Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Fallenone]

The idea of solar roof seems a bit weird to me. There are only certain portions of the roof that get optimal sunlight, like the south side. The back side of my home is always under shade of some trees, but front is OK. So, why would anyone make the entire roof solar?

Secondly, how long will these last? Tile roofs typically last 50-100 years, concrete tiles 50 years, shingles 20 years. If the cost is compared to tile roof, will they also last as long as tile roofs?

Thirdly, the repairability. A tile breaks, any roofer can come replace it easily. I have done some myself. Wonder how that works here. So workers should be able to walk on these. Was walking on the panels demonstrated?

The fourth problem is, if this is as efficient as regular panels, that means massive oversizing. Only 10% (or less) of my roof has solar, and that is good enough for my electricity needs. If I will over produce, I wlil have to sell the excess at 4c/kwh to PG&E. Any additional cost of the roof won't make sense at such low payouts.

1. The unit is tile. The roof is made of many tiles. You can have normal ones for the shaded areas of your roof. Also you can just do partial Solar Roof if you think having the entire roof generating electricity is an overkill.

2. It was demonstrated the Solar Roof can withstand more impact than other traditional roof materials.

3. Repair, not sure. But given 2, it might not even be something to worry about.

 

[brian45011]

[QUOTE="Yggdrasill, post: 1804263, member: 9296" if you don't own the point of sale, you are at the mercy of the middleman.
[/QUOTE]

That's particularly relevant if you are a risk taker and self-insure the product liability exposure. If a middleman was involved and a residence ever burns down, all there would be is finger pointing

 

[anon]

The new Tesla PowerWall page is quoting January 2017 for new installations.

 

[Krugerrand]

I also assume they can tint the glass to get a variety of colors

If you listen to the presentation he talks about coloring.

 

[aubreymcfato]

The Tuscan roof had active and non-active tiles (he said that).
Another one (the second?) had long tiles, and half of them was non-active. You could see the reflex of the cells when he was moving it.

 

[stealthology]

Why no Q&A

Oh God please no.

My guess is Elon is losing a little bit of sleep because of SP issues. I am too.

 

[Seesaw]

In a way this could be a bigger deal than the electric car for Tesla

 

[racer26]

The new Tesla PowerWall page is quoting January 2017 for new installations.

On the UK page? Its quoting a $7800 price, $650 deposit and Jan'17 delivery (+$1350 for installation and supporting hardware) on the Canadian site.

 

[CaliBear1]

Time to invest in sand, soda ash and limestone! Those variants are gorgeous. As the presentation unfolded and Elon said all the homes had solar roofs, I thought to myself there's no way the terra cotta tile roofed home on the block was included in that statement. I was stunned when he turned to that home. Just an amazing variant on a whole group of amazing options. I can't wait to get the details on the energy absorption and costs of installation and maintenance. If they truly are competitive when considering cost and energy savings, Tesla Solar is going to dominate the market. Better not lay off too many installers!

Was it my imagination or did all the Teslas emerge from the garages via summons and sans drivers? If so, VERY cool. If not, I'm content with my imagination.

And that silver Model 3? Sexy! If I don't change my reservation to an S, that is definitely going to be my color choice.
Nothing noticeably different on this 3 than the other observed mules. Imagine if the "pencils down" version of the 3 had been rolled out without any fanfare and it featured the new fascia of its siblings or a subtle reworking of its current fascia to soften the "fish" mouth. The Internet would have gone bonkers! But, nobody would have remembered the stunningly beautiful solar roof panels!

 

[MitchJi]

Did you not listen to him? He said that they wanted to make a product that was cheaper than a conventional roof. It's just like the cars. It has to be a compelling product on all levels; looks, cost etc...

He said cheaper than a conventional roof plus electricity. I'm sure it's a long term home run! How many people on this forum believe that they will buy one of these roofs?

More details are necessary for investors and exactly the same details are required for potential customers, so I'm sure (a little nervously), that the required information is coming soon. The only question I have is how long this takes to move the SP up. It's encouraging that they have already built enough tiles for 4 (?) houses.

BTW specs and prices for the new powerwall are awesome!

 

[Value Ev]

googling for: "average household electricity bill"

I get:

"Average Monthly Electrical Bill by State – Updated Data. According to latest release from the U.S. Department of Energy – Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average residential monthly electric bill was $110.21 in 2013"

so if I buy a Powerwall for $5500 and have a solar roof installed... then it would take me 4 years to recoup that cost... so the question would be... how long does the battery last?

You also have to figure out whether or not you can generate that much electricity with the solar panels.

Average home use is 900kwh per day which means you need a 8.5Mw system on average, assuming that all those panels have good sun access.
Off-Grid Solar System Calculator

It is a little shameful that here in Northern California some random solar company advertises that a customer can run their AC all summer and never pay anything for electricity. We have a 5M system which takes up a lot of roof space and we have great sun exposure, but I am a long way from running AC all summer for free.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Overall I think the integrated solar system is a compelling vision for Tesla Energy.

The roof tiles look great, and I appreciate the variable styling and how normal they look. PowerWall 2.0 is a big step forward in terms of capacity and integrated inverter. It's a much better value to the consumer than PowerWall 1.0.

Costs on Solar Roof are what I'd like to see, and how it compares to existing solutions.

I see massive potential here.

Product and integration look good. I want to see how the business side of this works out, and I know that Tesla and SolarCity are going to release additional details next week according to a letter I received with proxy vote materials.

 

[EinSV]

Taking actual orders now for Powerwall 2.0 including $500 (US) deposit per Powerwall. Also installation cost of $1000 for a total of $6500. Very good deal! Tesla Powerwall

And now it begins ....

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

This is all hype. Tesla is going down. Short the stock while you can before it hits zero! Remember what Big Daddy Kevin O'Leary had to say....Tesla is a one trick pony. They make cars. That's it......LOL.

O'Leary is going to look so stupid. He is Mr. Carbon and only likes oil and gas as his brother is / was an Oil and Gas VP in Calgary. They look after each other. Big oil.

https://ca.linkedin.com/in/shane-o-leary-42b6592a

 

[racer26]

Time to invest in sand, soda ash and limestone! Those variants are gorgeous. As the presentation unfolded and Elon said all the homes had solar roofs, I thought to myself there's no way the terra cotta tile roofed home on the block was included in that statement. I was stunned when he turned to that home. Just an amazing variant on a whole group of amazing options. I can't wait to get the details on the energy absorption and costs of installation and maintenance. If they truly are competitive when considering cost and energy savings, Tesla Solar is going to dominate the market. Better not lay off too many installers!

Was it my imagination or did all the Teslas emerge from the garages via summons and sans drivers? If so, VERY cool. If not, I'm content with my imagination.

And that silver Model 3? Sexy! If I don't change my reservation to an S, that is definitely going to be my color choice.
Nothing noticeably different on this 3 than the other observed mules. Imagine if the "pencils down" version of the 3 had been rolled out without any fanfare and it featured the new fascia of its siblings or a subtle reworking of its current fascia to soften the "fish" mouth. The Internet would have gone bonkers! But, nobody would have remembered the stunningly beautiful solar roof panels!

The ones that emerged from the garages did indeed do so with summon.

I believe that silver Model 3 to be the same alpha prototype that was shown on March 31 and gave test rides. I went back and compared the video.

 

[anon]

On the UK page? Its quoting a $7800 price, $650 deposit and Jan'17 delivery (+$1350 for installation and supporting hardware) on the Canadian site.

I was looking at the US website for Jan installation. UK is offering Feb.

 

[Value Ev]

Does anyone know if you can charge the PowerWall from the Grid?

It would be a great use to time-shift energy usage from low cost off peak to peak usage.

edit: hmm. Looks like you can order without having solar, so I guess the answer is yes. That may be something I look at since the delta between off and peak pricing is huge

 

[EinSV]

I wonder if on Tuesday we get info on the number of Powerwall/Powerpack orders. Now that has serious potential to move the SP.

But Tesla has been playing TE very close to the vest .....

 

[brian45011]

[QUOTE="RobStark, post: 1804276, member: 14787"With such low labor intensity, even at American Buffalo NY labor rates spread over a GW of panels, the labor cost advantage of Chinese manufactures can't be that great if there is one at all.[/QUOTE]

Ya think Panasonic will prefer NY labor vigorish and corruption over the Japanese variety?

 

[racer26]

You also have to figure out whether or not you can generate that much electricity with the solar panels.

Average home use is 900kwh per day which means you need a 8.5Mw system on average, assuming that all those panels have good sun access.
Off-Grid Solar System Calculator

It is a little shameful that here in Northern California some random solar company advertises that a customer can run their AC all summer and never pay anything for electricity. We have a 5M system which takes up a lot of roof space and we have great sun exposure, but I am a long way from running AC all summer for free.

Average home use is NOWHERE NEAR 900 kWh per day.

My typical use over 3 different homes has ranged from about 25-45kWh per day, around 2000kWh per month.

I was looking at the US website for Jan installation. UK is offering Feb.

Then I'm guessing that's a live date and the first bunch are already selling? Electrek is reporting US deliveries to start in December.

Does anyone know if you can charge the PowerWall from the Grid?

It would be a great use to time-shift energy usage from low cost off peak to peak usage.

edit: hmm. Looks like you can order without having solar, so I guess the answer is yes. That may be something I look at since the delta between off and peak pricing is huge

Yes, you can. Its a use case that Tesla has advertised for it.