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tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
So the tiles are very cool, I love the choices.
However they're all kind of meaningless to hundreds of thousands of people in the Southwest like me who live in flat-roof adobe-architecture style homes. No way I would put designer Tesla Glass tiles on a flat roof that nobody can see. I guess I'm stuck with a conventional ground-based set of panels or roof-based raised-angle racks of panels from some other company. I do want Tesla batteries however.
However they're all kind of meaningless to hundreds of thousands of people in the Southwest like me who live in flat-roof adobe-architecture style homes. No way I would put designer Tesla Glass tiles on a flat roof that nobody can see. I guess I'm stuck with a conventional ground-based set of panels or roof-based raised-angle racks of panels from some other company. I do want Tesla batteries however.
So the PowerWall 2 pricing, including the inverter, comes up to $393/kWh ($5500 / 14kWh) vs. original PowerWall price of $468/kWh without the inverter. This is a huge drop.
There is no information on Pricing of the PowerPack 2, but if it is priced similar to the PowerWall 2 it will be a huge blow to any competitor. The original PowerWall was priced at $445/kWh plus $208/kW for the inverter. The typical 2hr rated system with inverter rated in kW at half of the battery capacity in kWh, the total system price was $445 + $208 / 2 = $549/kWh. Even taking into account that continuous kW rating of the PowerWall is less than half of it's capacity in kWh, we can expect that overall price of the PowerPack system will be cut substantially, by about 25%.
It looks like the PowerWall 2 and PowerPack 2 are going to deliver a major blow to the competition.
There is no information on Pricing of the PowerPack 2, but if it is priced similar to the PowerWall 2 it will be a huge blow to any competitor. The original PowerWall was priced at $445/kWh plus $208/kW for the inverter. The typical 2hr rated system with inverter rated in kW at half of the battery capacity in kWh, the total system price was $445 + $208 / 2 = $549/kWh. Even taking into account that continuous kW rating of the PowerWall is less than half of it's capacity in kWh, we can expect that overall price of the PowerPack system will be cut substantially, by about 25%.
It looks like the PowerWall 2 and PowerPack 2 are going to deliver a major blow to the competition.
I agree with tinm...I am so glad I already popped conventional PV panels on our flat-roofed southwest-style winter house, as now I don't have to feel conflicted about what we saw tonight!
I am pretty sure that Tesla will have two lines of solar products: one for new residential and commercial roofing and another for existing residential and commercial roofing and grid-scale solar. The second line of products can be used for installation on flat roofing.
Well, the variation depends on where you live and your life style. If you live in a temperate climate all year long then the seasonal variation would be small. But if you live in places that have hot summers and like to have the house temperature at 72F, then summer consumption would be quite high. Daily consumption can easily vary between 20 kWh to 60 kWh between seasons in the later scenario. Usually in these places the average is higher, too. But I did make a mistake by saying peak 2-3 times of average, I was thinking the spread between min and max. On average, the peak is about 30% higher than average (Homes show greatest seasonal variation in electricity use - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)). So let's say peak is 40 kWh a day. If you want to combat that peak demand with solar, on average you get about 5 hours of sunshine a day. Factoring in the loss in transiting the energy with the wire and inverter, it's about 4 hours effectively. So on those 40 kWh peak days, you'll need a 10 kW solar panels just to generate enough to cover consumption. The average residential solar size is about 5 kW (Solar Photovoltaic Technology) so we're already starting to stretch a little. A 10 kW solar system is about $45k before installation. With Solar Roof, I can't imagine the price would be lower with the additional materials needed in it. Buffalo may bring down the cost on par with current solar panels so I'll go with this price. Then you need to pair it with 4 Powerwall (13.5 kWh * 90% efficiency = 12.15 kWh usable each), which is another $22k. Add in installation for maybe $2-3k then the system costs about $70k. At $0.129/kWh residential electricity price (EIA - Electricity Data) and an annual consumption of 11k KWh, you need 50 years to cover the cost of going off grid. And in this situation you have no redundancy built in the system, which means you are at the mercy of everything going nicely as planned, no cloudy days when your consumption is highest, which is not gonna happen. Thrown in some redundancy, say, another Powerwall and additional 2 kW solar, that would be another 10 years to wait to let this choice to be economic.
And these numbers are the current average, meaning consumption of driving a Tesla is not factored in. Say you have a Tesla Model 3 and drives it 40 miles a day (Your commute is costing you more than you realize). Model S has an efficiency about 0.33 kWh/mi (Life With Tesla Model S: One Year And 15,000 Miles Later). Model 3 is definitely going to do better so let's say it would be 0.2 kWh/mi. Then that adds 8 kWh daily consumption you need to cover with the off-grid solar roof+powerwall, which is another 20% cost of the system illustrated above, or another 10 years of wait to reach cost parity. If your household drives 2 Model 3, another 10 years. Of course with the EV in the equation, at tiered pricing, electricity price would go up too. But even at $0.2/kWh, we're talking ~50 years.
Going completely off-grid is just not worth it.
OTOH, with 6 kW of solar and 2 Powerwall, or a $40k system, you can save about 24 kWh a day, or $1.1k a year, or 35 years of wait. But then throw in the cost of a traditional roof, at about $6.5k (Learn how much it costs to Install a Roof.), and an average life time of 20 years. Assuming Solar Roof last longer than that (otherwise the previous calculation needs to be doubled or tripled). The additional cost of the solar+battery system is actually maybe around $30k, covered within 27 years.
But then the 10 years warranty on Powerwall complicates the whole thing.
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Get the money ready to buy more stock or Powerwall?Fantastic event. Lots of enthusiasm and excitement. Production ready in Decembershipment in January.. get your money ready folks.
Just to add, the above compares with typical (non-discounted) competitor pricing for a 2hr rated system of about $600 kWh.
mmd
Active Member
Agree with most of what you said, and good research. But you may be unaware, that utilities give low rates at night for EV charging. PGE has EV rate plan, where your EV charging at night is not tiered. Quite sure SCE has an EV plan too.
Making sense of the rates
PG&E said:
MartinAustin
Active Member
Exactly.
I love the product and can't wait to have it all installed on my house. However, my house is 13yrs old and has a "30-year" shingle roof, so theoretically I would need a hailstorm to have a good reason to install it.
(speaking of which... roll on hailstorm... that way my insurance can pay for a Tesla solar roof!!! BOOM)
I can't see myself having them remove the existing roof and putting on a Tesla roof. And hey - I already bought the Model S in 2013. This time, I am happy to wait 6 months to a year while the teething problems get worked out, after which my roof will be about 15years old... maybe time to rip it off
And just to be clear, I'm not against this solar roof+powerwall thing. I like it, a lot. I'm willing to wait or pay an additional few k for this life style and that beautiful roof.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Very scientific. However you are ignoring the costs of the "untaxed negative externalities" that Elon constantly talks about. You're focusing on the short-term result to your bank account that installing this system will have. Eventually however, you will also end up paying, likely through federal taxes, for enormous public works projects that the government will have to put into place, aimed at protecting the country from climate-change. Alternatively your government may institute a carbon usage tax, so that the money for the enormous public works projects comes more directly from the folks using fossil fuels, either in their vehicles, or when they use their home utilities, or when they eat industrial-raised meat. (Didn't Trudeau just propose instituting a carbon tax?)
One shorter version of which is, home electricity will become more expensive from fossil-fuel-burning utilities, and when it does, the Tesla roof will make a lot more financial sense.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
The difficulty of going off grid varies enormously with location (edit, fallen said something similar while I typed). In Seattle where insolation varies by about a factor of 4 throughout the year (for a 30 degree roof) and prolonged cloud cover is common you'd probably need >100kWh of storage and 40kW of solar to have a decent chance of (an average house) making it through the year without a shortfall.
In Flagstaff, where prolonged cloud cover is rare and solar insolation varies by only about 25% throughout the year, you would probably be fine with a 12kW array and 3 powerwalls most years.
That's about a 3x difference in cost just for changing locations within the US. If I was in Seattle no way would I consider going off grid, if I was in Flagstaff I'd consider it.
$5500 is close to what you'd pay for a super-ghetto lead acid DIY 14kWh/5kW set up. I suspect Tesla won't have the capacity to satisfy the demand for PowerWalls for some time.
In Flagstaff, where prolonged cloud cover is rare and solar insolation varies by only about 25% throughout the year, you would probably be fine with a 12kW array and 3 powerwalls most years.
That's about a 3x difference in cost just for changing locations within the US. If I was in Seattle no way would I consider going off grid, if I was in Flagstaff I'd consider it.
$5500 is close to what you'd pay for a super-ghetto lead acid DIY 14kWh/5kW set up. I suspect Tesla won't have the capacity to satisfy the demand for PowerWalls for some time.
sub
Active Member
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I didn't crunch the numbers but your math seems way off based on my experience. I have an 8kw system that was installed 4+ years ago. I think we would all agree prices have come down since then no? I paid 27k! For me to add 2kw that would have added less than 6k using basic math and knowing install costs would not increase much at all.
That means your number is off a minimum of 25%, probably closer to 35-40% based on solar price decreases,
My system will pay for itself in ~6 years when the federal rebate is factored in.
Seems you tried to draw the worst picture possible, not surprising. Do you have solar?
Tesla the energy company is starting to make a whole lot of sense. Elon definitely knows what he is doing. Future competition is the only thing I'm concerned about in all areas of their business.
Being that this is the short-term thread, unfortunately I do not believe the SP will have much reaction. The market has been shrugging off both positive and negative TSLA news quite well these days. In my opinion, these products are already baked into the current share price. Very long term, TSLA looks brighter than ever. I still feel we're stuck around ~200-220 for quite some time. Would love to be wrong though (in the positive direction). Wall street wants continuous positive cash flow before the SP breaks out again. Hype/product announcements won't do it anymore.
Disclaimer: long TSLA
Being that this is the short-term thread, unfortunately I do not believe the SP will have much reaction. The market has been shrugging off both positive and negative TSLA news quite well these days. In my opinion, these products are already baked into the current share price. Very long term, TSLA looks brighter than ever. I still feel we're stuck around ~200-220 for quite some time. Would love to be wrong though (in the positive direction). Wall street wants continuous positive cash flow before the SP breaks out again. Hype/product announcements won't do it anymore.
Disclaimer: long TSLA
Looks like you got a good deal then. SCTY's latest ER says their cost is $3.05/W. Since I don't own solar I can't provide personal anecdote on how much is the cost on the customer's side, but according to California Solar Statistics, the industrial average is around $4.33/W (California Solar Statistics). This number was updated just two days ago.
And yes I don't know anything about the rebate so definitely that helps a lot too.
And the picture I painted was far from worst if we're discussing 100% off grid. Solar Roof+Powerwall makes a lot of sense in offsetting about 20 kWh/day and can reach cost parity within two decades if you have that federal rebate. Plus you get the benefit of not worrying about outage, reducing your externalize to the environment, a beautiful roof, a fashion lifestyle, and all other goodies that are hard to put a $ on. What I'm saying is it doesn't make sense to go 100% off-grid.
larmor
Active Member
I think for short term purposes, now is the time to get value for tsla. This is before analysts, people with spreadsheets and calculators, and people running large industries and utilities see value. Also in the short term, we can see the social media companies vying to find value: twitter broadcasts NFL games, but both twitter and the NFL are trending down. It was only recently that FB figured out how to make $$. Other socially connected services are just that services that act as a data broker. There is only so many ways to slice the data pie. And then once the advertiser consumes the data, they expect the consumer to gorge based on regurgitation of the data 'presented' to them... May be that's why FB's side business is to provide internet service to under served areas, to create another business or to find more consumers (time will tell)?
TM and TE is now about energy, the commodity is energy. And we can get it from pge, sce, etc, or now directly from the sun to run our house, car, etc.
Market forces balance rationally over time, but getting there are many irrational steps where value can be seen and information is imperfect...
sub
Active Member
I wasn't making an argument that removing a house from the grid would be cost effective, just pointing out the major flaws in your math.
The world is a big place, doesn't need to work everywhere now, just enough locations to get going while costs keep coming down over time. In fact, I think Tesla may have used this same concept with another product they manufacture, rhymes with car.
Seems to be standard procedure on the net however for everyone to be an expert and jump to conclusions while possessing little to no information in comparison to Elon and gang.
I prefer to sit back and let them do their job, I'm fairly confident they got this.
Paula Mints, chief market research analyst at SPV Market Research, questions the economics of the new offering, which can be combined with a home battery.
“Tesla announced a solar tile -- not new -- with battery that is priced below cost,” said Mints in an e-mail. “Basically Tesla announced another way to lose money.”
Elon Musk Reveals Solar Roof Made of Glass Tiles in L.A.
This is absurd, do they really think Tesla comes up whit a price were they loose money.
“Tesla announced a solar tile -- not new -- with battery that is priced below cost,” said Mints in an e-mail. “Basically Tesla announced another way to lose money.”
Elon Musk Reveals Solar Roof Made of Glass Tiles in L.A.
This is absurd, do they really think Tesla comes up whit a price were they loose money.
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Well, then I suggest you take it to the California Solar Statistics, according to their stats, an 8 kW solar system right now will cost the user $5.28/W on average, or $42k in total. Major flaw in their math.
And if you read my post, you would know I never said this Solar Roof+Powerwall was to help people 100% off the grid. But well, my mind may be easily read by others.
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