Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mmd]

A flurry of new EVs and PHEVs. Does anyone think Chrysler Pacifica will steal some Model X sales next month?
Seems like a good minivan. 30 miles AER under $42000, and seats 7 comfortably.

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Priced From $41,995, First Drive Of 30 Mile Plug-In Van

 

[larmor]

A flurry of new EVs and PHEVs. Does anyone think Chrysler Pacifica will steal some Model X sales next month?
Seems like a good minivan. 30 miles AER under $42000, and seats 7 comfortably.

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Priced From $41,995, First Drive Of 30 Mile Plug-In Van

I can't believe i got a MX, when i could have gotten a minivan...

 

[Green Pete]

I can't believe i got a MX, when i could have gotten a minivan...

AND ITS A HYBRID! Such a poor descision you made. Lol.

I can't believe hybrids are still a thing. It was a good move 16 years ago to bridge the gap and develop battery's and electric motors. Ironically that never happened and the one company making good EVs never made a hybrid.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Thanks. This puts to rest the speculation that it's only the short sellers causing the move down. Again, @DaveT and a few others were right in reading the situation. Kudos!!

I still can't believe how hard some people came against me arguing that it wasn't possible that large investors reduced their holdings in Q3. If I have time, I'll post the conversation here.

Wow! I do not even know where to start, as bolded parts above just do not describe what actually was discussed. Note word discussed. Nobody came against anybody. There was exchange of differing opinions. We should all take a deep breath and stop taking things so personally.

Lets look at what actually happened.

The exchange started with Dave dismissing role played by short selling and implying that there is data indicating that funds/institutions trimmed their positions and that what defined the SP action.

I wish we'd end the conspiracy theories that analysts are mad at Tesla for some reason. (Also the conspiracy theory that "shorts" are the reason the stock flopped today). ...

What we've seen the past few months is large funds/institutions trim their holdings some and not many new large buyers coming in to buy. ...

I was unaware of any data indicating that funds/institutions were selling after announcement of SCTY acquisition and pointed out that largest institutions actually were net buyers in Q2, the latest period for which data were available.

Here is my actual words: "Your theory re. Solar City and risk tolerance is very plausible in general terms, but is not based on any data, and in fact, is inconsistent with the data at our disposal."

I do not believe that above could be characterized as "speculation that it's only the short sellers causing the move down." or that I "was arguing that it wasn't possible that large investors reduced their holdings in Q3"

Here is actual data.

• Acquisition announcement was made in Q2, on June 21st.
  
  
• There was significant increase (7 million shares) in institutional SO in Q2
• Big Five were responsible for all of the increase, as other smaller stake holders actually reduced their positions (by the net 2.4 million shares)
• Total shares owned by Big Five increased 21.45%
• Big Five held majority of the institutional shares (53.64%)
  
  
• There was significant decrease (6.2 million shares) in institutional SO in Q3.
• Big Five were responsible for the minor part of the decrease, 2.6 million shares out of 6.2 million shares of total
• Total shares owned by Big Five decreased by 5.22%
  
• Big Five still hold majority of the institutional shares (54.37%)

 

[esk8mw]

Stock options have been manipulated before. Look at MX related grants Elon received at the end of q3 last year even though it barely met the discription on paper. No good faith. Management can show zev and other credits as part of automotive margins like they have been doing. Hard to see M3 getting 25% where MS is not able to get 30% margin.

Several ridiculous statements here but I'll just focus on the options since that's my expertise.

First, there was no manipulation here. The condition was "build a Model X production model." He did exactly that and the options became vested. If you have an issue with the condition take it up with the Compensation Committee who crafted/approved the award agreement (comprised entirely of independent Board members, before you try and attack that as well).

Second, the timing is not controversial at all. Tesla had until August 2022 to finish the Model X and have the options vest. Do you think this timeline was ever in jeopardy? You would have a point if the options were set to expire and he pushed through some half-cocked production car and exercised/sold his options immediately. As it is, you have it backwards - he was under pressure to deliver Model X to stop the delays, so he released it prematurely to get the press/investors off his back and show progress. A consequence of this was a legal requirement to vest his options per the award agreement. If you are expecting him to refuse options that he earned and is legally entitled to I don't know what to tell you.

Third, do you understand that Elon accrued absolutely no benefit in any form from having the options vest a few months earlier? His financial and tax position stayed exactly the same. Options have 0 value until exercised. The shares have no basis until exercised. The SP on the day of vesting has nothing to do with anything. The exercise price is preset at the grant date price: 31 bucks. It doesn't adjust with the vesting date. But taxes! you say. Nope, options are not taxed at vesting, just at exercise and at the time the shares are sold. He hasn't exercised these options or sold the underlying shares, so nothing gained there, either. As with most smart execs, he will wait until 2021/2022 to exercise so he can continue to defer taxation and hope the SP appreciates to its fullest potential by then.

It never ceases to amaze me how people will write so authoritatively on topics they clearly do not fully understand. You are throwing around words like manipulation and bad faith without even knowing how stock options work. When I write about topics I'm not an expert in (like accounting) I hedge my language, disclose I'm not a pro at the topic and invite people with knowledge to correct me. It's a good practice.

Man, 2 rants in one day. Sorry everyone. Disinformation on executive compensation really sets me off, I guess.

 

[Papafox]

A flurry of new EVs and PHEVs. Does anyone think Chrysler Pacifica will steal some Model X sales next month?
Seems like a good minivan. 30 miles AER under $42000, and seats 7 comfortably.

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Priced From $41,995, First Drive Of 30 Mile Plug-In Van

Those of us who have driven Teslas for years now cannot look at a hybrid as a serious alternative to our vehicles. It's not even close. The low CG, the handling, the breathtaking but quiet acceleration, the robust and continually expanding supercharger network all make the Tesla experience amazing. Add autopilot and over-the-air software updates and it just becomes more amazing. Add solar panels atop your house and you'll drive on sunshine for the next 30+ years. A minivan with pistons and rings, cylinders, water pump, spark plugs, transmission fluid, a radiator, tailpipes, fanbelts, and a hundred other things that can go wrong is no longer something most of us ever want to deal with again, thank you. There's a really good reason why the Tesla Model S is the most loved vehicle on the planet. Until you get some serious time behind the wheel of a Tesla, MMD, you just won't understand. I'm not trying to be highbrow here. The pure EV experience is something that changes most drivers forever and few journey back to the land of chitty-chitty-bang-bang. Leaf owners are the people who buy lots of the used Teslas here in Hawaii. They too don't ever want to go back to their formerly fuelish ways and they're looking for a vehicle without the limitations of the Leaf. Hoping you get to try a Tesla and understand. Better yet, why don't you put your name on the reservation list for a Model 3? You won't regret it.

 

[MartinAustin]

Bloomberg's Corey Johnson announced that Jim Chanos is going to come on the show tomorrow (Wednesday) to discuss among other things, the Tesla acquisition of Solar City. One day before the stockholder vote.

Gee, with those two guys, I wonder how the conversation will go...

 

[tander]

Those of us who have driven Teslas for years now cannot look at a hybrid as a serious alternative to our vehicles. It's not even close. The low CG, the handling, the breathtaking but quiet acceleration, the robust and continually expanding supercharger network all make the Tesla experience amazing. Add autopilot and over-the-air software updates and it just becomes more amazing. A minivan with pistons and rings, cylinders, water pumps, spark plugs, transmission fluid, a radiator, tailpipes, fanbelts, and a hundred other things that can go wrong is no longer something most of us ever want to deal with again, thank you. There's a really good reason why the Tesla Model S is the most loved vehicle on the planet. Until you get some serious time behind the wheel of a Tesla, MMD, you just won't understand. I'm not trying to be highbrow here. The pure EV experience is something that changes most drivers forever and few journey back to the land of chitty-chitty-bang-bang. Leaf owners are the people who buy lots of the used Teslas here in Hawaii. They too don't ever want to go back to their formerly fuelish ways and they're looking for a vehicle without the limitations of the Leaf. Hoping you get to try a Tesla and understand. Better yet, why don't you put your name on the reservation list for a Model 3? You won't regret it.

@mmd
This isn't gonna be popular here but I'll play devil's advocate, the minivan and especially the volvo xc90 hybrid are both kind of cool imo. The minivan probably won't take too many buyers from the model x, although the xc90 probably will, although still no need to worry that people are going to stop buying the x or something. I like to get pretty far off the beaten path sometimes, where you'd be a long way from a place to charge let alone a convenient place to charge, and these both would do a great job of giving you electric in the city and still let you head into the middle of nowhere. Great post from Sat? btw Papa, very refreshing amongst all the political rants.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Several ridiculous statements here but I'll just focus on the options since that's my expertise.

First, there was no manipulation here. The condition was "build a Model X production model." He did exactly that and the options became vested. If you have an issue with the condition take it up with the Compensation Committee who crafted/approved the award agreement (comprised entirely of independent Board members, before you try and attack that as well).

Second, the timing is not controversial at all. Tesla had until August 2022 to finish the Model X and have the options vest. Do you think this timeline was ever in jeopardy? You would have a point if the options were set to expire and he pushed through some half-cocked production car and exercised/sold his options immediately. As it is, you have it backwards - he was under pressure to deliver Model X to stop the delays, so he released it prematurely to get the press/investors off his back and show progress. A consequence of this was a legal requirement to vest his options per the award agreement. If you are expecting him to refuse options that he earned and is legally entitled to I don't know what to tell you.

Third, do you understand that Elon accrued absolutely no benefit in any form from having the options vest a few months earlier? His financial and tax position stayed exactly the same. Options have 0 value until exercised. The shares have no basis until exercised. The SP on the day of vesting has nothing to do with anything. The exercise price is preset at the grant date price: 31 bucks. It doesn't adjust with the vesting date. But taxes! you say. Nope, options are not taxed at vesting, just at exercise and at the time the shares are sold. He hasn't exercised these options or sold the underlying shares, so nothing gained there, either. As with most smart execs, he will wait until 2021/2022 to exercise so he can continue to defer taxation and hope the SP appreciates to its fullest potential by then.

It never ceases to amaze me how people will write so authoritatively on topics they clearly do not fully understand. You are throwing around words like manipulation and bad faith without even knowing how stock options work. When I write about topics I'm not an expert in (like accounting) I hedge my language, disclose I'm not a pro at the topic and invite people with knowledge to correct me. It's a good practice.

Man, 2 rants in one day. Sorry everyone. Disinformation on executive compensation really sets me off, I guess.

I find your rants very informative. Keep them coming...

 

[tander]

"It never ceases to amaze me how people will write so authoritatively on topics they clearly do not fully understand. You are throwing around words like manipulation and bad faith without even knowing how stock options work. When I write about topics I'm not an expert in (like accounting) I hedge my language, disclose I'm not a pro at the topic and invite people with knowledge to correct me. It's a good practice.".

Can we just leave this at the top of the forum so everybody has to read it before posting?


Regarding those stock options grants, I recall reading those goals/tranches 3-4? years ago and that was one of the things that made me realize that Tesla wasn't a build and cash-out sort of venture for Musk, as is often the case in the Silcon Valley. This is part of his life's work. Back then they were still just talking about getting S production into the thousands, and yet there were those long-term goals. Wonder if they'll add anything to the list before they have a new CEO.

 

[Cobos]

A flurry of new EVs and PHEVs. Does anyone think Chrysler Pacifica will steal some Model X sales next month?
Seems like a good minivan. 30 miles AER under $42000, and seats 7 comfortably.

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Priced From $41,995, First Drive Of 30 Mile Plug-In Van

I just can't understand how the hybrid gets you a range of 30 miles on it's 16kWh!! battery. That's over half a kWh per mile? How does it manage that, the front wheels are going backwards while the rear wheels are going forward?
I'm glad they are not using up the same battery supply as the Volt uses, oh wait, they both get batteries from LG Chem..

Cobos

 

[mmd]

Those of us who have driven Teslas for years now cannot look at a hybrid as a serious alternative to our vehicles. It's not even close. The low CG, the handling, the breathtaking but quiet acceleration, the robust and continually expanding supercharger network all make the Tesla experience amazing. Add autopilot and over-the-air software updates and it just becomes more amazing. Add solar panels atop your house and you'll drive on sunshine for the next 30+ years. A minivan with pistons and rings, cylinders, water pump, spark plugs, transmission fluid, a radiator, tailpipes, fanbelts, and a hundred other things that can go wrong is no longer something most of us ever want to deal with again, thank you. There's a really good reason why the Tesla Model S is the most loved vehicle on the planet. Until you get some serious time behind the wheel of a Tesla, MMD, you just won't understand. I'm not trying to be highbrow here. The pure EV experience is something that changes most drivers forever and few journey back to the land of chitty-chitty-bang-bang. Leaf owners are the people who buy lots of the used Teslas here in Hawaii. They too don't ever want to go back to their formerly fuelish ways and they're looking for a vehicle without the limitations of the Leaf. Hoping you get to try a Tesla and understand. Better yet, why don't you put your name on the reservation list for a Model 3? You won't regret it.

@Papafox, you make the gas engine sound like a nuclear reactor! 99% of the cars sold today, and 99..5% of cars on the road are still ICE cars and those people are doing fine. The new EV buyers may or may not be previous Tesla drivers. So, they will approach the new EV/PHEV car buying with a more open mind than you and other early adopters who are driving Model S for a while.

But you do have a point about AP, which no other car has today. It is not clear how many are buying Teslas because of AP, and not because it is electric. As I mentioned a month or so ago, this colleague of mine got a custom ordered August build Model S, but wasn't happy with fit & finish (trims, seats, etc..). I snapped a picture of the side while it was charging at our work. One side looks fine, but the door on the other side seems misaligned. Unfortunately, Tesla never could get the car into service to fix the issues. Yesterday I caught up with him, and learnt he used the happiness guarantee to return the car. He lost a total of $5000 (value of his trade in). And out of all cars, he replaced it with a new Honda Civic non-hybrid! He did't care for electric or hybrid, mainly bought the Tesla to use AP for the stop and go commute time driving.

Going back to the Model 3, I expect some fit and finish issues in the first year. I also doubt the $35k M3 will be delivered before mid 2018. For the first year, only highly optioned M3 may be sold. The 5 seat MX75 are still not delivered. By the time the $35k M3 is delivered, federal tax credit of $7500 will be gone or halved for Tesla. If Hillary was elected, there was hope of an extension. Now I see very little chance of that happening. Besides, I will see what choices are there at that time. I like to sit in the car and try out a few cars before buying one.

 

[maoing]

It's sad to see even DaveT got attacked in this site and considering to quit. If you want to invest TSLA, you'd better to do more of your own research and independent thinking instead of relying on many "polluted" information from TSLA perma-bulls or cheerleaders in this site. This was paticularly true in the last two year, people get lost large amount of money if they are blindly enthusiastic to TSLA while shorts from SA are thrive on the opposite. That's the reason I come here less and less frequently but pay more attention for many balanced SA contributors. Oh, it's time to go and I'm sure I'll get many "dislike" from my ignored list

 

[GoTslaGo]

Those of us who have driven Teslas for years now cannot look at a hybrid as a serious alternative to our vehicles. It's not even close. The low CG, the handling, the breathtaking but quiet acceleration, the robust and continually expanding supercharger network all make the Tesla experience amazing. Add autopilot and over-the-air software updates and it just becomes more amazing. Add solar panels atop your house and you'll drive on sunshine for the next 30+ years. A minivan with pistons and rings, cylinders, water pump, spark plugs, transmission fluid, a radiator, tailpipes, fanbelts, and a hundred other things that can go wrong is no longer something most of us ever want to deal with again, thank you. There's a really good reason why the Tesla Model S is the most loved vehicle on the planet. Until you get some serious time behind the wheel of a Tesla, MMD, you just won't understand. I'm not trying to be highbrow here. The pure EV experience is something that changes most drivers forever and few journey back to the land of chitty-chitty-bang-bang. Leaf owners are the people who buy lots of the used Teslas here in Hawaii. They too don't ever want to go back to their formerly fuelish ways and they're looking for a vehicle without the limitations of the Leaf. Hoping you get to try a Tesla and understand. Better yet, why don't you put your name on the reservation list for a Model 3? You won't regret it.

Funny anecdote about that.

My wife had an appointment today and had to get a car service to take her to it. Audi A8. She was sitting in the back and noticed the car was making all these weird noises and jerking about. She was getting nervous throughout the drive, afraid that the car would break down and crash. Instead of panicking, she collected herself and listened for a long while (it was a long drive). Then she realized she was just hearing all the usual car noises and feeling the shifting of the transmission.

She drives the Tesla.

 

[mmd]

I just can't understand how the hybrid gets you a range of 30 miles on it's 16kWh!! battery. That's over half a kWh per mile? How does it manage that, the front wheels are going backwards while the rear wheels are going forward?
I'm glad they are not using up the same battery supply as the Volt uses, oh wait, they both get batteries from LG Chem..

Cobos

If you saw the video, you would have heard the guy explain at the 3 minute mark that it is the size of two Volts stuck together The new Volt is 18.4 kwh. Pacifica is 16 kwh. So the per kwh range is really 2.88 miles vs. 1.875 miles. A ratio of 1.536.

 

[erthquake]

Anyone else get the feeling that after merger is approved we'll see a series of huge deals become public? SCTY got its name doing residential solar but I get the feeling the Tesla Energy business on the utility side is potentially orders of magnitudes bigger and will all be purchased from tesla rather than PPA.

Not sure about deal announcements being held back until after the merger, but I hope it comes to pass. Agree with you on the huge upside for commercial installations though.

 

[RobStark]

A flurry of new EVs and PHEVs. Does anyone think Chrysler Pacifica will steal some Model X sales next month?
Seems like a good minivan. 30 miles AER under $42000, and seats 7 comfortably.

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Priced From $41,995, First Drive Of 30 Mile Plug-In Van

Most people simply can not swing $90k for a Model X 75.

But need seating for 6-7 people and/or cargo capacity of a minivan. Many can afford $42k.

Fiat Chrysler and Honda buy the bulk of Tesla ZEV credits.

I think the Pacifica Hybrid will sell like hot cakes.

And reduce the need for Chrysler to buy more Tesla ZEVs.

BTW Yes, I think with all of LG Chem's clients their battery cell/pack factories should be humming next year.

 

[mmd]

Most people simply can not swing $90k for a Model X 75.

But need seating for 6-7 people and/or cargo capacity of a minivan. Many can afford $42k.

Fiat Chrysler and Honda buy the bulk of Tesla ZEV credits.

I think the Pacifica Hybrid will sell like hot cakes.

And reduce the need for Chrysler to buy more Tesla ZEVs.

BTW Yes, I think with all of LG Chem's clients their battery cell/pack factories should be humming next year.

Yes, I am pleasantly surprised at the low pricing. I guess, FCA figured they will do this vs. sell only a few and buy ZEV credits. In CA, it is really $33k after $7500 fed credit and $1500 state rebate, vs. $80k(?) for Tesla Model X 75.

There will still be many people buying the Model X, as it is also a status symbol, besides other things.
Then there are some with long commutes who may want an all electric car.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Yes, I am pleasantly surprised at the low pricing. I guess, FCA figured they will do this vs. sell only a few and buy ZEV credits. In CA, it is really $32k after fed credit + state rebates, vs. $80k(?) for Tesla Model X 75.

There will still be many people buying the Model X, as it is also a status symbol, besides other things.
Then there are some with long commutes who may want an all electric car.

Thanks for posting that video. What I found really interesting is how he said that the minivan was quiet. That was my wife's original complaint about minivans. Also it seems that FCA is serious about selling these, since they will be available in all 50 states. That will be a remarkable transition from FCA. Hopefully they will follow through with the Pacifica Hybrid as it seems like a good product based on the video (recall they were a signatory on that letter to Trump to relax standards, etc...).

 

[RobStark]

Yes, I am pleasantly surprised at the low pricing. I guess, FCA figured they will do this vs. sell only a few and buy ZEV credits. In CA, it is really $32k after fed credit + state rebates, vs. $80k(?) for Tesla Model X 75.

There will still be many people buying the Model X, as it is also a status symbol, besides other things.
Then there are some with long commutes who may want an all electric car.

FCA has lots of Fed Credits left but not inexhaustible. I like quoting the real MSRP not after all the maybe savings. Some people that can afford the Pacifica Hybrid might only have a $6k Federal Tax liability and not worth it to lease then buy at the end of lease.

Pacifica Hybrid qualifies for a $1500 CA credit not $2500. Just like the Volt. As long as money is in the CA State fund and you make less than $150k per year or file jointly and make less than $300k. People that qualify for special low income super rebates probably can't afford the Pacifica Hybrid in the first place, even with upto $4500 off.

And yes, not every car is for everybody. Some will prefer an all electric car,some a Prius Hybrid, and some dunces a Mirai or Tucson FCEV