I hope to see plenty of posts in this thread by both Julian and Jesse. It's a healthy discussion. If you find someone's point of view tiresome, just skip over their posts. That's what I do with the posts of a few individuals.
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I hope to see plenty of posts in this thread by both Julian and Jesse. It's a healthy discussion. If you find someone's point of view tiresome, just skip over their posts. That's what I do with the posts of a few individuals.
stealthology
Member
Elon Musk on Twitter:
The Kochs Are Plotting A Multimillion-Dollar Assault On Electric Vehicles
IMO it seems reasonable to expect at least one Model 3 reservation for every Model S currently on the road. Tesla's primary advertising is word of mouth from happy customers, and it's a freakin refundable $1K deposit. 100K+ in short order following the reveal I'd say. The Model S blew away cars in its class (especially the high performance version), and I expect the same to be the case with the Model 3.
The Kochs Are Plotting A Multimillion-Dollar Assault On Electric Vehicles
IMO it seems reasonable to expect at least one Model 3 reservation for every Model S currently on the road. Tesla's primary advertising is word of mouth from happy customers, and it's a freakin refundable $1K deposit. 100K+ in short order following the reveal I'd say. The Model S blew away cars in its class (especially the high performance version), and I expect the same to be the case with the Model 3.
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ludicrousspeed
Member
I'd tend to agree, but there's been a perform storm of 1) Low oil 2) slow Model X ramp and 3) Bad Macro Environment have that have taken an unprecedented toll on the stock. At $167, TSLA is down more than 41% from 52-week high (don't think that's ever happened before) while the S&P is down only 10% from its 52-week. It's clear that there's more to the fall than the general market. Tesla isn't just amplifying the market, the market simply does not trust the company's projections anymore and this is being reflected by the lowest share price and highest short interest in 2+ years. The bar is set lower for Tesla than it has been since before they proved they can make a profit, when most of the general public people had never heard of the Model S (or Tesla). They can surprise a ton of people by accomplishing any of these individually, especially collectively:
-Have a few thousand Model Xs on the road for a 3+ months w/o real production/vehicle problems
-Show a physical car at the model 3 reveal (still can't believe all the speculation on this)
-100k+ M3 reservations by Jan. Not everybody expects high reservation #s like the TMC members
-1/4 of the Gigafactory opening and operating by this summer, along with any TE volume. Similar to 2013, Most of the general public doesn't know what the Gigafactory (or Tesla energy) is.
-Deliver 80K vehicles this year. Most difficult IMO.
The perfect storm affecting the SP that I just mentioned will not last forever (maybe besides oil - ironic.) Almost every article about the Q4 earnings seemingly questions everything Musk says, especially about delivery guidance. They will recover once they prove all the arguments as against them (that moved the stock down in the first place) as incorrect. Especially if the price of oil suddenly rebounds, that will probably kill two birds with one stone, as the market would most likely follow.
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Gerasimental
Member
For a moment there I thought I was going to read an entire ER/CC related post from you without any mention of steak or sizzle! Kept me handing right to the last word there! Agree about Wheeler though.
BTW: Over in X forum, VIN P1XXX has been assigned and it looks like at least 2 X70Ds have 'entered the production queue' - whatever that means.
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I case anyone thought Mercedes might partner with Tesla again...
S.Korea's SK Innovation to supply EV battery cells for Mercedes-Benz
S.Korea's SK Innovation to supply EV battery cells for Mercedes-Benz
flankspeed8
Member
These are the manufactures that will be in trouble long term. Tunnel vision can kill you. At least the others are trying. There can and will be winners in addition Tesla. Tesla will just have the most potential for long term success as they have paid their dues. In the near-term, the whole BEV race is captive to macro and economic realities.
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Personally I would say that attitude and tone matters and there clearly is a cult of personality....The platitudes can be a little much and in the end we all have to think for ourselves and some do not like to be name-called or insulted, even if it is veiled and tacit.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
It's not for PR. It's for us to understand how the business is doing stripping out the heavy growth investments. What they are doing is fine because you see the methodology and have the other figures to compare. If the figures were hidden that would be a different story, but everything is at ones disposal.
+1. It seems that we have a CFO that is a bit more street-wise.
Sometimes it's good to let the fish breed in the barrel, sometimes it's good to shoot the fish in the barrel. That way you shoot the most fish.
Yes it's a form of BS, but if you look at the opposing team, the BS is rotting and stinking from the head:
$18K+ loss per car sold. The more they sell the more they lose. Entirely dependent on subsidies. Ripping off Nevada. Burning cash will go bust without a financing round, demand slashed by low oil prices, competition will flatten them yada yada yada.
Explaining operating leverage in layman's terms is NOTHING. It's positively inoffensive when considering the torrent of malicious & total BS they are up against.
dc_h
Active Member
Rob,
I think everyone agrees with what you are saying that the Bolt is not a Tesla or ICE killer, but there are a few people out there who will buy a GM EV. Brand matters in different ways to different people and a few people in a world of 7 billion is probably at least 20 or 30 thousand. It is a ZEV credit killer, but it is also an attempt by GM to hedge in case EV tech proves better. There are no Model 3 or Tesla killers out there, but some people still think that without ZEV credits and with a few EV loss leaders Tesla can't survive. I did see the Bolt at the Chicago auto show. Looks like a nice car, but there are not going to be a lot of people shelling out 30,000 for a smallish CUV and definitely not me.
I think everyone agrees with what you are saying that the Bolt is not a Tesla or ICE killer, but there are a few people out there who will buy a GM EV. Brand matters in different ways to different people and a few people in a world of 7 billion is probably at least 20 or 30 thousand. It is a ZEV credit killer, but it is also an attempt by GM to hedge in case EV tech proves better. There are no Model 3 or Tesla killers out there, but some people still think that without ZEV credits and with a few EV loss leaders Tesla can't survive. I did see the Bolt at the Chicago auto show. Looks like a nice car, but there are not going to be a lot of people shelling out 30,000 for a smallish CUV and definitely not me.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I agree with this. There's nothing shady in the "new" metric - the name describes what the number is supposed to show, any investor can use that information as he/she sees fit. All the data is in the financials anyway, we can all construct our own metrics. I've always had an aversion toward the much accepted term "burning cash" for example, to me it sounds like very poor use of capital to burn it. "Investing in future growth" seems much better. It's all in the eye of the beholder, as always.
Runarbt
Active Member
+1
Very nicely put. I hadn't thought about it like this, but a very nice way of Tesla to show that the bull "case" of "more cars = higher loss" doesn't hold up at all.
AFAIK the 10 kWh Powerwall cells are the same cells as those in the S/X
Most cells for Tesla Energy including all PowerPack are MNC, not the NCA types used in Model S/X. So I doubt that much excess pre-silicon anode 18650 cell inventory will be used for Tesla Energy.
That math doesn't check out. a 300 mile pack needs to be >50% larger than a 200 mile pack to account for 50% longer range and a larger vehicle mass.
I doubt that Tesla can hit 200 mi "usable range minimum" with a 50 kWh pack, but even if they did they would need more than 75 kWh to hit 300 mi range.
I think this is an objective assessment - that the market credibility of TM/EM guidance has been somewhat blunted by Model X dramas - but I would caution that a little bit of root-cause analysis is useful here.
It is incredibly difficult to provide accurate guidance on sales numbers for example when those sales are supposed to include a product that is still in development. During 2014 and 2015 that would be the Model X with two or three aborted launch dates. However this was specifically owing to a mixture of execution issues that were unforeseen and compounded by feature creep - although the latter will pay dividends (dividends with a small d for the time being for the avoidance of doubt).
It is much easier to give clear guidance with respect to deliveries of developed products that are actually on a production plan. One only needs to look at the quality of mid to late 2012 and 2013 delivery guidance when Model S left development and entered production. The quality of that guidance was superb, typically sand-bagging by circa 5%.
Where I think the information advantage can be gained now is to appreciate that TM/EM is now back in the saddle when it comes to control over its production and delivery planning AND therefore the accuracy of its guidance AND at the same time the market on balance remains somewhat 'believe it when I see it' about guidance.
I strongly suspect that Tesla's inspirational internal target is exactly what Musk has hinted it is. To double the fleet size annually. Full year guidance is 10~20% lower than that (80-90K vehicle deliveries).
Assuming the market is mistakenly skeptical of 80-90K deliveries by 5-10% and Tesla confidently over-delivers by 10-20%, this is a classic recipe for upside surprise that is only improved by the existence of skepticism.
Again the trick here IMO is to spot the step change in advance and trade accordingly. There is no point in following the pack or being one of those that is surprised.
ModelXTracker.com has the highest assigned production VIN as 1101 and the highest delivered production VIN as 328. We might even get 2,000 Model X deliveries in Q1 which makes the 16,000 target look a lot easier to hit. At the very least I would expect 1,000 at this point.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Maybe it's because I didn't have a formal business education. I thought what you described is PR. Showing the glass is half full instead of half empty. But my comment is more on the ABL than the cash fliw from core change. Though on reflection, the two are linked.
dreamingof3
Member
To me this is both bullish and concerning. They have deep pockets for sure. The fact they are afraid of Tesla speaks volumes to me. The conspiracy theorist in me wants to say they are behind the short interest and the smear campaign on Tesla.
SP crapping the bed again after going green for a second. I was so optimistic yesterday pre-market. Shame on me!
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Correct. Formal business education LOL (sorry I laugh because its just silly) most of it is from experience. For me it's about metrics, but PR is more about spinning things in a different light (fine line) while keeping other things in the dark. With the ABL it was more of a signal to say, no capital raise will be needed because Tesla is maturing and growing and are being taken more seriously.
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The difference is now there's the internet and people are offended so easily. Good luck to those guys who operate using old world tactics in a new world.
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