Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Yggdrasill]

but my question was... if we were to expect 100s of MWhs of deliveries in Q1... then shouldn't we start seeing headlines describing these orders pretty soon?

We don't see headlines for every car purchased - why would we see headlines for every Tesla Energy sale? We are seeing *some* headlines, which is great. It indicates that the sales force at Tesla is at work.

so my questions to you are: how long do you think it would take to produce and deliver 1GWh after an order was placed?... and if that time is 3 to 6 months after the order was placed... then those Q1 delivery expectations would need to be fills of orders starting today, yes/no?

I don't think Tesla will build to order. The Powerpacks and Powerwalls are all identical, so no adjustments for each order is necessary. Tesla will produce all they can, ship them globally based on indicated demand, and then when they get an order, they will show up within 1 week to 2 months with the equipment and do the installation in a few hours to a few weeks, based on the size of the installation.

 

[pGo]

Remember that the institutions are not selling. As Guy Adami says...."who are the incremental sellers?" The answer is retail holders that get spooked easily. Expect good news to hit real soon.

Well, how do you know institutions are not selling?

 

[myusername]

looks to me like there's a quick trade opportunity coming up to flip calls... should bounce off 198 with an oversold RSI. doesn't normally trade like this on friday's though.

 

[EinSV]

My view is that the guidance is of limited value. Tesla will ramp up as fast as possible.

The question I ask myself is : Can Tesla ramp up to 10+ GWh per year at the Gigafactory by Q2 2017? And I think they can, so they will likely do so.

Fair enough. The way I look at it is that based on all the information I have seen so far, the sort of ramp you project makes sense and seems likely. But especially since these are new products that Tesla has not produced at volume before, Tesla may be aware of some production or other hurdle that could make the ramp take longer than I would expect. I tend to doubt there are any barriers like that but don't know that for sure. That is why for me personally some form of guidance is important in this case.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Well, how do you know institutions are not selling?

You would find out. The SP would tank.

 

[myusername]

Well, how do you know institutions are not selling?

we know GS just sold.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

we know GS just sold.

Downgrading is different than selling.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

When everyone (retail) takes a deep breath and relaxes, the stock will turn green. Too many in this stock that obviously can't afford to lose a little bit of $. They should be gone soon.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Downgrading is different than selling.

And in fact there's been some speculation that GS is buying into this downgrade. I'm not saying I necessarily believe that but it's out there and it wouldn't necessarily surprise me either.

 

[pGo]

You would find out. The SP would tank.

We were at 220s, and after beating average TMC which is always on the high side, we are down below before the news, I don't believe it's shorts doing this. What are longs waiting for?

 

[pGo]

When everyone (retail) takes a deep breath and relaxes, the stock will turn green. Too many in this stock that obviously can't afford to lose a little bit of $. They should be gone soon.

Weak longs? I have heard that many times here. Also heard about last chance to get on board so many times.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Contrary to EM stating they, TSLA, have solved a major problem when he announced TE this is not virgin territory.
43 Battery Storage Companies To Watch

You are missing the essence: TE is a price leader, even with 45-50% gross margin BEFORE the GF cuts their costs further.

The reason they are not the volume leader is that they are production constrained at the moment. This is about to change - big way.

 

[Vitold]

Based on what exactly? Never mind that I just asked the question of a poster who clearly expressed confusion as to that action. Saying it's 'safe to assume' is like saying 'it's a sure bet' as the horse 1-9 favorite horse breaks a leg halfway down the home stretch. So again, based on exactly what can we assume he did it on purpose? [...]

I think EM is a mart guy and he likely expected for the note to become public knowledge. Also, the way it was written I got a sense he was writing to more than just Tesla Employees.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

We were at 220s, and after beating average TMC which is always on the high side, we are down below before the news, I don't believe it's shorts doing this. What are longs waiting for?

Most longs have a comfortable sized position and have no need to add at this juncture. They are not going to sell what they have. So we need a new catalyst. Simple as that. I see the minority stake theory coming to fruition. Notice that Apple and Google and a whole host of others didn't bother to bid for aTwitter. Silicon Valley is rooting for Tesla and won't let it fail imho. The Tim Cooks of the world will get their slice of Tesla whether we TMC group like it or not. They are coming.....

 

[madodel]

Upcoming competition is vaporware so far.

Creative destruction may have a huge negative impact on the established
Auto manufacturers , hampering their ability to compete. This will be
An amusing spectacle .

Yeah but Fisker is going to build that Tesla killer! ;-)

 

[Vitold]

Downgrading is different than selling.

GS sold half of their shares. Even after the sale they are one of the largest shareholders still.

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 06/30/2016 1,416,120 (1,440,149) (50.42) 284,640

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Institutional Ownership & Holdings

 

[MitchJi]

Well if nobody else is going to react to this, then I will: Wow!

Can this kind of increase in pack energy density really be only due to the chagne in form factor?

I bet that the cost drop will be similar. Elon said that nobody else has even announced, what Tesla has, and price is the biggest issue.

 

[Tslynk67]

When everyone (retail) takes a deep breath and relaxes, the stock will turn green. Too many in this stock that obviously can't afford to lose a little bit of $. They should be gone soon.

If you don't want to lose, don't sell, simple - well for LONGS at least

 

[vgrinshpun]

You are missing the essence: TE is a price leader, even with 45-50% gross margin BEFORE the GF cuts their costs further.

The reason they are not the volume leader is that they are production constrained at the moment. This is about to change - big way.

Here is my post about conversation with the representative of one of the companies listed in the article you linked: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1734144/

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I was the most negative troll out there last year. Predicting 10 dollar downdrafts every other day which happened. Since taking a new position (just B4 solar city news) I have had countless opportunities to sell - like yesterday. I don't mind taking a loss when my theory changes. I regularly take 10% losses and move on. I am not worried about Macro or Tesla. We are in a good spot imho. So hence no reason to sell.