Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[aubreymcfato]

Meanwhile:
http://jalopnik.com/six-more-senior-staffers-at-faraday-future-have-jumped-1788189695

 

[Value Ev]

Taking actual orders now for Powerwall 2.0 including $500 (US) deposit per Powerwall. Also installation cost of $1000 for a total of $6500. Very good deal! Tesla Powerwall

And now it begins ....

If you have average US usage of 900kw/day, according to the site, you need two powerwalls.

 

[Krugerrand]

He said cheaper than a conventional roof plus electricity. I'm sure it's a long term home run! How many people on this forum believe that they will buy one of these roofs?

More details are necessary for investors and exactly the same details are required for potential customers, so I'm sure (a little nervously), that the required information is coming soon. The only question I have is how long this takes to move the SP up. It's encouraging that they have already built enough tiles for 4 (?) houses.

BTW specs and prices for the new powerwall are awesome!

Yes, you're right - plus electricity.

I'll buy one.

People can do their own math - go cost out a roof for your house, look at your electricity bills, etc., etc., Anyone who needs to be hand fed EVERY. SINGLE. LITTLE. DETAIL. is well....at the very least and the nicest I could come up with - lazy. And laziness is a poor excuse at this point in time of adulthood.

 

[CaliBear1]

Yes, you're right - plus electricity.

I'll buy one.

People can do their own math - go cost out a roof for your house, look at your electricity bills, etc., etc., Anyone who needs to be hand fed EVERY. SINGLE. LITTLE. DETAIL. is well....at the very least and the nicest I could come up with - lazy. And laziness is a poor excuse at this point in time of adulthood.

But that's what our able Tesla Energy sales associates are here for, yes? ;-)

 

[Value Ev]

This is all hype. Tesla is going down. Short the stock while you can before it hits zero!

I don't know why you are trolling, but the stock will not hit zero.
If there is a huge decline, there will be a buyout of the company, perhaps Google or Apple or Daimler.
There is no hype in this announcement since they didn't actually mention any numbers or how financially significant this is. It was just a show and tell of a new product.

 

[Krugerrand]

In a way this could be a bigger deal than the electric car for Tesla

Um, yeah. That's what he's been saying alllllllllllll along.

 

[Seesaw]

I see the SolarCity merger as even more pointless now as this new roof will be demanded globally where there is no SC presence and I think people will move away from panels being bolted on the roof and have these roofs put together by roofing and building contractors.

This product is revolutionary. I think it will totally transform the way houses are designed and built around the world. It is a stunning achievement by Tesla.

 

[Bgarret]

So a quick back of napkin pass at the economics/value proposition over 10years:

Powerwall 2.0: $5,500.00 Payment: $48/mo
Solar Roof: $40,000.00 Payment $400/mo
Utility savings: (-$250/mo - my bill with electric car)
State/federal discounts: -30% Federal of $45,500 = $13,650



Get, good looking replacement/new roof and battery backup for $45,500 - $13,650 federal tax credit = $31,850 all day.

This would be a monthly payment of $308.00, offset by reduced utility bill of $250.00, or all in for $58.00 (significantly less than most pay for cable).

Now bundle a Model III in this package @ ASP of $42,000....what do you get?

Replacement roof, no utility bills, no car fuel bills, backup power supply, electric car w/autonomous driving for $709 - $250 utility costs $150/mo auto fuel or all in for $309.00 for 10 years....then no more payment.

(That's without the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric car and any state tax credits for renewable energy or electric cars.....likely, depending on you geography, timing and changes in incentives, you could easily get this to 0-$200).

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I don't know why you are trolling, but the stock will not hit zero.
If there is a huge decline, there will be a buyout of the company, perhaps Google or Apple or Daimler.
There is no hype in this announcement since they didn't actually mention any numbers or how financially significant this is. It was just a show and tell of a new product.

Keep reading my friend........nobody is more bullish than Arsenal!

 

[AntronX]

Does anyone know if you can charge the PowerWall from the Grid?

It would be a great use to time-shift energy usage from low cost off peak to peak usage.

Your price delta needs to be at least $0.112 between off and on peak rates just to break even with this new power wall.

 

[Vitold]

-

I don't know why you are trolling, but the stock will not hit zero.
If there is a huge decline, there will be a buyout of the company, perhaps Google or Apple or Daimler.
There is no hype in this announcement since they didn't actually mention any numbers or how financially significant this is. It was just a show and tell of a new product.

Powerwall 2.0 website, where you can 'order' one, says that installations start in January 2017. That's pretty specific.

 

[MitchJi]

Yes, you're right - plus electricity.

I'll buy one.

People can do their own math - go cost out a roof for your house, look at your electricity bills, etc., etc., Anyone who needs to be hand fed EVERY. SINGLE. LITTLE. DETAIL. is well....at the very least and the nicest I could come up with - lazy. And laziness is a poor excuse at this point in time of adulthood.

You can do better than that. The market, Krugerrand, the market. You know, the people who think Tesla loses money on every car.

Plus shipping dates and production levels.

 

[brian45011]

Hence I never thought the available shares to short metric is a reliable metric in anyway.

Near the weekend the discussion is all about Max Pain based on options expiring; during the week it's all about the 'shorts" as if the MMs do not dynamically adjust their books on anything other than the underlying share trades. Go figure (or ask Ihor).

 

[Krugerrand]

But that's what our able Tesla Energy sales associates are here for, yes? ;-)

 

[racer26]

Your price delta needs to be at least $0.112 between off and on peak rates just to break even with this new power wall.

Lets break that down with some math.

14kWh Powerwall

If I fully charge it in offpeak and discharge in onpeak, I can shift 14kWh of usage per day.
Powerwall is guaranteed for 10 years, or 3652 days.

3652 * 14 = 51,128 kWh shifted.

My power bill here in Ontario has a 9.3c/kWh delta on the onpeak (18c/kWh) to offpeak (8.7c/kWh) charge

51,128 * CAD$0.093 = CAD$4754.90

That's a far cry from covering the CAD$7800 powerwall (nevermind the CAD$1350 installation).

Flipping the numbers around:

CAD$9150 / 51,128 = CAD$0.179

I would need the off-peak to on-peak rate delta to be $0.179/kWh to justify a powerwall for the purpose of usage shifting alone.

Using the US Pricing for the Americans out there:

USD$6500 / 51,128 = USD$0.127/kWh off-to-on peak pricing delta to justify.

 

[MitchJi]

Tesla Powerwall 2 is a game changer in home energy storage: 14 kWh w/ inverter for $5,500

<snip>
At $5,500 including a ‘Tesla inverter’, it could easily end up being a game changer in the industry. Most residential systems today are offered for a similar price, but either have about half the energy capacity or they don’t have an integrated inverter.
<snip>
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that he expects to sell more Powerwalls than cars and at the price point, he could very well be right. Tesla expects that the first Powerwall 2 units will start shipping in December with installations beginning January 2017.

Of course, Tesla unveiled the new Powerwall 2 with its new solar roof solutions developed with SolarCity. Tesla is really pushing the Powerwall to be combined with solar energy, whether it’d be a solar roof if you need your roof to be replaced soon or with solar panels installed on the roof. Though Tesla’s solar roof will come later. The first installations are expected for summer 2017.
<snip>

 

[NicoV]

I feel crazy, off the hook. I definitely know what my next roof will be! It makes no sense to go any other way if they can keep it affordable.

Me too. However, I don't see many houses retrofitted with a new roof where I live. MY dad's house is 50 years old and still doesn't need a new roof.

 

[Ovulation]

Lets break that down with some math.

14kWh Powerwall

If I fully charge it in offpeak and discharge in onpeak, I can shift 14kWh of usage per day.
Powerwall is guaranteed for 10 years, or 3652 days.

3652 * 14 = 51,128 kWh shifted.

My power bill here in Ontario has a 9.3c/kWh delta on the onpeak (18c/kWh) to offpeak (8.7c/kWh) charge

51,128 * CAD$0.093 = CAD$4754.90

That's a far cry from covering the CAD$7800 powerwall (nevermind the CAD$1350 installation).

Flipping the numbers around:

CAD$9150 / 51,128 = CAD$0.179

I would need the off-peak to on-peak rate delta to be $0.179/kWh to justify a powerwall for the purpose of usage shifting alone.

I think people are too obsessed with the 'economic sense', there are lot of guys (like me) who simply want to be off the grid, especially when the solarpanels look like a luxury roof ^^

 

[BornToFly]

My sales estimate of $50 Billion/year in 2018 did not include 100 Million new roofs a year world wide. My God TSLA stock is cheap right now!

 

[Krugerrand]

You can do better than that. The market, Krugerrand, the market. You know, the people who think Tesla loses money on every car.

Plus shipping dates and production levels.

I'm not allowed to say what I really want to say on this forum about 'The Market'. I'm quite sure, though, that no matter how good the details, the pricing, or the fine print, 'The Market' will still not get it. There will still be some flaw in it all. A slew of 'competition' just around the next corner. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

It's a home run, all day long, every day no matter whose head the ball just flew over.