Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

This is all about politics. Market knows that on level playing field Clinton emails would ruin her and her campaign. Luckily she seems to have friends in high places. Who would have thought.


A Trump victory might not be terrible for Tesla and Scty and solar in general, but the market is betting that it would be very bad.

In the highly unlikely scenario Hillary is disqualified for some insane reason, Obama will declare martial law, and postpone the Election. Or maybe implement martial law, mulligan the current election, and force both parties to find another candidate. There is no scenario where Trump wins.

Petition: Block Donald J Trump from UK entry

 

[racer26]

I still don't understand why people are still talking like there is a significant chance Hillary doesn't win. Even with today's update, Nate Silver and the team at 538 still estimate Hillary as an 81% favourite.

The only way I see she doesn't win is if she's disqualified. In that case, I'm sure the election gets postponed until the Democrats nominate someone else.

 

[MitchJi]

I think we would have been headed for a $205 finish if the Hillary Clinton email scandal thing didn't blow up the market. Then it was a huge panic selling, which caused $200 to be in play.

Almost has nothing really to do with Tesla per say, other than people are freaked out with the macro conditions, the presidential election, and Tesla just isn't a safe place to be at the moment.

If trump wins our TSLA portfolio is the least of our worries.

This week has been pure manipulation. Far too many celebrity analysts have decided that SolarCity is a toxic company, without understanding anything about the company or the technology SolarCity has been working on. Chanos is being his usual chode self, and UBS has decided that SolarCity will be a cash drain for Tesla, rather than a cash vacuum. If the event tonight is a dud, both stocks will likely fall next week. I seriously doubt it will be.

If the event tonight and the November 1 events are both duds I agree that TSLA will likely fall. I don't believe that it will. I believe Elon is planning this and that he would not have attempted this without sufficient bullets.

After 2 days is still can't digest Elon's sentence: "It's people against Uber...". I trust the guy, it has always been the case, but now I think his mouth was faster than his brains (people love Uber as a service).

He means that instead of exploiting the car owners, like uber, that Tesla will minimize their profits and give a larger percentage to the owners .

Except for uber investors why would that possibly antagonize anyone?

 

[eloder]

This is all about politics. Market knows that on level playing field Clinton emails would ruin her and her campaign. Luckily she seems to have friends in high places. Who would have thought.


A Trump victory might not be terrible for Tesla and Scty and solar in general, but the market is betting that it would be very bad.

I highly suggest that you closely evaluate the platform of the Trump candidacy, along with every other red state out there. In case you haven't noticed where Tesla is legally forbidden to sell and service their cars falls almost perfectly within party lines simply because Teslas are electric cars.

Or if you don't believe facts, you could simply look at TSLA price today versus the rest of the market when the email story broke. Whether you personally understand the impacts of a Trump presidency or not, the market certainly understands it and Tesla (especially with SCTY in tow) will be heavily ravaged by such a presidency. Tesla probably won't be killed by an ultra-right presidency, but Solar City most certainly could. Imagine nationwide laws passed forbidding net metering and the residential solar revolution will die, and die fast and will have to restart from scratch in several years after off-grid is fully viable and cheap.

This is a very, very important item to watch in the near-term and like Brexit, it could still pop out of nowhere.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I still don't understand why people are still talking like there is a significant chance Hillary doesn't win. Even with today's update, Nate Silver and the team at 538 still estimate Hillary as an 81% favourite.

The only way I see she doesn't win is if she's disqualified. In that case, I'm sure the election gets postponed until the Democrats nominate someone else.

As I understand it, this late in the game, the only things that would allow for the Election to be postponed is if one of the candidates dies, or if Obama implements martial law to supersede the constitution.

 

[30seconds]

After 2 days is still can't digest Elon's sentence: "It's people against Uber...". I trust the guy, it has always been the case, but now I think his mouth was faster than his brains (people love Uber as a service) as if he was getting used to be under the spotlights lately
Nothing changes for me, I'm 99.9% with him (instead of 100), but can anyone give me some color on this please?

Two things. First Telsa makes money on the sale of the vehicle to the consumer, Uber does not. Second, the cost of a software implementation is small compared to the cost of scaling Tesla. By allowing the Model 3 purchaser to keep most of the revenue, Telsa will drive increased sales of the Model 3, which will hasten the transition to electric cars, reducing CO2, helping to mitigate global warming, helping to keep Earth a viable habitat for humans, and thereby giving people more time to make Mars a viable habitat

 

[dennis]

Does Tesla make their own batteries?
I know they make the battery pack, but I thought they buy their Batteries from Panasonic.

Panasonic makes the individual cells to Tesla's specifications. The power electronics, inverters and temperature conditioning apparatus are engineered and manufactured by Tesla.

 

[RobStark]

Or if you don't believe facts, you could simply look at TSLA price today versus the rest of the market when the email story broke. Whether you personally understand the impacts of a Trump presidency or not, the market certainly understands it and Tesla (especially with SCTY in tow) will be heavily ravaged by such a presidency.

No, the market doesn't understand Tesla nor Solar City.

They believe both are weak firms on the verge of bankruptcy dependent on Corporate Welfare.

We have a Presidential election not a civil war to determine a King.

There is nothing Trump can do that will ravage either Tesla or Solar City.

Trump has as many enemies among Congressional Republicans as he does among Congressional Democrats.

 

[bdy0627]

It's really hard to see either of these upcoming events moving the stock. Delivery numbers, AP2.0, and 3QER haven't done much. Not much reason to expect the next 2 events to do anything different. We simply have to get out past the merger a ways. Who was it that said he was sitting on the sidelines until the stock trades below 180 or above 220? That's looking like a solid approach. There are probably some better places for your short term investments right now. Keep the core long term holding of course.

 

[dha]

I still don't understand why people are still talking like there is a significant chance Hillary doesn't win. Even with today's update, Nate Silver and the team at 538 still estimate Hillary as an 81% favourite.

How do you not consider a 20% probability of Trump victory significant? If I told you there was a 20% chance of you getting into a car wreck next week, would you drive without insurance? Or at all?

The only way I see she doesn't win is if she's disqualified

That's just...not how probability works. At all. 1/5 chance is 1/5 chance.

The probability of rolling a 7 on a pair of dice is 17%--worse than Trump's odds at this moment, and that's before this new FBI news has been factored in. Would you go to Las Vegas and bet your TSLA position on a single roll of dice? Would you say "I just don't see how it can be a 7" ??

 

[esk8mw]

163xxx are all available as European inventory. There is pretty good chance 165x and 168x will end up on American inventory. It does show however that assigned vins != sold cars.

Thanks for the info on 163xxx cars. I do disagree with the last sentence, though. All cars are eventually sold, even if they serve some inventory duty first. If you assume we are more or less at steady state with inventory needs (I suppose there's a slightly higher need over time as Tesla opens more stores), then inventory VINs does equal cars sold - they are just replacing older VIN'd inventory that got sold in the prior quarter. If Tesla starts stockpiling inventory and selling new, unused cars off the lot like a dealer then I'd agree with you.

In any event, I like to look at VIN assignment more to get an idea on production rates. Based on this month's VIN assignments, it looks like the factory is really cranking. Obviously, it's also a (non-dispositive) indicator of demand. Good signs, in any event.

 

[RobStark]

Is Nate Silver omniscient ?

 

[myusername]

Seems you are right about that test today.

Although after hours TSLA is up 0.03 which gets it back to 200.

What do you think about the potential after the event tonight and the numbers discussion on Monday?

the downward trend continues... you can see that it clearly bounced off it after the ER and the direction is maintained. If there's something interesting tonight... maybe it will hold... but that's quite a weekly bear hammer that effectively broke all of the upward trendlines... if it starts heading down next week... then it's in real trouble... and if it looks like Trump has a fighting chance... things might get really ugly.

 

[myusername]

I believe Elon is planning this and that he would not have attempted this without sufficient bullets.

I seriously doubt Elon expected the stock to be where it's at right now.

 

[Irishjugg]

It's not a question of PPA's being inherently bad. It's a question of short term funding and interest rate risk. If Tesla Energy/solarcity sells the post merger PPA contracts they can remove the risk and show GAAP profit (or loss) on each PPA sale.

Solarcity was playing at being the bank and took on interest rate risk that used to make banks fail. Tesla acquires some of these problems from older sales, but needs to not continue adding risk.

The Rives are lucky they are related to the CEO of Tesla. With the announcement of Panasonic running the Buffalo factory, they failed at everything except making themselves affluent.

I don't think that's very fair. They are succeeded in making solar city the number one solar installer in the US by what I understand is a very large margin. That's worth a hell of a lot.

 

[racer26]

As I understand it, this late in the game, the only things that would allow for the Election to be postponed is if one of the candidates dies, or if Obama implements martial law to supersede the constitution.

Could Kaine not take her place as the Democratic nominee by default?

 

[traxila]

I highly suggest that you closely evaluate the platform of the Trump candidacy, along with every other red state out there. In case you haven't noticed where Tesla is legally forbidden to sell and service their cars falls almost perfectly within party lines simply because Teslas are electric cars.

Or if you don't believe facts, you could simply look at TSLA price today versus the rest of the market when the email story broke. Whether you personally understand the impacts of a Trump presidency or not, the market certainly understands it and Tesla (especially with SCTY in tow) will be heavily ravaged by such a presidency. Tesla probably won't be killed by an ultra-right presidency, but Solar City most certainly could. Imagine nationwide laws passed forbidding net metering and the residential solar revolution will die, and die fast and will have to restart from scratch in several years after off-grid is fully viable and cheap.

This is a very, very important item to watch in the near-term and like Brexit, it could still pop out of nowhere.

Wow. Condescend much? I simply said that Trump might not be as bad as you think. Why? Because he is a clown who could change his position in a heartbeat and then argue that he was always of this opinion. He himself does not even know what he would actually do.

And who would be at fault for a Trump Presidency anyway? We need a law that gives us only one President per household. Oligarchies suck.

 

[dha]

Because he is a clown who could change his position in a heartbeat and then argue that he was always of this opinion. He himself does not even know what he would actually do.

And that's precisely why he'll be a catastrophe for the markets and economy. Huge uncertainty = huge risk.

 

[racer26]

How do you not consider a 20% probability of Trump victory significant? If I told you there was a 20% chance of you getting into a car wreck next week, would you drive without insurance? Or at all?

That's just...not how probability works. At all. 1/5 chance is 1/5 chance.

The probability of rolling a 7 on a pair of dice is 17%--worse than Trump's odds at this moment, and that's before this new FBI news has been factored in. Would you go to Las Vegas and bet your TSLA position on a single roll of dice? Would you say "I just don't see how it can be a 7" ??

The difference is, in political elections, an 81% chance for the favourite represents a humongous lead. These sorts of things typically operate in a band between 40-60%.

In order for Trump to become president, he needs to win in all of OH, IA, NC, FL, NV, and PA in addition to his stronghold states. All states which are currently showing Hillary in the lead. There's a small chance Hillary swipes out AZ or GA from under him too. I really can't see him winning all 6 of the influential swing states.

 

[AudubonB]

Moderator Input:

End it, now. The next even slightly close to off-topic political post and all the prior ones are deleted, with anyone having posted more than one of them is really going to rue turning on his computer today.