Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MonroeSS]

MonroeSS

If GM reduce the price of the Bolt to a price where it will compete for business effectively with a similar ICE vehicles that sell in the millions of units I would cry with joy for the future of our children.

Sadly the entire purpose of the Bolt at $37.5K is a cynical attempt to hamper Tesla in the media and to delay the day that hope arrives, nothing more. Hope that explains it.

If you want the price reduced you must be implying the Bolt is overpriced to begin with. How can it be overpriced if GM is most likely losing money on each sale? How can the Bolt be a ripoff if it is sold under cost (negative margin)? Now compare that to a Model S with 25% margins. If they didn't want EVs to sell wouldn't they price it too high to sabotage sales? What other EV offers a 60kwh battery for $37.5k(before incentives)? Are you saying the Bolt can be cheaper but GM decided to price it too high? The i3 costs $42K for 22 kwh, Leaf $33k for 30kwh, S60 $69K for 60kwh...So which company is ripping off people more and how exactly do you think the Bolt can be priced lower? Has GM found a magic trick to make batteries cheaply the other auto co

In a free market no company can get away with overpricing. If the Bolt is overpriced then sales will suffer and the price will be adjusted accordingly. They cannot not want to sell it after spending a billion dollars developing it. They should want to sell thousands of Bolts if for compliance purposes alone. There is no evil auto company trying to sabotage EV sales by selling mediocre EVs. If the product is bad no one is going to be like "Man, EVs suck" because GM messed up theirs. They will just go to the competition that offers a better one. It is impossible to know how the Model 3 and Bolt will do unless you know the TCO for both. Insurance rates, yearly service charges, towing charges to service centers etc need to b factored in. The first Bolts will be 2+ old by the time the first Model 3 is delivered. No one knows what the price will be the same or GM will lower it by $5K like they did with the Volt.

You still haven't answered why anyone would buy a S70D over a Taurus SHO AWD that has more power, more speed, more standard features, and save $30K for similar options. If you know the answer then that is the same reason why the Bolt may sell fine even if priced more than ICEs the same size.

 

[lango]

BMW is very serious about BEV cars. Relative of mine that works for corporate owned dealer (yup, there is such thing in Canada), mentioned that they have corporate training sessions or alike with 'electrify or die' message. I paraphrase, I don't remember exact wording.

They're trying to change the culture, not that they are already successful.

Yeah, some are definitive ahead or trying to be ahead. BMW is one of them, VW seems to be serious about BEV too now, there is Nissan with Leaf, GM with Bolt/Volt but GM has never said publicly that they are going to move new platforms to BEV drive-train as design target.

Fiat/Chrysler on the other hand is not acknowledging BEV as the future and Toyota is still promoting fuel cells.

 

[Julian Cox]

Definitives? After all but guaranteeing $200 is the bottom, and observing $200->$140, you still use that language?
What an arrogance! You're convinced you can predict behavior of complex systems like human society, those that no one has been able to model yet. Oh, yes, except Isac Asimov ('future history'), who I loved as a kid, but he writes 'science fiction', not 'science'.

I agree you can claim with significant certainty particular events unfolding, like BEV beating ICE (eventually). But offering timelines of stock movement?

With all due respect, I think I'll have to block you. I agree with much of what you say will happen - eventually, but I don't need cheerleading, I'd like balanced inputs, and this is not your forte.

It is not honest of you to claim I guaranteed $200 as the bottom and if you bothered to check in fact I explained carefully and specifically why $200 was not a difinitive at the time. Considering you already know so much better than I that you feel qualified to summarily adjudicate on behalf of this group whether what I say is either definitively right or definitively wrong then I can clearly add nothing of value for you and see no reason why you should make such a pronouncement regards blocking me rather than simply getting on with it. FYI I cannot see any credible substance to your opinion of what is or isn't predictable.

 

[RobStark]

The Bolt at 30k is right in line with the rest of GM's products. People pay 32k US without incentives for the Encore. The Bolt may not have as much luxuries inside as the Encore, But it will have a great deal more tech and performance. Even ignoring the electric power train, The Bolt is a compelling vehicle in GM's line.

Buick Encore	Dimensions
Length	4,280 mm (168.5 in)
Width	1,775 mm (69.9 in)
Height	1,646 mm (64.8 in)

Chevrolet Bolt	Dimensions
Length	4,166 mm (164.0 in)
Width	1,765 mm (69.5 in)
Height	1,595 mm (62.8 in)

The Bolt is not an Encore. It is shorter,narrower, and lower. The Bolt driver will sit ~2" below that of an Encore driver diminishing the commanding view of the road so many CUV owners love.

The Bolt will not have Buick Quiet Tuning i.e. acoustic glass,foam filled crevices in the body work, and premium sub carpet. Not only is it expensive but it is heavy. No, Bolt will not have the Encore's ICE noise but it will have wind and tire noise comparable to a Chevy not a Buick.

And Bolt is not a Buick. It will not have the waterfall grill nor wood/leather steering wheel. Brand matters.

Silverado,Suburban and Corvette have built their own brands within Chevy for over 60 years that allows them to charge $60k plus for top trims. The Bolt EV does not have that brand equity.

 

[Svetlin]

Can the mods please create a thread "Julian's definitive $400 price target by Q3 2016". This is getting tedious.

I also wouldn't mind if there were a limit for the number of posts per day one can make in the short term thread.

 

[McMuggets]

I think there is a blurring of what Julian thinks as definitive or just merely probable. Sometimes he presents things with such conviction people take as definitive, despite them not being meant to be. Other times, he means definitively but we just don't know what is or isn't definitive. This is why either quotes are important or a full posting of every post Julian as done can be used for fact checking. Otherwise it is becoming a "He said she said they said" thing... And is indeed tedious.

 

[RobStark]

If you want the price reduced you must be implying the Bolt is overpriced to begin with. How can it be overpriced if GM is most likely losing money on each sale?

It is overpriced because of what you can buy for the same amount of money. It has nothing to do with cost to produce.

It will suffer in the marketplace when Bolt and Model 3 are in the same footing.

For a time it will be on the market without Model 3 competition.

For another amount of time it may have access to Federal EV credits while Tesla has exhausted theirs. Once both are on sale without incentives Bolt will have to be discounted $10k plus to move or some combination of GM/Dealer discount amounting to $10k plus.

You still haven't answered why anyone would buy a S70D over a Taurus SHO AWD that has more power, more speed, more standard features, and save $30K for similar options. If you know the answer then that is the same reason why the Bolt may sell fine even if priced more than ICEs the same size.

Supercharger Network,Auto Pilot, 17" touchscreen,Tesla service ......


And most importantly BRAND.

Model S70 owners can remove the rear model badging with dental floss and a hair dryer. And drive around like P90DL owners.

It will still get the same amount of looks and thumbs up. It will get parked in front of fancy restaurants and night clubs. What economist call "physic income."

It is the halo effect of Ludicrous mode. What the most extreme environmentalist that demand Tesla make only the most efficient models possible just refuse to understand.

 

[stealthology]

The X ramping to full production, 2016 financials being good, and the Model 3 reveal are known information. Am I wrong in saying most shorts already know this? I feel like we need a surprise for some type of near term big move higher. What other "surprises" can there be other than Elon potentially releasing Model 3 reservation information if it's good?

I'm getting sick of following the general markets (levered x3) for the most part.

 

[TSLAopt]

The X ramping to full production, 2016 financials being good, and the Model 3 reveal are known information. Am I wrong in saying most shorts already know this? I feel like we need a surprise for some type of near term big move higher. What other "surprises" can there be other than Elon potentially releasing Model 3 reservation information if it's good?

I'm getting sick of following the general markets (levered x3) for the most part.

No surprise needed but it wood be welcomed if a positive surprise happens

3 points of "known information" you reference are things most of us on here(except the minority of shorts/bears here) believe or know will happen, but I think that the shorts think only one or two of those things will happen: Model 3 reveal and a few shorts may also think the X will ramp up, but I don't think any shorts agree that Tesla's 2016 financials will be 'good'

 

[postpast]

Buick Encore	Dimensions
Length	4,280 mm (168.5 in)
Width	1,775 mm (69.9 in)
Height	1,646 mm (64.8 in)

Chevrolet Bolt	Dimensions
Length	4,166 mm (164.0 in)
Width	1,765 mm (69.5 in)
Height	1,595 mm (62.8 in)

The Bolt is not an Encore. It is shorter,narrower, and lower. The Bolt driver will sit ~2" below that of an Encore driver diminishing the commanding view of the road so many CUV owners love.

The Bolt will not have Buick Quiet Tuning i.e. acoustic glass,foam filled crevices in the body work, and premium sub carpet. Not only is it expensive but it is heavy. No, Bolt will not have the Encore's ICE noise but it will have wind and tire noise comparable to a Chevy not a Buick.

And Bolt is not a Buick. It will not have the waterfall grill nor wood/leather steering wheel. Brand matters.

Silverado,Suburban and Corvette have built their own brands within Chevy for over 60 years that allows them to charge $60k plus for top trims. The Bolt EV does not have that brand equity.

From your spec's the Bolt is a 1/4 narrowed and 2 inched shorter; that doesn't seem a big deal to me, (The Bolt has 6 inches more rear headroom than the Model S)

I bet any money that Chevy put Quiet Tuning in the Bolt, I bet you that the Bolt has every noise reduction measure that GM has available.

- - - Updated - - -

And the Bolt won't have the same level of wood or leather as the Encore, but it will be a full 3 seconds faster to 60, much better handling, and with much better tech.

 

[doctoxics]

Important to keep in mind the many different batteries in Tesla products:

1. Current cells in S/X
2. Cells in power wall emergency back-up
3. Cells in power wall recycle and power pack
4. Cells in new roadster battery pack
5. Cells under devolpment for Model 3

Are there others?

LG Chem makes cells for 4. Panasonic makes cells for the rest. Tesla does not make cells (not yet anyway). Tesla makes modules, power walls and power packs.

Let me know of any mistakes/additions. Eventually we will need a reference page to keep track of cells and products.

 

[Julian Cox]

Guys, this really isn't that complicated.

The GM Bolt is a $17.5K GM Sonic with an unremarkable-performance $20,000 LG electric drivetrain and unremarkable LG infotainment system.

It is Definitively Not a cost competitive threat to the $17,500 ICE Sonic or anything like it.

If the Bolt was priced at or very significantly closer to, or even under $17,500 then it would be, subject to consumer acceptance of styling, range and charging convenience all of which are lacking in comparison to the Sonic. That is the end of the rational debate regarding the competitiveness of the GM Bolt vs ICE when priced at a total of $37,500 before tax rebate incentives which may or may not be of full or any value to typical purchasers of $17,500 cars.

Next up. What is the chance of GM and its dealers agreeing to price the Bolt to cannibalise consumer interest in the purchase of its $17,500 vehicles and in so doing risk stranding GM's capital investments in its million plus unit per year compact ICE vehicle and engine production lines?

Definitive answer: Zero. Happy to explain if needs be.

 

[sub]

Julian's point is the Bolt is comparable to ICE cars that cost less than 20k based on size, performance, and I'm assuming this part, quality. The model 3 will be comparable to European mid size sedans and near equal in all aspects. This is why the Bolt is over priced. I have an I3, leased, I would never buy it and only leased it as a stop gap. I refer to it as the "clown car".

what I don't like is how Julian is being attacked and yet nobody has come running to his defense like everyone does if anyone calls
out Moaing on his constant negativity. Julian is passionate, I appreciate it, but I don't take everything he says literally and empty my bank account into tsla shares based on his posts. Moaing takes the negative on everything then boasts when he is right as if a broken clock isn't right twice a day. Many of us long term Bulls have increased our bank account substantially over the years, I don't need Maoing crying wolf all day long to save me. Shorts, or those that can only see the world as "the sky is falling" at all times think they appear more intelligent for some reason. Wrong.

That being said, both are welcome to post here. It's really easy to skip posts you don't want to read or hit ignore. I've noticed those on my ignore list haven't been posting since the stock turned positive. Where are you Calgary? Tftf?

 

[Fallenone]

Well in shorts' minds, these three things are actually:

1. Impossible to ramp, tons of quality issues even after produced.
2. CC full of lies, invented some strange metric to cover up, management are painting a rosy picture on their cash again.
3. Only pictures for the reveal.

So if Tesla can actually get to 800-1000 X per week without mass quality issue, get more cash on their balance sheet, and roll out test drive-able Model 3 on Mar 31, it would be surprises in their own right.

The X ramping to full production, 2016 financials being good, and the Model 3 reveal are known information. Am I wrong in saying most shorts already know this? I feel like we need a surprise for some type of near term big move higher. What other "surprises" can there be other than Elon potentially releasing Model 3 reservation information if it's good?

I'm getting sick of following the general markets (levered x3) for the most part.

 

[AlMc]

Julian's point is the Bolt is comparable to ICE cars that cost less than 20k based on size, performance, and I'm assuming this part, quality. The model 3 will be comparable to European mid size sedans and near equal in all aspects. This is why the Bolt is over priced. I have an I3, leased, I would never buy it and only leased it as a stop gap. I refer to it as the "clown car".

what I don't like is how Julian is being attacked and yet nobody has come running to his defense like everyone does if anyone calls
out Moaing on his constant negativity. Julian is passionate, I appreciate it, but I don't take everything he says literally and empty my bank account into tsla shares based on his posts. Moaing takes the negative on everything then boasts when he is right as if a broken clock isn't right twice a day. Many of us long term Bulls have increased our bank account substantially over the years, I don't need Maoing crying wolf all day long to save me. Shorts, or those that can only see the world as "the sky is falling" at all times think they appear more intelligent for some reason. Wrong.

That being said, both are welcome to post here. It's really easy to skip posts you don't want to read or hit ignore. I've noticed those on my ignore list haven't been posting since the stock turned positive. Where are you Calgary? Tftf?

Hey, I am more cautious than most here and I want to hear both sides, but don't ask them back....especially 'the arsenal'. I read 'tftf's' posts but the 'Cman'..not so....:scared:

 

[postpast]

Julian's point is the Bolt is comparable to ICE cars that cost less than 20k based on size, performance, and I'm assuming this part, quality. The model 3 will be comparable to European mid size sedans and near equal in all aspects. This is why the Bolt is over priced. I have an I3, leased, I would never buy it and only leased it as a stop gap. I refer to it as the "clown car".

what I don't like is how Julian is being attacked and yet nobody has come running to his defense like everyone does if anyone calls
out Moaing on his constant negativity. Julian is passionate, I appreciate it, but I don't take everything he says literally and empty my bank account into tsla shares based on his posts. Moaing takes the negative on everything then boasts when he is right as if a broken clock isn't right twice a day. Many of us long term Bulls have increased our bank account substantially over the years, I don't need Maoing crying wolf all day long to save me. Shorts, or those that can only see the world as "the sky is falling" at all times think they appear more intelligent for some reason. Wrong.

That being said, both are welcome to post here. It's really easy to skip posts you don't want to read or hit ignore. I've noticed those on my ignore list haven't been posting since the stock turned positive. Where are you Calgary? Tftf?

So would you say that your i3 is a 10g car based purely based on the fact that in some dimensions it is smaller than a Nissan Versa and that you are an idiot for spending 30 g's to much? I don't think Julian is being attacked at all, if his posts are incorrect, he should be corrected.

 

[sundaymorning]

what I don't like is how Julian is being attacked and yet nobody has come running to his defense like everyone does if anyone calls out Moaing on his constant negativity. Julian is passionate, I appreciate it, but I don't take everything he says literally and empty my bank account into tsla shares based on his posts. Moaing takes the negative on everything then boasts when he is right as if a broken clock isn't right twice a day. Many of us long term Bulls have increased our bank account substantially over the years, I don't need Maoing crying wolf all day long to save me. Shorts, or those that can only see the world as "the sky is falling" at all times think they appear more intelligent for some reason. Wrong.

Agreed. Keep posting Julian, long term is where it's at. For short term, trade on this: I see the stock rising, there will be resistance at 170s, but if we break 170s we can go to 180s, where there will be more resistance at 190s and 200s. But on the flips side, I can also see the stock dropping to 150s, testing the 140s if the macros are bad and X doesn't ramp we can see 130s. wtf kind of short term analysis is that? Flip flop flip flop, the stock is up, let's flip and talk it down. Rinse and repeat... Hey, grow some balls and invest, or stand on the sidelines, but let's not attack a guy whose doing his due diligence and confident in his own investment thesis.

 

[AlMc]

No surprise needed but it wood be welcomed if a positive surprise happens

3 points of "known information" you reference are things most of us on here(except the minority of shorts/bears here) believe or know will happen, but I think that the shorts think only one or two of those things will happen: Model 3 reveal and a few shorts may also think the X will ramp up, but I don't think any shorts agree that Tesla's 2016 financials will be 'good'

I have been disappointed with the failure of TM/EM to meet guidance recently so while we do know the things you listed will happen we don't know 'when' they will happen and how smoothly they will happen. When TM/EM start showing they can execute is when we will see 'good' financials and a short squeeze of some consequence (IMO).

I was VERY encouraged by Wheeler, the new CFO. IMO, if he can pull this off and get us to 'good' 2016 financials I would like to see him be COO. He looks like a man that can deliver the steak..:wink:

 

[Fallenone]

What's your take on Wheeler's "cash flow from core operations" and the "asset-based line"? Personally I'm not comfortable with these as they seem cheating in some sense.

I have been disappointed with the failure of TM/EM to meet guidance recently so while we do know the things you listed will happen we don't know 'when' they will happen and how smoothly they will happen. When TM/EM start showing they can execute is when we will see 'good' financials and a short squeeze of some consequence (IMO).

I was VERY encouraged by Wheeler, the new CFO. IMO, if he can pull this off and get us to 'good' 2016 financials I would like to see him be COO. He looks like a man that can deliver the steak..:wink:

 

[Intl Professor]

Good article in Forbes about the disruptive "Black Swan" potential of TESLA. The 7 in 10 theory is interesting....first I've heard of it.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/woodmac...k-swan-on-the-energy-industry/2/#66e254f5124f

The link is to page two. Page one attempts to assess the market for M3.