Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dennis]

Does anyone know what methodology InsideEVs uses to estimate US Tesla deliveries? Here is what they said in the November report:

We simply report from the data we accumulate ourselves, the first hand accounts available from the factory and from the community itself when available

Is their main source of data the delivery reports that folks make here are TMC? If so wouldn't they be missing the larger number of delivery-miles-only cars that have been sold this quarter?

 

[JRP3]

Even if he has said it I'm sure BYD grew faster than Tesla has. A lot of Chinese companies grew absurdly fast.

They may be cheap compared to roofing but probably not compared to siding. (I'm not convinced Elon is comparing the price to conventional asphalt, or even steel panel roofing). I suppose if your intent is to maximize winter solar production and you are far enough north then it might make sense, but choosing to use them as siding instead of roofing will probably not maximize your yearly solar production in most areas.

 

[Green Pete]

They may be cheap compared to roofing but probably not compared to siding. (I'm not convinced Elon is comparing the price to conventional asphalt, or even steel panel roofing). I suppose if your intent is to maximize winter solar production and you are far enough north then it might make sense, but choosing to use them as siding instead of roofing will probably not maximize your yearly solar production in most areas.

Siding is more expensive than roofing. Even the cheap stuff. And hardie board is more expensive than typical siding because it lasts longer and basically looks like terra-cotta on the side of your house.

 

[GBleck]

They may be cheap compared to roofing but probably not compared to siding. (I'm not convinced Elon is comparing the price to conventional asphalt, or even steel panel roofing). I suppose if your intent is to maximize winter solar production and you are far enough north then it might make sense, but choosing to use them as siding instead of roofing will probably not maximize your yearly solar production in most areas.

Depends how you are talking about cost. Three tab fiberglass asphalt has a 12-20 year lifespan average 15 years? If a solar roof lasts 45 years it could cost 3 times as much and be price competitive ish.

 

[MitchJi]

"The city is paying General Motors $32,997 per vehicle, but will get a federal rebate of $8,287 per car, making its actual cost $24,710, according to an Administrative Services spokeswoman. That's comparable to the $23,067 it pays for a Prius through a contract with Toyota. The city says the Bolt will cost less to operate and maintain than a Prius does."

So the M3 is a Prius killer (the Bolt won't have the volume).

 

[30seconds]

Maybe

Sugar bowl!

 

[JRP3]

Siding is more expensive than roofing. Even the cheap stuff.

A quick google showed vinyl siding about the same cost range as asphalt roofing and cheaper than steel roofing, with hardie board about the same cost as steel roofing. Tile and slate roofing is of course even more expensive.

 

[JRP3]

Depends how you are talking about cost. Three tab fiberglass asphalt has a 12-20 year lifespan average 15 years? If a solar roof lasts 45 years it could cost 3 times as much and be price competitive ish.

True.

 

[3Victoria]

I suppose if your intent is to maximize winter solar production and you are far enough north then it might make sense, but choosing to use them as siding instead of roofing will probably not maximize your yearly solar production in most areas.

Well, if the price is right, you don't need to maximize your yearly production, just have enough for the worst periods.

 

[Krugerrand]

That doesn't make sense.

Well, of course not. Because angels don't do siding, though I think they've been know to hang a window or two.

 

[MitchJi]

Consumer Reports just handed down a not-very-good review of the Tesla Model X, calling the all-electric SUV that launched last year "more showy than practical."

On balance, Consumer Reports appreciated the Model X for its speed and handling, but found things to dislike about some of the vehicle's more complicated aspects.

Tesla responded to the review by saying the company has spent almost a year dealing with early Model X production issues — and noting that Model X owners are overwhelmingly delighted by their vehicles. For the record, Business Insider's Ben Zhang and I were quite impressed by the Model X when we experienced it (briefly) in March.

The Consumer Reports review set off a flurry of fretting about Tesla — nothing out of the ordinary, as every time negative news about the company's cars hits, concerns arise about whether Tesla can really grow as big and as rapidly as CEO Elon Musk wants it to, achieving 500,000 in annual deliveries by 2018.

The key question is always the same: Is demand for Teslas really out there?

Demand is actually mind-blowing
This is an easy question to answer. There's probably more demand for Tesla vehicles than would be satisfied even if Musk's goal of half a million cars was met.

The bottom line is that Tesla will never have trouble selling its cars, at least not until it cranks up production to the same levels of other major global automakers. For the time being, Tesla's biggest challenge remains managing the demand it can almost effortlessly create.

Musk has addressed this challenge often. When the Model 3 mass-market vehicle — scheduled to arrive in late 2017, priced at around $30,000 after tax credits — was unveiled earlier this year, Tesla swiftly racked up almost 400k advance reservations at $1,000 a pop.

Musk later reminded analysts that all the company did was post a few tweets and live-stream the unveiling event in Los Angeles.


Let's be perfectly clear: This is one of the largest and most important happenings in the history of the automobile industry. In over a century, no carmaker has even come close to witnessing so much demand for an unavailable vehicle. A General Motors or Toyota would kill to have such a stunning amount of enthusiasm, backed up by cash money, for a new car or truck. But it can't kill, so it spends billions on marketing and advertising.

Tesla, for all practical purposes, spends zero on marketing and advertising — although Musk, in a spirit of charity, says that someday it will, because the media requires advertising spending to stay alive. The company sends emails, holds customer events, has a small but intrepid communications team, and lets Musk do his thing on Twitter. That's it.

Tesla versus the rest
And that's been it for pretty much Tesla's entire history. The carmaker has gone from delivering no vehicles to delivering close to 100,000 in 2016 without committing a red cent to stoking demand. During that same period, Ford and General Motors spent something like a combined $6 billion on advertising — in the US alone.

<Snip>
That's about the cost of one GF! Probably more than Tesla spent on superchargers!

Against the backdrop of this sort of business-as-usual yearly cash burn to generate profitable demand, raising concerns about whether Tesla is about to see an exodus of interest in its vehicles simply because Consumer Reports has some complaints about the Model X is kind of insane.

I'm not even sure it would be sensible to calculate the return Tesla might theoretically get on every $1 in incremental ad spending. Such an effort might cause a rupture in reality because it would be astonishingly higher — considering Tesla's scale of production — than any carmaker's, ever, in human history.

Reality check
None of this means Tesla's stratospheric market cap of about $30 billion is justified, nor should it reassure any Tesla investors, analysts, or observers that the company will be able to deftly surmount the many, many hurdles it faces in the future as it transitions from being a niche Silicon Valley luxury electric-car maker to a truly major force in the global auto industry.

We should also look skeptically at the overall electric-car market, which represents 1% of vehicle sales worldwide. Assuming that Tesla demand is the same as electric-car demand is a gigantic mistake that many otherwise sensible major automakers are making. (Not that Musk is discouraged — far from worrying about all the so-called Tesla killers aiming to take him out, he's delighted that more automakers are taking up the "electric" banner.)

 

[Krugerrand]

Consumer Reports just handed down a not-very-good review of the Tesla Model X, calling the all-electric SUV that launched last year "more showy than practical."

On balance, Consumer Reports appreciated the Model X for its speed and handling, but found things to dislike about some of the vehicle's more complicated aspects.

Tesla responded to the review by saying the company has spent almost a year dealing with early Model X production issues — and noting that Model X owners are overwhelmingly delighted by their vehicles. For the record, Business Insider's Ben Zhang and I were quite impressed by the Model X when we experienced it (briefly) in March.

The Consumer Reports review set off a flurry of fretting about Tesla — nothing out of the ordinary, as every time negative news about the company's cars hits, concerns arise about whether Tesla can really grow as big and as rapidly as CEO Elon Musk wants it to, achieving 500,000 in annual deliveries by 2018.

The key question is always the same: Is demand for Teslas really out there?

Demand is actually mind-blowing
This is an easy question to answer. There's probably more demand for Tesla vehicles than would be satisfied even if Musk's goal of half a million cars was met.

The bottom line is that Tesla will never have trouble selling its cars, at least not until it cranks up production to the same levels of other major global automakers. For the time being, Tesla's biggest challenge remains managing the demand it can almost effortlessly create.

Musk has addressed this challenge often. When the Model 3 mass-market vehicle — scheduled to arrive in late 2017, priced at around $30,000 after tax credits — was unveiled earlier this year, Tesla swiftly racked up almost 400k advance reservations at $1,000 a pop.

Musk later reminded analysts that all the company did was post a few tweets and live-stream the unveiling event in Los Angeles.


Let's be perfectly clear: This is one of the largest and most important happenings in the history of the automobile industry. In over a century, no carmaker has even come close to witnessing so much demand for an unavailable vehicle. A General Motors or Toyota would kill to have such a stunning amount of enthusiasm, backed up by cash money, for a new car or truck. But it can't kill, so it spends billions on marketing and advertising.

Tesla, for all practical purposes, spends zero on marketing and advertising — although Musk, in a spirit of charity, says that someday it will, because the media requires advertising spending to stay alive. The company sends emails, holds customer events, has a small but intrepid communications team, and lets Musk do his thing on Twitter. That's it.

Tesla versus the rest
And that's been it for pretty much Tesla's entire history. The carmaker has gone from delivering no vehicles to delivering close to 100,000 in 2016 without committing a red cent to stoking demand. During that same period, Ford and General Motors spent something like a combined $6 billion on advertising — in the US alone.

<Snip>
That's about the cost of one GF! Probably more than Tesla spent on superchargers!

Against the backdrop of this sort of business-as-usual yearly cash burn to generate profitable demand, raising concerns about whether Tesla is about to see an exodus of interest in its vehicles simply because Consumer Reports has some complaints about the Model X is kind of insane.

I'm not even sure it would be sensible to calculate the return Tesla might theoretically get on every $1 in incremental ad spending. Such an effort might cause a rupture in reality because it would be astonishingly higher — considering Tesla's scale of production — than any carmaker's, ever, in human history.

Reality check
None of this means Tesla's stratospheric market cap of about $30 billion is justified, nor should it reassure any Tesla investors, analysts, or observers that the company will be able to deftly surmount the many, many hurdles it faces in the future as it transitions from being a niche Silicon Valley luxury electric-car maker to a truly major force in the global auto industry.

We should also look skeptically at the overall electric-car market, which represents 1% of vehicle sales worldwide. Assuming that Tesla demand is the same as electric-car demand is a gigantic mistake that many otherwise sensible major automakers are making. (Not that Musk is discouraged — far from worrying about all the so-called Tesla killers aiming to take him out, he's delighted that more automakers are taking up the "electric" banner.)

The 'reality check' comes across as "I had to say something to 'balance' the article so people wouldn't call me a Fanboy."

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I wish more people from this forum would post the FACTS under the hashtag $TSLA on twitter. The whole hashtag, which is used by people in the finance industry, is dominated by people saying Tesla is going to zero. They need to be educated. It is the most widely read hashtag by traders and what is being said there certainly influences sentiment and the direction of the stock. Look forward to seeing some members posting later today. I guarantee these maggots will flee when they see sentiment starting to lean in a different direction.

.........and by the way.....they were ridiculing this forum the other day.

 

[Lessmog]

I wish more people from this forum would post the FACTS under the hashtag $TSLA on twitter. The whole hashtag, which is used by people in the finance industry, is dominated by people saying Tesla is going to zero. They need to be educated. It is the most widely read hashtag by traders and what is being said there certainly influences sentiment and the direction of the stock. Look forward to seeing some members posting later today. I guarantee these maggots will flee when they see sentiment starting to lean in a different direction.

While I agree in principle, not even this highly worthy cause can make me do twitter, so let me just wish all others good hunting and go on parasiting!

 

[Green Pete]

A quick google showed vinyl siding about the same cost range as asphalt roofing and cheaper than steel roofing, with hardie board about the same cost as steel roofing. Tile and slate roofing is of course even more expensive.

I find that to be a little odd considering I sell siding and roofing and our siding is 30% more than the roofing (per 100 square feet) and on par with all the other competition in the area.

Now if your house has more roof footage than siding footage then yes siding your house might cost the same as your roof.

 

[JRP3]

The cost I looked at was per sq ft and included installation, so maybe that's the difference? Or my quick google search was misleading.

 

[TNEVol]

The Michigan Tesla - Nordstrom article reminded me that VW has new cars placed all over the airport in Chattanooga certainly due to the factory there. I wonder if F and GM have similar arrangements in Michigan. I hope they have Dealer Licenses for those.

 

[larmor]

The Michigan Tesla - Nordstrom article reminded me that VW has new cars placed all over the airport in Chattanooga certainly due to the factory there. I wonder if F and GM have similar arrangements in Michigan. I hope they have Dealer Licenses for those.

Cadillac has a display as part of Macy's in fashionl island and BMW has gallery in Southh coast plaza in a stand alone store. So really it's just market forces and a Michigan problem...

 

[winfield100]

intriguing graph, is it for real? will EV's save us or mitigate it?

 

[jgillispie]

Cadillac has a display as part of Macy's in fashionl island and BMW has gallery in Southh coast plaza in a stand alone store. So really it's just market forces and a Michigan problem...

Jeep has cars at the entrance of the Costco location I go to in Iowa.