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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
*Falling demand when seen in relation to further increased production capacity. In other words an increased demand but increasing less than production capacity is set to increase - a potential future mismatch between the curve for demand and the curve for potential factory output.
(Oh boy were back to this topic...)
Edit: I'm with vgrinshpun on this; I see this move as a possible aggressive demand stimulus that may be the result of them aiming for >2000/week in the second half of 2016. Perhaps up to 20 or even 25 MMCPM???
It makes sense on many levels: if they're already at 15-16 MMCPM now, why stop there? So long as they are able to source batteries and handle logistics why not stay in high continuous growth until M3 and just "hit the ground running"?
Why sell a product at lower profits if you can sell the same product at higher profits?
Are not there also customers who are perfectly happy with S75? Aren't there enough customers who want S75?
I am sure customers want S60. That is not the question. The question is is not there enough customers for S75 to buy everything tesla can build?
Even if things are so, this is not 'sky is falling' situation, it just may be that tesla is finally exhausting the inflow of customers for $+80k cars and is ready to also service the +$60k customers.
On the contrary - it's a brilliant move. Now, instead buying 70kWh and no Autopilot and/or glass roof, buyers can get more options they want while their car has range they need. Tesla knows that most people are more comfortable with >85kWh battery and most will upgrade later (if Tesla did not think that - they would just sell 60kWh battery).
Krugerrand
Meow
But step 2 has already happened in the real world by Tesla. Yep, they test and validate in house first. That's a duh. But then the new tech (which is pretty much everything Tesla) goes out to a small select group because there's always something that gets missed/over looked because nobody can think of every use case/scenario.
Example: West Coasters always get their cars first. They got the first Model S's. Why? Because then when a problem shows up the cars are easily called back and fixed. That happened. They did the same with the Model X and AWD and they did/do software updates in small batches over a period of time, and the list goes on. And Model 3 is going to be like that only taken to the next level with employees trying them out first.
So yes, #2 happens all the time.
The slide you reference refers to Fiscal Year 2017 for beginning of GF cell production, not calendar year.
Panasonic's fiscal year ends March 31; it has already announced FY2016 financial results. http://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2016/04/en160428-6/en160428-6-1.pdf
We are already in Panasonic's FY2017.
At this point, I don't really care why the 60 is being rolled out. You can put me down in the "production is increasing" camp rather than the "demand is falling" camp, but it really doesn't matter. S/X only needs to hold down the fort for another 1-1.5 years and then all bets are off - Model 3 (which has monstrous, undeniable demand) is taking over.
When people look to BMW sales/company health, they look to the 3 series. Everything else is noise. S/X will continue to sell, but if sales come in 1000 lower than expected people aren't going to care soon. It's all about the 3.
When people look to BMW sales/company health, they look to the 3 series. Everything else is noise. S/X will continue to sell, but if sales come in 1000 lower than expected people aren't going to care soon. It's all about the 3.
Could be expanded production too. If they can produce more cars and tap into people waiting for the 3, why not do it?
But the point is there's no evidence of significant increase of production, on the contrary, we have evidence of stable production, if not less than guided earlier (shareholders meeting vs Q1 guidance)
Krugerrand
Meow
Why not simply give customers what they want because they've asked and you can? It's the whole point of Tesla. To get as many EVs on the road as possible, as quickly as possible. Since when has the almighty dollar ruled what Tesla does or does not do? Did they not just raise money to bring Model 3 to market faster?
The answer to that question is irrelevant. What matters is that more EVs - of whatever variant - get on the road, yesterday. If making a lower entry Model S again does that while everyone is waiting for the 3, then drive on Tesla!
MartinAustin
Active Member
So it's "possible" when guesstimating that Tesla is producing below guidance but "cannot be" if they are producing more?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
For TE only.
Opening new line(s) in Japan in the same time frame is interesting. It might be too soon but it's probably just a matter of time until they build lines in Japan using the new equipment that they are developing at the GF.
Not in my view. I believe that what Musk said was taken out of context and given the meaning of guidance. It was not.
The guidance is contained in Q1 shareholders letter, and it includes increasing total MX/MS production to above 2000cars/week in H2.
Tesla's guidance is rarely, if ever, on the low end. That's one of the reason for them accomplishing so many great things but still people feel they always miss the target. It is possible they will have a surprise on the good side, but I don't think it likely
They did this de-risking with introduction of dual motor drive in MS before MX, and will likely do the same with 20700 based battery pack - by introducing it in MS/MX before using 20700 cells in M3.
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