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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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After 2 days is still can't digest Elon's sentence: "It's people against Uber...". I trust the guy, it has always been the case, but now I think his mouth was faster than his brains (people love Uber as a service) as if he was getting used to be under the spotlights lately ;)
Nothing changes for me, I'm 99.9% with him (instead of 100), but can anyone give me some color on this please?

Follow the money. The money goes to Tesla car owners and not to Uber.
 
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It does seem safe to assume the the solar roof to be unveiled tonight is probably a year away from being manufactured at scale…especially since the Riverbed facility needs to be fitted out and Panasonic manufacturing is contingent upon the Tesla/Solarcity merger. So tonight event is likely about creating some buzz; showing the synergies of a residential roof, home storage and home charging; and gauging consumer interest. It’s not likely to alter the stock price in the near term, and may leave bigger questions regarding what the Solarcity installation staff do while awaiting a new product. I would imagine some ‘osborning’ of conventional solar panel roofs once the solar roof is publicized.

I’ve mentioned before, that I think the merged company will move aggressively on commercial installations of solar+battery storage, which Tesla could not have done without a solar installation partner. The prize for Tesla would be with a large national or international retail/commercial chain that controls its own real estate, such that some of its parking spaces are converted to Supercharger spaces as part of the solar+storage deal.

This would show synergy between TE, Solarcity takeover, and Tesla Motors Supercharger expansion. With a single agreement they could sell hundreds of million in solar+storage and simultaneously expand the reach and density of Superchargers while keeping Solarcity’s installers active while the solar roof manufacturing scales. All it takes is one agreement with the likes of Wal-mart, McDonalds (36000 locations worldwide), or a major hotel chain, and the benefits of the merger will be solidified. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Elon already has deals worked out that he could announce (pure speculation-but it seems very plausible).

Thanks for pointing this out. I too think there is some large scale deal that EM has pending. IIRC just a week or two before his June announcement regarding SCTY/TSLA merger, he had met for a long time with Ash Carter (Secretary of Defense). Maybe just a coincidence or some underlying motivator for Elon?
 
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All accounting is an approximation of reality that facilitates making comparisons (period-to-period, similar companies, etc.) consistently.

There is an opportunity cost for those zero-basis RSUs and discounted ESPP shares. If an equivalent number of shares were sold in a follow-on offering, it would provide more cash to the corporate treasury in order to fund CapEX and repay debt.

And that opportunity cost is reflected in the fully diluted earnings per share number that all companies publish anyways. There is no need to muddy up the COMPANY's earnings statement with something that reflects the company's ownership structure. The shareholders and the company are two separate things. The company stands alone as an entity and its financial statements should reflect how that entity operates.

In addition, very few public companies raise money through equity offerings every year. So you mess up ALL company's earnings, and EPS (while you have full diluted EPS which takes stock based compensation into account) to take into account opportunity cost for the few growth companies that sell new equity every year?
 
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@myusername I agree with you, Elon probably didn't expect the stock to be where it is now. It makes no difference to me. I already voted and would cast my vote "FOR" even if the stock goes to 2 dollars a share.

My support to Elon and Tesla is not based on stock price. I am convinced Tesla is doing great things for the world, and they are working really hard. Base on my research, Tesla is clearly turning into a giant in the next few years.

I am willing to donate all my money to Tesla when they need it. I retired from my engineering job a few years ago. I plan to go back to work again, as a volunteer. I can automate any production process, including wire harness and motor production. Of course Tesla can achieve full automation without me. I also understand they have a lot of tasks on their plate with tight schedules. I am going to do my part to help.
 
There's a countdown clock on the Livestream....is that wise??? How many numbers can it go negative? Maybe limited to on time start by the sun? Hint to future Tesla event planners, have some intractable deadline that makes events start on time.

Edit: As I was typing, countdown clock went away...not a good sign.
 
No. He had a terrible record, if I remember correctly, in predicting the Republican primary. But he is usually regarded as the best in part because he does no polling himself.
This is how he did in 2012

Was Nate Silver the Most Accurate 2012 Election Pundit? - CFAR

Been following Nate since 2008....he's good.

Designed the Pecota baseball statistical modeling system over a decade ago...turned his attention to politics soon after. Wanted to take some of the horse-racy, speculative analysis out of the system. His book, The Signal and the Noise is a good read. Will help you understand the success of Tesla and SpaceX increased the probability of electric car adoption and interplanetary transport/colonization expotentially. Probability, while still low, is growing quickly.

Advocate of Bayes Theorem for prababalistic modeling. (Now obviously bored with house music from solar roof event). Bayes' theorem - Wikipedia
 
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Is this where the party is or is it that other thread? DJ is slammin it so far.

I'm sippin on some Glenfiddich:

th
 
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