Straubel's recent comment that Model 3 will be about the size of an Audi A4 got me thinking. There's no way a Tesla Model S would weigh 80% of it's current weight if shrunk down that small, and there's no way that Model 3 will weigh 80% of a Model S either. If you decrease the width and length of a car each to 80% of the former size, you end up with a two-dimensional footprint that is .64 the size of the original. Of course a car is a three-dimensional object and so you would lose weight with the reduction in height, as well. For these reasons, I'm thinking we're shooting too high on battery size. Shouldn't a 42kwh battery give the Model 3 nearly the same range as a Model S 70 if the Model 3 weighs 60% of what the Model S weighs and has appropriately smaller aerodynamic drag?

 

[jhm]

Electric vehicle numbers hit 1.3m as costs predicted to beat petrol cars : Renew Economy

Good info on the growth od EVs through last year. New EVs up 68% y/y and cumulative EV fleet reaches 1.3 million.

Over the next 9 years, 50% annual growth hits cumulative 50 million EVs in 2024 and 25 million more in 2025. This would pretty much set oil in permanent decline.

 

[jesselivenomore]

I'm really looking forward to your write-up, do share when you can.

Sorry, turns out not much new. The indices had a chance to confirm a bottom today based on the charts I look at but ended up reversing instead and maintaining status quo - confusion. Depending on the close I was going to take my hedges off, but had to keep them instead. It is unfortunate, because the macro markets is the missing piece for me before I can play TSLA more aggressively.

TSLA did end up holding up and forming the hammer reversal candle on the monthly chart. At the same time bears and agnostic traders looking at short/medium term resistance are selling 195-205. My view is that long term technicals always supersede shorter term ones - in this case long term reversal candle(that not many are looking at) > short term resistance(that everyone is looking at). This dynamic has the making of a bear trap especially if we get above 205. This would have been significant had macro markets obliged, but as is I wouldn't act on it until further confirmation.

One more thing, after TSLA's monthly reversal, I am now no longer willing to buy it on weakness, but rather will buy(add to) it on strength. This might be counter intuitive, but the reason is because TSLA is now set up technically to go higher - so when it confirms this and actually does go up I will press and be more aggressive. However, if it acts differently than it is "supposed to" and goes down instead, I will sell. Pulling back to 180 would be fine, but anything below 160-70 would ring alarm bells. On the other hand, if we break above 205, and especially 220(the original price I said I would reenter at) it would be major buys and tipping points for shorts.

 

[Earlian]

View attachment 113290

JB Straubel's recent comment that Model 3 will be about the size of an Audi A4 got me thinking. There's no way a Tesla Model S would weigh 80% of it's current weight if shrunk down that small, and there's no way that Model 3 will weigh 80% of a Model S either. If you decrease the width and length of a car each to 80% of the former size, you end up with a two-dimensional footprint that is .64 the size of the original. Of course a car is a three-dimensional object and so you would lose weight with the reduction in height, as well. For these reasons, I'm thinking we're shooting too high on battery size. Shouldn't a 42kwh battery give the Model 3 nearly the same range as a Model S 70 if the Model 3 weighs 60% of what the Model S weighs and has appropriately smaller aerodynamic drag?

Great point.

But it might have no impact on TSLA this year. They didn't tell the battery cap. of the MX, till release. So on March they probably will show some visuals, talk vague about range, power and usability and then open for reservation.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

View attachment 113290

JB Straubel's recent comment that Model 3 will be about the size of an Audi A4 got me thinking. There's no way a Tesla Model S would weigh 80% of it's current weight if shrunk down that small, and there's no way that Model 3 will weigh 80% of a Model S either. If you decrease the width and length of a car each to 80% of the former size, you end up with a two-dimensional footprint that is .64 the size of the original. Of course a car is a three-dimensional object and so you would lose weight with the reduction in height, as well. For these reasons, I'm thinking we're shooting too high on battery size. Shouldn't a 42kwh battery give the Model 3 nearly the same range as a Model S 70 if the Model 3 weighs 60% of what the Model S weighs and has appropriately smaller aerodynamic drag?

80% is not 80% per dimension. That would be very small car indeed. Go ahead, run calculations, you'll get mini.
It was never specified what 80% is, I'm guessing interior volume. If similar to A4, that would put L at ~90%, W at 90-95% and H ~100%

I did some rudimentary calculations awhile back, and came up with "guessclusion" that they'd need about 80% of battery for the same range.

 

[Papafox]

Zhelko, you're right, the differences in length, width, and height between the A4 and Tesla S are much closer than I realized. OK, back to 80% ; (

 

[Gerardf]

Credit Suisse (Dan Galves) latest report gives an interesting update on Tesla production upgrades :

The capacity actions include final assembly capability of over 100,000 units annually, body assembly estimated at 3,500 per week, eventual paint shop capacity of 500,000 units per week and a second stamping press with the 10–20 times the throughput capacity of the company's legacy press.

The second stamping press was new information for me. Looks like both stamping press and paint shop are already moving to 500k / year capacity that is forecasted for 2020.

 

[hobbes]

Yeah, new stamping press is surprising - I always thought that was the thing that had the biggest production capacity of all the parts in production. Are they already preparing for Model 3?

Also, the paint shop capacity of 500,000 per week you cited seems way too high compared to the other production components (one car out of the paint shop evey 1.2 s if operating 24/7 :scared. Did they mean "per year"? Or will they offer a monthly color change option ?

Credit Suisse (Dan Galves) latest report gives an interesting update on Tesla production upgrades :

The capacity actions include final assembly capability of over 100,000 units annually, body assembly estimated at 3,500 per week, eventual paint shop capacity of 500,000 units per week and a second stamping press with the 10–20 times the throughput capacity of the company's legacy press.

The second stamping press was new information for me. Looks like both stamping press and paint shop are already moving to 500k / year capacity that is forecasted for 2020.

 

[WarpedOne]

Yes, they are moving.
500k won't happen a s step from 50k on 31.12.2019 into 500k on 01.01.2020.
First you buy tooling, then you hire people, then you train people, then you fix problems and optimize. And then you buy tooling, etc.

 

[RobStark]

My understanding is that the legacy press can already handle 500k units per year.

It was there when Toyota/GM built 436k cars ~10 years ago.

 

[WarpedOne]

My understanding is that the legacy press can already handle 500k units per year.

Depends what those units are.

Our Press Line is the largest of its kind in North America and is capable of producing one part every six seconds.

5M stamped sheets / year running 24/7.
How many stamped sheets per car? 10?

 

[Blip]

Seems like SPY (193.56) and TSLA (191.93) might be crossing today. Last time that happened, was February 2. Today is March 1. (should have been the 2., if not for the leap year). Is this important? Probably not. Is it fun? For some people... :smile::wink:

 

[Gerardf]

500k per week must be an error.

my quote was from here : Benzinga - Actionable Trading Ideas, Real Time News, Financial Insight


another source says:

That bold call stems from the firm’s observation of an upgraded body assembly section, now rated at a throughput of 3,500 vehicles a week, which equates to about 175,000 vehicles per year, a new state of the art paint shop equipped to handle 500,000 vehicles a year, and the construction of a second stamping press, boosting the throughput 10 to 20 times.

Source : Tesla Motors Inc Manufacturing Plant Ready to Produce 100,000 Plus Vehicles: Analyst | BidnessEtc | Automobiles | By Saif Ali Jafri


Best would be to see the source report from Mr. Galves

 

[RobStark]

Depends what those units are.

Cars. As in Toyota Corollas/Geo Prizm and Pontiac Vibe/Toyota Matrix.

I don't think it makes much difference that the parts are slightly larger for Model S.