Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[jhm]

OMG Tesla may have just discovered a major new oilfield with over 20 billion barrels of reserve!

Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

 

[SteveG3]

throwing out two predictions for tomorrow,

there will be Tesla stores where Model 3 orders are "sales representative constrained" (a line throughout the day due to supply of sales reps not meeting demand to make deposits)

Elon will mention this (though not use a term with the word "sales" in it)

 

[Fallenone]

throwing out two predictions for tomorrow,

there will be Tesla stores where Model 3 orders are "sales representative constrained" (a line throughout the day due to supply of sales reps not meeting demand to make deposits)

Elon will mention this (though not use a term with the word "sales" in it)

I don't think it will be at that level. Reservation only takes a few minutes. Let's say 5 min. 10 hours of store hours for just one sales can serve 120 reservations. Having 3 sales would be more than enough.

 

[Julian Cox]

I'm very curious what Tesla is doing to prevent Chinese scalpers from placing thousands of reservations.'

Two per person limit plus that person actually paying for and taking delivery of a Model S or a Model X to get anywhere near the front of the production line - either that or applying for and getting a job at Tesla or SpaceX for which Tesla scalping is probably a valid cause for instant dismissal.

Note that come late 2017 there will be a lot more Model S and X customers than currently exist, potentially another 250,000+ in addition to the 100,000+ world wide totaling close to 400,000 units world wide assuming the current fleet doubling every year continues to hold. Each of whom has the option to buy two Model 3s and have them made before serving any possible scalpers.

By the time hundreds of thousands of orders from known-good customers and known employees are worked through if demand pressure remains sufficiently insane to reward scalping this would be a very high quality problem to contend with.

 

[Ukland Wombat]

100k reservations by April 2 is too conservative, IMHO. It's fun to guess, 'cause that's all anyone is doing. But this is gonna be a sensation.

IMO, much more of a sensation if TM imposes a cut-off date for reserving the performance version. I have just started a new thread wherein the OP (which is very short) explains how the incentive to reserve could be massively boosted. (x10?)

Starts off about model X, and speculates about a new EPS device common to X and M3 of 10kwh capacity (like scrapped powerwall) that has two functions: adds to standard pack to make it Performance-sized and also at the same time serving as an EPS, giving the capacity to use home electrical appliances wherever your vehicle is...tradesmen running power tools for example.

I invite criticism if you can spare a few moments to go there. I don't want to clog this thread.

 

[Ulmo]

So, let's assume we get 65,000 reservations. The stock price ignores this. TSLA tracks stock trader sentiment. Do we expect a dip tomorrow, many dips after reveal, stubborn response before Q1 call, analysts ease up on negativity after shipment numbers, numbers don't astound, model 3 reservations and model S/X order page updates, and around end of April we'll get a few more bumps from exceptionally good Model 3 interest.

If the stock gets excited, what would it be based on? Higher than expected market interest for Model 3 meaning more eventual sales? Shipping model X/S product? Financial status?

 

[SteveG3]

I don't think it will be at that level. Reservation only takes a few minutes. Let's say 5 min. 10 hours of store hours for just one sales can serve 120 reservations. Having 3 sales would be more than enough.

we shall see. I'm not saying all stores, but I think this will happen at more than a handful of stores. I don't know if this is the norm, but my local store is only open 8 hours on a typical weekday.

 

[geneclean55]

Elon wrote this below, further to his earlier tweet

@rossbin You will see the car very clearly, but some important elements will be added and some will evolve.

 

[farzyness]

Folks - very helpful thread to keep our eyes on come in the morning. Hoping we see at least 1 TMC member in line in each location to give us a count.

Spreadsheet for line updates (US & Canada)

 

[mmd]

Melbourne:
"Just reserved my Model 3 in exactly 3 minutes! I guess about 100 people reserved in the first hour in Melbourne but no one is waiting anymore"
Sad it was only 100.
Hope to meet with 99 at least in Vienna in 8hours!

From Model 3 tent thread.

Show Us Your Tents!!

 

[Electrifying]

I am cautious but not ready to declare the uptrend has ended. Still holding core shares and about 30 call spreads. I am looking for a couple huge volume up days to mark capitulation of the shorts before I will consider lightening up. During the downtrend to $150, it took several 7M+ shares up days to arrest the downtrend.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

Started a new thread:
Features you believe the Model 3 will have to make it compelling?

Begins with:

I that believe the Model 3 will be more compelling than most member of this forum. I think that the information that I based my opinions on could be really useful in trading and investment decisions having to do with tomorrows reveal, so I rushed to put this together.

I recently posted a list of features that believe the Model 3 will have to make it compelling. Pretty much everyone said that everything on that list was unnecessary and too expensive.

Elon has said repeatedly that he aspires to make compelling cars, even saying "We're trying to decide whether we should show all the cards". And JB said "It [the model 3] will wow everyone with features".

We have analysts stating that:
“We do not believe this production process is one competitors can easily recreate”. Plus the cost savings due to "an 80% vertically integrated operation". EM said that when they bring production in-house it always saves them money.

And (my estimate) "worst case compared to the Chevy Bolt it will cost Tesla $1,800 less for the same pack size".

My question is which features do you believe that the Model 3 will have to make it compelling, and which features (cards) will they keep close to the vest?

I believe that the most likely features are:
A big (MX) windshield. My estimated cost about $300.
They had some supply issues for a short time, and possibly some seal issues, but I think that they could easily resolve those and EM said that he personally prefers the MS, and he said that one feature of the MX that he really likes is the big windshield.

Include AP. Sensors, cameras and wiring etc. at 100k cars per year probably cost under $400, the remaining cost is software, which they are developing anyway, and it will work better with a larger fleet.

Include Local Supercharging. This might cost them $300-$500 per car, which they can allocate to a faster build out, and this prevents self selection.

Make the basic pack size at least 70kWh, which would give a real world range of close to 300 miles. Compared to the 55kWh size some of you think is likely this would cost them a maximum of $2k per car. They might decide to keep this close to the vest to minimize the impact on MS and MX sales, until they increase those pack sizes.

Total added cost about $3k. Documentation below:

 

[Ulmo]

My post analyzing reservations has been turned back into a draft due to TMC downtime and rollback to prior database states. I am going to take this opportunity to repeat these items, instead of repeating all the analysis:

* Hundreds of people so far seem to be waiting overnight to reserve even though there's no technical queue positioning reason to do so (since they could get the same queue position by just showing up the next day during store hours and not waiting overnight). This shows a level of interest far beyond some tired old dirty energy vehicles. (There is, of course, a social component.) This ties into the brand interest. It's up to Tesla to deliver on that brand interest, and it seems Tesla's stated interest in delivering on that customer interest is by following its own stated goals, to deliver clean energy vehicles that people want to drive.

* Some of the reservation numbers from Hong Kong were posted, and some other reservation number analysis was offered in other posts from early reservation countries (Au?), which both agreed with the following conclusion: I saw with my own eyes that the HK reservation #s did not follow a discernible sequencing pattern, and the other posters from Australia(?) analyzed the reservation numbers they and their friends got and they were also patternless and nonsequential.

Therefore, any analysis on number of reservations will have to come via other types of data collection. Here's hoping it is a good number. We already see good interest. But reservations today isn't a necessary metric for a car that delivers in more than a year from now.

My conclusion is that the Model 3 story is still being written and signs are looking great. This is long term product. A growing entity has to invest a lot in its growth. We are looking to execution now, among other things. I'm looking forward to this execution. So far, no snags in reservations, so that's a decent sign.

Yes, there is competition. Someday the competition will be fully competent. It is a race. So far, Tesla's competition has had a lot of early wimpy ugly starts, whereas Tesla is going for good products. So far, Tesla has delivered 3 well liked good looking successive models (and continues to take orders for, make, and deliver the last 2 of those models) in preparation for the position of bringing this new Model 3 to market. That's not the same wimpy ugly starts that the competition has done. I think Tesla is in a fine position to be one of the successful entities in this market segment, and be an obvious standard bearer by which all of its competition will be measured for the next generation.

 

[CyberDutchie]

What caused the TMC freeze for several hours?

Pure speculation: some leaked images showed up?

 

[mmd]

What caused the TMC freeze for several hours?

Pure speculation: some leaked images showed up?

Guess this site couldn't handle the traffic of Model 3 excitement and all the pictures being shared leaked images could've been removed promptly without shutting the site down for hours. And this site is owned by Tesla Motors Club LLC, which is not affiliated to Tesla.

 

[trils0n]

Or a drop down with different forum styles could have appeared at the bottom of the site for a few mins and then disappeared again. (This is what happened in case anyone is confused -- but probably not best to be tweaking the site like that during Model 3 reveal...)

 

[Car4CivilizedAge]

Folks - very helpful thread to keep our eyes on come in the morning. Hoping we see at least 1 TMC member in line in each location to give us a count.

Spreadsheet for line updates (US & Canada)

I'm headed to one of the Oslo stores right now with my father. Don't know if there will be lines. Will report. We are ordering 2 Model 3's. Loads of people will order, but most will order at reveal/few days after.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I figured "mulder"1231 would think it's a conspiracy (X files music in the background...). Sorry, I know, off topic, doesn't belong in short-term thread... couldn't resist...

 

[Fallenone]

Looks like my post with some pix of lines at stores in China got lost during the down of TMC. Here you go again.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Thanks @Fallenone! This is why Tesla needs to build a Model 3 factory in China! Pretty good queues there.