Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MitchJi]

That's about the cost of one GF! Probably more than Tesla spent on superchargers!

The 'reality check' comes across as "I had to say something to 'balance' the article so people wouldn't call me a Fanboy."

If you really want to "balance" that article you need to either explain why demand is a problem for Tesla or post a link to an article that claims that it's a problem for Tesla .

Or you could claim that GM is smarter or that it's better for their customers to spend $3,billion on advertising than it is for Tesla to invest in the GF or their supercharger network .

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

"The city is paying General Motors $32,997 per vehicle, but will get a federal rebate of $8,287 per car, making its actual cost $24,710, according to an Administrative Services spokeswoman. That's comparable to the $23,067 it pays for a Prius through a contract with Toyota. The city says the Bolt will cost less to operate and maintain than a Prius does."

Maybe hire a new tax consultant? "26 USC 115 specifically excludes from taxable income all income of states or municipalities, as well as income of public utilities. This operates as an exemption from tax for state and municipal governments." {the reference to public utilities is imprecise--I think it refers to utilities operated as subdivisions of exempt entities, like Austin Power or City Public Service in San Antonio, LA Water & Power, etc.}

Considering they're citing a rebate of $8287, I think it must be specific to government entities. Sucks for us consumers.

 

[EinSV]

US Model S deliveries for new orders were just pushed back to March. Demand and orders are clearly extremely strong.

The Model S and Model X delivery threads also are showing a ton of activity -- I think there will be a very strong finish to 2016 on deliveries. Although some caution is warranted on final Q16 numbers still looks to me like a meet or beat on delivery guidance is more likely than not.

And financials should be very good, given everything that has been done this quarter to boost average prices and margins.

 

[Lessmog]

Considering they're citing a rebate of $8287, I think it must be specific to government entities. Sucks for us consumers.

And for US tax payers who bailed GM once before?

 

[W84M3]

US Model S deliveries for new orders were just pushed back to March. Demand and orders are clearly extremely strong.

The Model S and Model X delivery threads also are showing a ton of activity -- I think there will be a very strong finish to 2016 on deliveries. Although some caution is warranted on final Q16 numbers still looks to me like a meet or beat on delivery guidance is more likely than not.

And financials should be very good, given everything that has been done this quarter to boost average prices and margins.

After the doom and gloom here with the insideevs figures, I think we can safely say there has been extreme regional batching. just look at the entries in the spreadsheets for S and X now which are filled for 95% with US orders.

Since the start of the week, the factory went absolutely ballistic, spewing new cars out (some even with a production time of 1 or less than 1 day).
It looks like they seem to target VINS of 177xxx for S and 30xxx for X to produce this year. With the spillover of 5000 cars in transit from Q3 stable/slight decline I'm seeing 16.000 S and 10.000 (bigger number in transit) as attainable.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

intriguing graph, is it for real? will EV's save us or mitigate it?

You are looking at variables that both correlate with another variable so it shows that the two correlate, but effect does not make cause. The actual correlation is to industrial development and energy usage. The reason they correlate is that because of better industrial tools a bigger population could be sustained. That allowed for an exponential population growth starting from early 20th century. The industrial revolution however came at a cost of using high carbon fuels causing a correlated CO2 explosion in the emissions. So both come from the same underlying principle.

If you now keep going on the energy growth and utilization, but move from a high carbon source to a non-carbon or even carbon negative source, then the correlation breaks fast on this plot.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Ahhhhhh. All the buzz over at $TSLA on twitter is that Apple is back in the game (according to a recent letter Apple sent out to regulators) and we will go to zero even faster now! Let's party!

 

[winfield100]

You are looking at variables that both correlate with another variable so it shows that the two correlate, but effect does not make cause. The actual correlation is to industrial development and energy usage. The reason they correlate is that because of better industrial tools a bigger population could be sustained. That allowed for an exponential population growth starting from early 20th century. The industrial revolution however came at a cost of using high carbon fuels causing a correlated CO2 explosion in the emissions. So both come from the same underlying principle.

If you now keep going on the energy growth and utilization, but move from a high carbon source to a non-carbon or even carbon negative source, then the correlation breaks fast on this plot.

thank you especially for "effect does not make cause" and "move from a high carbon source to a non-carbon or even carbon negative source, then the correlation breaks fast on this plot"
there was something about the graph that gave me a queasy feeling about its validity

 

[MitchJi]

I have the 200 strike price, bought when TSLA was at ~255, so delta at the time was 0.78.

I'll talk about some of your choices for rolling them to J19's.
If you roll them before they are green, obviously you are going to lose something. Lesson is when buying call options buying when the SP is low is critical.

If you roll them while they are OTM for the same strike price the delta will be higher in the J19's. A losing proposition because the further the price increases the less corresponding J19's you will be able to buy. Once they are ITM as the price increases you will start to be able to J19's the more the price of the J18's increases. I'd be inclined to wait at least until January numbers and the GF event, hopefully producing cells and some positive news on TE. February ER-CC should be good as well, but I'm leery of the trump effect.

I think that Q1-Q2 should also be excellent, if there are no real or preceived hiccups in the M3 ramp.

If you decide to roll them before they turn green you might could consider getting a higher strike price. That's normally considered riskier strategy, but you might believe that the risk for something like J19 $240-250's is less than for your J18 $200's. That could potentially undo some or all of the loss eventually.

Another choice that I tried myself, that currently looks like a big mistake, very risky, would be to roll them to something with a shorter expiration, probably with a lower strike price, June17's for example. I rolled my J18 $280's to March 2017 230's I ended up with about ten percent more options and a bigger delta. I did that just before the Q3 numbers because I was confident that the numbers and the ER-CC would be excellent. That was correct but the SP didn't move as I expected. Still if the SP gets to about $230 I'm green on the entire purchase, but I'd need about $250-260 for the J18's to be green.

 

[NicoV]

US Model S deliveries for new orders were just pushed back to March. Demand and orders are clearly extremely strong.

The Model S and Model X delivery threads also are showing a ton of activity -- I think there will be a very strong finish to 2016 on deliveries. Although some caution is warranted on final Q16 numbers still looks to me like a meet or beat on delivery guidance is more likely than not.

And financials should be very good, given everything that has been done this quarter to boost average prices and margins.

You can still get a Model S in februari if you're willing to take delivery in Europe.
Ending free supercharging seems to be the mother of all demand triggers.

 

[TMSE]

You can still get a Model S in februari if you're willing to take delivery in Europe.
Ending free supercharging seems to be the mother of all demand triggers.

What will be the demand trigger after Q1'17? New AR spaceship like interior? It just coincides with the M3 reveal part 2.

 

[RobStark]

so it's actually a map of where Teslas can charge, a much smaller subset of which the Bolt can charge at

 

[MitchJi]

You can still get a Model S in februari if you're willing to take delivery in Europe.
Ending free supercharging seems to be the mother of all demand triggers.

That seems crazy to me. The additional electricity costs are mouse nuts when buying a $70k+ car.

Are you sure that the demand isn't the availability of the AP 2 hardware?

 

[3Victoria]

Surely the Match delivery dates for US teflects a consistent batching policy, with Jan and some of February going overseas.

 

[NicoV]

That seems crazy to me. The additional electricity costs are mouse nuts when buying a $70k+ car.

Are you sure that the demand isn't the availability of the AP 2 hardware?

Both probably.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Both probably.

Both makes sense. This point in time is the only point where the buyer gets fully autonomous hardware (future proofing) and unlimited supercharging. What other compelling feature in the future would be worth the tradeoff? Can't think of one. Based on this demand lever, guidance for q1 '17 deliveries should exceed q4. Looking forward to the q4 earnings!

 

[T3slaTulips]

What will be the demand trigger after Q1'17? New AR spaceship like interior? It just coincides with the M3 reveal part 2.

Possibly. Also when are we expecting 21-70 cells in S/X? And S/X 100D (non P).

 

[NicoV]

Both makes sense. This point in time is the only point where the buyer gets fully autonomous hardware (future proofing) and unlimited supercharging. What other compelling feature in the future would be worth the tradeoff? Can't think of one. Based on this demand lever, guidance for q1 '17 deliveries should exceed q4. Looking forward to the q4 earnings!

Not to mention that there's even a Model X in 5 seat configuration available.

 

[madodel]

Not to mention that there's even a Model X in 5 seat configuration available.

With folding second row seats.

 

[Papafox]

As far as future mega-catalysts to buy S or X, consider what will happens after Tesla has sold 200,000 units in the U.S. and the federal tax credit is about to start its phase-out. Buyers on the fence will see a $7500 after-tax penalty (if they have suitable income) if they wait until after the phase-out to buy their S or X. Here's the wording from the IRS site:

Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

That final quarter for full the full tax credit given to S, X and M3 buyers may likely turn into a quarter when ALL Teslas are delivered to U.S. customers. With deliveries all in the U.S., you would expect a nice jump up in volume of deliveries that quarter. I would not be surprised if Tesla tweaks the deliveries so that the 200,000th U.S. vehicle is delivered in the first week of a quarter, thus allowing the remainder of that quarter plus the next quarter to be at the full credit value for U.S. customers.

Note: reading the IRS language, it looks like if the 200,000th U.S. Tesla delivery took place in the 3rd Q of 2017, Q3 and Q4 of 2017 would be at 100% fed credit and then 50% credit begins in Q1 of 2018. Please speak up if you interpret differently.