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Anyone wants to venture on a guess to where the bottom is for this? I guess when most of the shares available from the big institutions are ready for shorters they should run out of ammo and we should hit the bottom. Lately I've always jumped the gun and bought too early. Only to see I could have saved another $10-20 with a bit more patience... Are we seeing $180 again? Being too scared I'd rather buy TSLA than SCTY even though I see the arbitrage would give me even lower prices.
And don't worry I wont mortage the house for this purchase so I know any advise is worth as much as I paid for it
Cobos
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Larry and Sergey are getting a great price to make a minority investment. A couple billion for a small stake would do nicely and reset the stock far higher
I still think this is a distinct possibility by Google or others. Yes, google has a conflict with Uber investment. But, that isnt a show stopper.
I'd rather see private investment than a public offering or bond deal.
It's so odd to me that tesla has come all this way, and now they only need a billion or so to rapidly accelerate their growth plans and that's viewed as a "bad thing"? by WallSt (i.e. overwhelming demand for their products and product pipeline).
Powerful forces at work (IMO) with marketshare to protect.. upsetting BigOil, Auto Mfgs, Utilities, Aerospace.
I still think this is a distinct possibility by Google or others. Yes, google has a conflict with Uber investment. But, that isnt a show stopper.
I'd rather see private investment than a public offering or bond deal.
It's so odd to me that tesla has come all this way, and now they only need a billion or so to rapidly accelerate their growth plans and that's viewed as a "bad thing"? by WallSt (i.e. overwhelming demand for their products and product pipeline).
Powerful forces at work (IMO) with marketshare to protect.. upsetting BigOil, Auto Mfgs, Utilities, Aerospace.
Hard to tell. Considering that this drop came after the best delivery numbers ever, on no negative news, it can turn around tomorrow. But as January demonstrated, the market can be extremely irrational.
I would buy before October 28th, though. I think it's exceedingly likely the Tesla/Solar City announcement will outline a very compelling argument for the merger, eliminating the arbitage and probably giving TSLA a nice bump. Then a few days later we should have the merger vote, removing the uncertainty. Then we get the earnings, with GAAP profitability and positive cash flow.
There are a lot of positives lined up, but probably nothing major before the 28th.
My thoughts exactly. We have legacy threatened parties shorting the stock in order to make the cap raise as expensive as possible for Tesla. Short SCTY and TSLA both and try and scuttle the merger. Time for Elon to think outside of the box.
Also, most large multi-million dollar equipment purchases come with vendor financing. Can't Tesla purchase the equipment for the M3 line and finance it with the supplier? SCTY just sold two rounds of PPA to a third party. Anyone track what it absolutely required in terms of loan refinancings in the next quarter?
Local bottom is 193. If it drops below that, 180.Anyone wants to venture on a guess to where the bottom is for this? I guess when most of the shares available from the big institutions are ready for shorters they should run out of ammo and we should hit the bottom. Lately I've always jumped the gun and bought too early. Only to see I could have saved another $10-20 with a bit more patience... Are we seeing $180 again? Being too scared I'd rather buy TSLA than SCTY even though I see the arbitrage would give me even lower prices.
And don't worry I wont mortage the house for this purchase so I know any advise is worth as much as I paid for it
Cobos
dandurston
Member
I agree with this math, but wonder if TE is giving big discounts to large projects. As I recall, you can only order so many Powerpacks on the site and then you need to contact them for a quote. I wouldn't be surprised if TE is inking these big projects at ~$350/kWh. Still, that's a good and growing margin.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
CyberDutchie
Active Member
No, an internal memo is internal only. I think it is pretty safe to assume that whomever leaked the memo has been fired.
Back in the beginning of Q3, Elon and Jason didn't know for sure if Tesla could pull off profitability in Q3 because of the unknowns of executing over time. They could make that call much more confidently near quarter's end, however.
Can you clarify this? It sounds you're saying: (10 MWh quoted price) = 1.075 * (TE 5MWh price) which makes it sound like TE is greatly overpriced since you would expect a 10 MWh system to cost roughly 2x a 5 MWh system, and instead it's only 1.075x.
Are the MWh numbers reversed?
I see two key pricing points.
First is designed to win a contract from competitors. This price point is in effect if total demand is approximately equal to the supply. So Tesla does not have any incentive to go lower than this point until they scaled production way above the demand. If competitors charge $480/kWh and have 15% margin, all Tesla needs to do to underbid is to charge $445/kWh, their current "list" price. At 10% discount to the list price ($400kWh) they are guaranteed to get the project because it is below the cost of competitors.
The second pricing point would be designed to GROW demand to much higher level, but it makes sense only if first phase of GF significantly exceeds current demand, which is not 100% clear at this point. There might be a point in future when we get to that point, but we are not there yet. Of course if Texas Oncor wants to come in and buy a year worth of the GF output (say 15GWh early in 1H 2018), and pay upfront, they might get the price level you've mentioned - $350/kWh. Otherwise I don't see this happening for some time.
Any way you look at this, Tesla is in enviable position to have huge flexibility in TE pricing. If they play it right they are going to rack in very sizable profits in near future. And so far, there is no indication that they are not capable to play it right. Remember, initially Elon tweeted that utility PowerPack price will be $250/kWh, but then the official pricing came up initially at $470/kWh, and then dropped to $445/kWh. They clearly made shrewd calculation of what is the price at which they win projects (first pricing point). If this price allows for 45% - 50% gross margin, they will take it - why leave money on the table? Once again, any way you look at it, they are in the driver seat.
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One word of caution on the cost of TE. Although we know the pack cost on the cars is below $190. But the cells are all imported from Panasonic. Starting Q4 this year, the cell and pack would all be coming from the GF. So it additional to the raw material costs, it will bear the full depreciation of the GF. I forgot how much CapEx is on GF now but I think it would be over 800M by the end of year and maybe 1.2B up till 1H 2017. Assuming they would sell 500M worth of TE in 1H 2017, that's about 1.25 GWh with $400/kWh of selling price. If assume depreciation of that 1.2B asset is over 10 years like Tesla does with most other asset. That would make additional cost of $200/kWh, this is just from depreciation of GF, not including labor, raw material etc. So before we see tremendous ramp up of TE, I think a 25% premium cost over battery pack in cars is way underestimating it. I think this is also why they said "even early phase, TE had positive margin" in Q1 ER.
But for the record, I may doing this depreciation wrong too.
But for the record, I may doing this depreciation wrong too.
Thanks, I did the smart thing now I believe and set up a good until cancelled order for stock at 180.5 so if it does get a big fall I can grab it and if not then I will be happy with the stock I've got.
Cobos
I think you are getting in the weeds. Elon and JB are on the record indicating that just due to economies of scale they are projecting a minimum 30% reduction in cost. There will be additional reduction due to improved chemistry. Cost includes depreciation. There is no reason to doubt this long standing projection that Elon and JB re-iterated many times.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Something's going on with the TSLA patient... showing a pulse... signs of life hopefully!
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