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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Am I wrong about this? Will anyone else be surprised/disappointed if Q2 is only 16.5k, or is that within expectations? (would require 25k avg for Q3/Q4 to meet low end of full year guidance)
It depends on how many Powerpacks they sell. My working assumption is that one Powerpack generates at least as much cashflow as an average vehicle. So if they sell 16.5k cars plus 8.5k packs, I'm as happy as if they sold 25k cars. Maybe even happier.
 
Within. As long as full year is reaffirmed.

Even with full year reaffirmed, wouldn't it mean that we are no longer at 750/week for Model X and confirm the fear of further delays? That number was just from the 4/4 deliveries update so Q2 should not have been affected.

BTW I am not saying this will be the case. Just hypotheticals in the case that Ben Kallo is right. Personally I would be disappointed. And if Ben is wrong the markets will react positively.

The market being both shocked and disappointed by this is the whole basis of my current trade. I think people saying it's priced in already are failing too realize how oblivious and generally incompetent the market is on things like this. It's priced in for us, but it will blindside the market, imo.

The market has the Q1 deliveries total of 14820, and whatever that means for revenue, priced in. It does not have any Q2 guidance shortfall priced in. Currently street estimate for Q2 revenue is $2.09B, which is about 30% higher than Q1. Ben Kallo's 16.5k is only 11% higher than Q1 deliveries, so a lot would have to be made up by TE to meet Q2 estimates.
 
How the car industry trumped banking for sociopathic corporate behaviour | Karel Williams

A few low points:
How the car industry trumped banking for sociopathic corporate behavior


Official British tests show on-the-road emissions for 37 current and recent models of car are on average five times laboratory levels.
Since the financial crisis of 2008, we have had multiple scandals about banks and bankers behaving badly – from the misselling of payment protection insurance and interest-rate hedges, to the rigging of Libor and foreign exchange rates, and corporate collusion in money laundering. The banking industry has been singled out for its unhealthy internal culture. But the car emissions scandal shows that sociopathic corporate behaviour is widespread, and its effects are even worse elsewhere.

The banking scandals were about many different things, because financial services are diverse. But in cars, if we leave aside Mitsubishi’s rigging of fuel efficiency tests, the big issue is the gaming of the metrics of diesel emissions by European manufacturers.

At least three major European firms have fitted diesel vehicles with devices that switch off key parts of the emissions control systems when cars are being driven on the open road, and switch them on when they are under test in the emissions laboratory or MOT test bay.

Diesel cars have a negligible market share in Japan and the US because national regulations have set strict limits on nitrogen dioxide and particulate emissions. But European regulations focused on carbon dioxide emissions, which could be easily reduced after the late 1990s by using electronic direct injection. Diesel cars, which had less than 15% of the EU new car market in 1990, had more than 50% by 2010 because EU regulators had allowed the European industry to market pretend-clean diesel cars with the lure of low CO2 and high mpg.

If there is an industry-wide culture of gaming emissions, we might also assume that companies are gaming crash safety
It looked like the classic “one bad apple” when VW was caught cheating the US regulations: a company with governance problems arrogantly decided to push diesels in the US after going its own way on technology designed to reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides. But increasingly it looks like there was an industry-wide culture of gaming the EU regulations. Mercedes, Opel-Vauxhall and VW have enabled low-temperature sensors that can legitimately switch off emission controls in wintry conditions to operate in temperatures as high as 17C; Fiat is under investigation in Germany for allegedly fitting a timer that cuts back emissions controls just after the 20-minute run time of the official EU test.

Gaming must be pervasive when official British tests show on-the-road emissions for 37 current and recent models are on average five times laboratory levels. And this gaming of the metrics is worse than banking in four specific ways.

First, the consequences are more dire. Some small businesses paid a high price for misselling, but most British consumers lost little financially that they could not claim back. The emissions scandal has caused a public health crisis about air quality in all our larger cities and right across Europe. London is expected to be in breach of NO2 safe limits for the next decade – and the official British estimate is that NO2 pollution currently causes 23,500 premature deaths every year.

Secondly, the management excuses are weaker. With Libor, it was regrettably true that senior managers in investment banks often did not know what their traders were doing. With VW, we are still unclear about who knew what and when; but the other European car companies are committee-run corporates. Their senior managers should have known what their engineers were doing – and must have suspected what other companies’ engineers had been doing because they all benchmark against competing models.

Thirdly, the undisclosed scandals are probably larger. In finance, many of the scandals are out in the public domain. But emissions gaming only came to light because new portable testing equipment allowed NGOs to test on-road emissions. If there is an industry-wide culture of gaming emissions, it is reasonable to assume that companies are also gaming crash safety.

Finally, there is no sensible discussion about how to re-regulate cars. Nobody had the courage to break up the banks, but the British have at least ring-fenced retail from investment banking and raised capital requirements. On car regulation, however, the EU has been captured by industry lobbyists backed by national governments; after official tests showed egregious on-the-road pollution, the British transport minister, Patrick McLoughlin, could do no more than say the “industry needs to raise its game”.

The car industry will try to distract us from all this by proposing scrappage schemes for the oldest diesel cars and pushing stories about driverless cars. Concerned citizens should instead ask the companies to make amends for the damage they have done in a very practical way, by prioritising the development of low-emissions city vehicles to replace the buses, taxis and delivery vans that are choking us to death. What about an electric light van suitable for city delivery of internet orders?
 
Ben Kallo of Baird issued note today, maintaining Outperform and PT of $300, but cut expected GM based on the slower than expected MX ramp. He also estimated Q2 deliveries at 16.5K, impacted by MS refresh and ramp of MX. This makes 2H back loaded to 52.6K deliveries to meet the yearly 80K-90K target, which Kallo think the company is on track to achieve.

Kallo also does not believe that company needs a raise in near term due to $0.4B inflow of M3 deposits
Wow, -10% margin for X. That's something I wasn't expecting. I was thinking low to mid positive single digits.
 
Any one tempted to add at this price? Debating if I should wait till ER for more clarity

Personally, I like to spread out my buying so that if ER + CC are negative I have dry powder available and if they're positive I took advantage of this dip. We're dealing with the unknown in the short run but with long-term gains very likely. I bought some shares (but not calls) at about 240 today.
 
Am I wrong about this? Will anyone else be surprised/disappointed if Q2 is only 16.5k, or is that within expectations? (would require 25k avg for Q3/Q4 to meet low end of full year guidance)

If predicted 16.5k vehicles for Q2F16 would turn out to be a true number, TSLA would repeat last year and end up missing the full year guidance at a higher probability if last year is of any predictable indication of this year. I for one would be surprised and disappointed.
 
Surprised we have not bounced at all after hitting the bollinger bands. Has to be attributed to this note. 16.5k for Q2 would be tracking well below the 750 a week for Model X that was last stated. Dave also had some concerns over Q2 guidance.

I am attempting a bollinger band play with options that expire in 90 min. About 80% of the time the BB's hold, and nothing is really that bad today.
 
Wow, -10% margin for X. That's something I wasn't expecting. I was thinking low to mid positive single digits.

Honest question. Can someone please illustrate for me how automotive margin is materially impacted by timing delays of MX? (This may have been explained earlier, but I couldn't find it).

I think I understand how delays could impact margin by a couple percentage points, but 10-15%? So far, we are aware of some part changes. (Some of which were paid for by the suppliers). Those can't have that much of an impact. Plus, we're not aware of anything related to the drivetrain, battery, etc. In other words, the physical parts that caused the delay don't comprise a large %-age of COGS, so having to replace those broken parts can't impact margin too much.

Otherwise, delays simply result in more labor to assemble a single car, plus a likely increase in warranty reserves.

I'm not sure what a reasonable assumption for assembly labor is (this is where I need help). For MS, it seems to me that assembly labor is likely 10-20% of the total cost. To decrease automotive margin from 22% to 10% therefore would take a 1.6x - 2.0x increase in the time it takes to assemble. I'd understand a 1.1x increase, but nothing that significant.

Similarly, I'm not sure how increases in warranty reserves can be that high. (Unless they already started higher than normal because Tesla anticipates more warranty issues).

Where I get particularly confounded is when I look at $'s instead of percentages. Remember, we're talking about cars with an average selling price of around $125,000 in the 1st quarter. Even with the delays and likely increased warranty charges, is it really reasonable to assume that's its taking $15,000 more to produce these MX's than Tesla was able to spend on MS last year? Or better stated, $15k more than Tesla expects to achieve longer term for MX?

(Unrelated, but I definitely see how delays impact cash flow. (1) to the extent that they didn't get as much positive cash flow, that's bad. (2) to the extent that they had to unexpectedly increase R&D spending to solve some of their engineering mistakes, that's bad).
 
Am I wrong about this? Will anyone else be surprised/disappointed if Q2 is only 16.5k, or is that within expectations? (would require 25k avg for Q3/Q4 to meet low end of full year guidance)

I recall from Q1 End of quarter "deliveries" press release there was a decent amount of MXs that were produced but couldn't be delivered before End of quarter. Parts shortages... So, I'd expect those MXs delivered in Q2 will be materially help to Q2 deliveries.

Also, just anecdotally but I See new MXs around so South Orange county all the time now. Like everyday. Lots of them. Saw another today with Tesla Factory plates.
 
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I recall from Q1 End of quarter "deliveries" press release there was a decent amount of MXs that were produced but couldn't be delivered before End of quarter. Parts shortages... So, I'd expect those MXs delivered in Q2 will be materially help to Q2 deliveries.

Right. I am not personally looking for 16.5k, which is why it would be a bit of a surprise (maybe for the market too) if Ben is right. Anyone know how his track record is on things like this?
 
What makes Anton think he'll get a refund on 20 Model 3 reservations when the contract is limited to two? That could be an amusing $20k lesson.

1631645318-j9078.jpg
 
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What makes Anton think he'll get a refund on 20 Model 3 reservations when the contract is limited to two? That could be an amusing $20k lesson.

1631645318-j9078.jpg


Assuming Anton is telling the truth, which I doubt, Tesla now knows who is is. They also know he is bad for business, and assuming what he wrote is true, he must have done some funky things to successfully place 20 deposits. Assuming what he mentioned was at one point possible, I'm confident Elon didn't include his 20 deposits in the overall deposit figures. Unless Anton has 20 credit cards under 20 different names, and 20 different billing addresses, it would be very obvious he made 20 deposits.

From Anton's article:

I followed the instructions and kept entering more and more refundable deposits. As it turns out, you don't even need a separate email address, separate phone number or even a separate credit card. You can just keep clicking for more refundable deposits. I stopped at 20 cars, figuring that I had long proved my point as soon as I had more than two cars, which was the supposed limit.

I suspect Anton might have just made Tesla's "blacklist".
 
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I recall from Q1 End of quarter "deliveries" press release there was a decent amount of MXs that were produced but couldn't be delivered before End of quarter. Parts shortages... So, I'd expect those MXs delivered in Q2 will be materially help to Q2 deliveries.

Also, just anecdotally but I See new MXs around so South Orange county all the time now. Like everyday. Lots of them. Saw another today with Tesla Factory plates.

I guess we will have our first assessment of the situation next week, when INSIDEEVs posts their April sales scorecard
 
Assuming Anton is telling the truth, which I doubt, Tesla now knows who is is. They also know he is bad for business, and assuming what he wrote is true, he must have done some funky things to successfully place 20 deposits. Assuming what he mentioned was at one point possible, I'm confident Elon didn't include his 20 deposits in the overall deposit figures. Unless Anton has 20 credit cards under 20 different names, and 20 different billing addresses, it would be very obvious he made 20 deposits.

I suspect Anton might have just made Tesla's "blacklist".
Probably just used his mom's credit cards.
 
Honest question. Can someone please illustrate for me how automotive margin is materially impacted by timing delays of MX? (This may have been explained earlier, but I couldn't find it).

I think I understand how delays could impact margin by a couple percentage points, but 10-15%? So far, we are aware of some part changes. (Some of which were paid for by the suppliers). Those can't have that much of an impact. Plus, we're not aware of anything related to the drivetrain, battery, etc. In other words, the physical parts that caused the delay don't comprise a large %-age of COGS, so having to replace those broken parts can't impact margin too much.

Otherwise, delays simply result in more labor to assemble a single car, plus a likely increase in warranty reserves.

I'm not sure what a reasonable assumption for assembly labor is (this is where I need help). For MS, it seems to me that assembly labor is likely 10-20% of the total cost. To decrease automotive margin from 22% to 10% therefore would take a 1.6x - 2.0x increase in the time it takes to assemble. I'd understand a 1.1x increase, but nothing that significant.

Similarly, I'm not sure how increases in warranty reserves can be that high. (Unless they already started higher than normal because Tesla anticipates more warranty issues).

Where I get particularly confounded is when I look at $'s instead of percentages. Remember, we're talking about cars with an average selling price of around $125,000 in the 1st quarter. Even with the delays and likely increased warranty charges, is it really reasonable to assume that's its taking $15,000 more to produce these MX's than Tesla was able to spend on MS last year? Or better stated, $15k more than Tesla expects to achieve longer term for MX?

(Unrelated, but I definitely see how delays impact cash flow. (1) to the extent that they didn't get as much positive cash flow, that's bad. (2) to the extent that they had to unexpectedly increase R&D spending to solve some of their engineering mistakes, that's bad).
There could be additional tooling costs added to do adjustments. Labor cost may be more because the extra QC may be more time consuming than we think. And the real thing I think may explain this huge drop in gross margin could be defected goods. It could be the case that some cars were just beyond QC/repair and they made another.
 
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