Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[tanner]

Jon McNeill, Tesla president of global sales and service, speaking at the Beijing auto show, said that the planned production rate for Fremont in 2020 is now at 600,000 cars.

Tesla knows the one feature that will make it a success in China

That's some good news!

 

[jesselivenomore]

Jon McNeill, Tesla president of global sales and service, speaking at the Beijing auto show, said that the planned production rate for Fremont in 2020 is now at 600,000 cars.

Tesla knows the one feature that will make it a success in China

That's not the planned production rate in 2020. His exact words were: "We have a factory in California that's sized for about 600,000 vehicles a year. In addition we are looking for an additional factory as well. That very well may be in China."

He is just commenting on the Fremont capacity, not any new planned production rate.

 

[austinEV]

That's not the planned production rate in 2020. His exact words were: "We have a factory in California that's sized for about 600,000 vehicles a year. In addition we are looking for an additional factory as well. That very well may be in China."

He is just commenting on the Fremont capacity, not any new planned production rate.

It is still significant. We all talk about the 500,000 Nummi rate as though it were a sacred number that can definitely be reached and cannot be exceeded. In fact we really don't know if the higher degree of vertical integration has the actual fact of reducing the total output to <500k, or if Tesla magic allows it to be higher. This suggests as good or higher than the Nummi number.

 

[Papafox]

Here is my take on the price hike for powerpacks: They just needed a different starting price. The customers for these are placing large orders with buyers whose job it is to secure favorable pricing. So they cannot (as they were) lead with their best price. They literally marked it up so they could negotiate down. They aren't getting this new price, but they had to increase it to guarantee they at least got the old price. My opinion.

Supporting your theory is the statement by Tesla that powerpacks may be used by larger houses for energy storage. I think a buyer of a single powerpack gets the list price and buyers of a fleet of powerpacks get a substantially-discounted price. The amount of discount they receive is influenced by supply and demand at that moment.

 

[austinEV]

Supporting your theory is the statement by Tesla that powerpacks may be used by larger houses for energy storage. I think a buyer of a single powerpack gets the list price and buyers of a fleet of powerpacks get a substantially-discounted price. The amount of discount they receive is influenced by supply and demand at that moment.

Exactly. The small buyer is penalized for the outsized trouble they represent and large buyers get the real price. In the same way that I have to pay $1.00 for a resistor from Digikey or 50 for that same dollar in volume.

 

[kenliles]

Exactly. The small buyer is penalized for the outsized trouble they represent and large buyers get the real price. In the same way that I have to pay $1.00 for a resistor from Digikey or 50 for that same dollar in volume.

that would also provide for bulk OEM pricing to SCTY, which would in turn charge individual customers the matching retail price, who actually handles those individual customer inefficiencies as part of their service.
Both parties making profits accordingly

 

[jesselivenomore]

It is still significant. We all talk about the 500,000 Nummi rate as though it were a sacred number that can definitely be reached and cannot be exceeded. In fact we really don't know if the higher degree of vertical integration has the actual fact of reducing the total output to <500k, or if Tesla magic allows it to be higher. This suggests as good or higher than the Nummi number.

Right. Just making a distinction between production capacity and planned production rate. A change in the former is helpful. A change in the latter is materially market moving.

 

[AlMc]

Jon McNeill, Tesla president of global sales and service, speaking at the Beijing auto show, said that the annual production capacity for Fremont is now at 600,000 cars.

Tesla knows the one feature that will make it a success in China

There were at least 3 TMC members on a factory tour last year just before the stockholders meeting. Our TM guide indicated that the Freemont site was capable of far more than 500-600k we are discussing here.
Now....this was one person and they could be wrong. I and the other TMC posters just about fell over....combination of shock and disbelief.

 

[austinEV]

There were at least 3 TMC members on a factory tour last year just before the stockholders meeting. Our TM guide indicated that the Freemont site was capable of far more than 500-600k we are discussing here.
Now....this was one person and they could be wrong. I and the other TMC posters just about fell over....combination of shock and disbelief.

It is simply unacceptable that I have not done one of those tours. My priorities need work.

 

[aznt1217]

Right. Just making a distinction between production capacity and planned production rate. A change in the former is helpful. A change in the latter is materially market moving.

They cite the 500K number because that was what GM/Toyota was producing when they were making Geo Metros. Keep in mind, Tesla has been able to make far more use of space due to robot placement and the fact that technology has advanced significantly since then. In addition, they were able to reconfigure things as if it were a blank slate-- quite a rare opportunity. Pair this with LEAN manufacturing and continuous improvement and the fact that the product itself is inherently cleaner. Production capacity of 500K is possible-- it just depends if it's probable.

EDIT: Have work experience with manufacturing and efficiency planning

 

[austinEV]

Maybe I should move to your state (actually been on my short list since earlier this week). I'm not a morning person and that hurts my trading quality; +25% sleep would help me immensely (Central Time Zone). I'm so dense right now I had to look up your profile to calculate where you are from (it's not auto-displayed on mobile). When your profile did reveal location, it suddenly made sense to me that that would be true, given your handle.

Austin TX. So I love BBQ, dealership protection laws, Big Oil and Ted Cruz. (One of those things is true)

 

[Johan]

TSLA holding up well, all things considered (AAPL, TWTR).

Not directly TSLA related but could have positive spill over effect:

 

[austinEV]

They cite the 500K number because that was what GM/Toyota was producing when they were making Geo Metros. Keep in mind, Tesla has been able to make far more use of space due to robot placement and the fact that technology has advanced significantly since then. In addition, they were able to reconfigure things as if it were a blank slate-- quite a rare opportunity. Pair this with LEAN manufacturing and continuous improvement and the fact that the product itself is inherently cleaner. Production capacity of 500K is possible-- it just depends if it's probable.

EDIT: Have work experience with manufacturing and efficiency planning

Why does that follow? The factory isn't laid out in a way that is optimal for making Tesla cars; it wasn't originally laid out for that. Also, the fancy robot lines, while fancy, are optimized for flexibility (I assume) at the expense of straight efficiency. Add in the fact that they are building more of the car in Fremont than GM/Toyota attempted (drive trains for instance). Based on all this I always figured that it would be a challenge to do 500k. It's got to be easier to make Geo metros. Was Nummi not at 100%? Maybe it was a 1 million Geo factory but they just didn't need that capacity?

 

[Gerasimental]

2018 ???

I was certainly not expecting that. Don't see much chance of TSLA spillover though.

 

[Johan]

2018 ???

I was certainly not expecting that. Don't see much chance of TSLA spillover though.

Window of opportunity happens every 26 months. Elon isn't getting any younger.

 

[Subhuman]

TSLA holding up well, all things considered (AAPL, TWTR).

Not directly TSLA related but could have positive spill over effect:

View attachment 174156

"Red" Dragon. Love it!

 

[FredTMC]

Jon McNeill, Tesla president of global sales and service, speaking at the Beijing auto show, said that the annual production capacity for Fremont is now at 600,000 cars.

Tesla knows the one feature that will make it a success in China

This CNBC article says bioweapon defense mode MAY make it to model S. Ummm. Already announced bitches...

That's classic media for ya. You'd think they'd fact check this *sugar*. If I thought it would help, I'd give them my contact info.

 

[Lessmog]

2018 ???

I was certainly not expecting that. Don't see much chance of TSLA spillover though.

In my distant youth there were tractor propeller planes pulling long streamers with ads for whatever: circus in town, car dealership, etc. Times have changed!

 

[FredTMC]

It is still significant. We all talk about the 500,000 Nummi rate as though it were a sacred number that can definitely be reached and cannot be exceeded. In fact we really don't know if the higher degree of vertical integration has the actual fact of reducing the total output to <500k, or if Tesla magic allows it to be higher. This suggests as good or higher than the Nummi number.

AFAIK, This is the first time any tesla rep has said Fremont is sized for 600K. Prior to this, they've always referenced Nummi as 500K but never gave any projections for Tesla's possible output.

 

[FredTMC]

F is up slightly today. GM is flat. TSLA not holding up today as well as it has been. Just saying... But $250 seems to be very well defended.