Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Quesder]

That is how I am reading it...so buying more SCTY

Ok, I am tempted by you. I am in, but not too much, because I am still worrying that the merger may not go through.

 

[schonelucht]

For anyone who wants to play the arbitrage game : good luck but be prepared for SCTY filing for bankruptcy the day of the vote if there is a negative outcome.

 

[Subhuman]

I understand your point of view and don't wish to argue, especially since I am also long tesla. Plus what's done is done...

I guess the big question for me is how tough will it be for tesla to
access the capital it needs in this environment. If it can get another billion or 2 soon, great things are possible. not sure how easy that will be...

To date Tesla has had no issue raising capital. Can that change in the future, absolutely. However, I don't see current events being that catalyst.

 

[Ulmo]

A James Bond finish for the day. (Close at 200.77.)

 

[AlMc]

Ok, I am tempted by you. I am in, but not too much, because I am still worrying that the merger may not go through.

For anyone who wants to play the arbitrage game : good luck but be prepared for SCTY filing for bankruptcy the day of the vote if there is a negative outcome.

That is certainly a possible outcome...and one needs to be comfortable with the risk/reward with the arbitrage versus Bankruptcy.

 

[aznt1217]

Really interesting trading movement. We're looking at 3x more trade volume. I think the big thing was the article that has been circulating around about cash burn. We're in the whole "the sky is falling" phase. The SpaceX noise didn't help either. We're also looking at an extended US Market weekend also.

Anyway, only saving grace would be this V8.0 blog post that is supposed to go up.

 

[Gerardf]

Elon is self destructing like in his biography ........

Elon selfdestructing ??? OK, these are hectic and interesting times, but come on, this is not the SA forum with all the childish trollers that rule the comments there. Not to mention the even worse authors like MontanaS, Wahlman and Santos. What is next, accusing Elon to have set up a ponzi ? I hope we can keep such crazy talk away from this forum.

IMHO, If you disagree with Tesla speeding up bringing M3 in volume to the market, you should never have been a shareholder at any time. And if you did, you had plenty of time to sell after March 31st.

Out of curiosity. Are / were you a shareholder ?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

To all of the people and paid shills posting negative BS on here, I have a few words for you 草尼妈 that can't be expressed in English. I'll let this clip from one of my favorite movies explain.

 

[TMSE]

Cuidado. Cars leased directly by Tesla do not contribute very much to a given quarter's revenue or gross profits, and are treated the same under GAAP and non-GAAP.

" Leasing through both our captive financing entities and our leasing partner exposes us to residual value risk and will adversely impact our near-term operating results by requiring the deferral of revenues and costs into future periods under lease accounting. In addition, for leases offered directly from our captive financing entities (but not for those offered through our bank partner), we only receive a limited portion of cash for the vehicle price at delivery and will assume customer credit risk." [Directly leased cars are eligible for ABL draws.]
​

Revenue and GM associated with leases through bank leasing partners are adjusted in non-GAAP, but not Tesla direct leases

"We offer a leasing program in the United States, Canada, the UK and Germany. Qualifying customers are permitted to lease a vehicle directly from Tesla for 36 or 48 months. We account for these leasing transactions as operating leases and recognize leasing revenues over the contractual term and record the depreciation of these vehicles to cost of automotive revenues. As of June 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, we had deferred $42.1 million and $25.8 million of lease-related upfront payments which will be recognized on a straight-line basis over the contractual term of the individual leases. Lease revenues are recorded in automotive revenue and were $23.9 million and $40.6 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2016.' [Tesla began the direct leases in the 2nd quarter of 2014 and had 6,180 cars under direct leases at June 30, 2016.]​

Tesla guided direct leases would increase from 8% in Q2 to 15% in Q3. Also, InsideEVS partly attributed the August results to: " Adding to the demand profile for the Model S earlier this quarter was the start of 60 kWh cars. For August, it was a 24 month lease deal on the 60 kWh model ($593 month w/$7,425 down)..."

Thank you! What do you think are the minimum delivery numbers for both non-GAAP and GAAP break even assuming direct leases at 15% in Q3?

 

[Papafox]

RSI Alert: Tesla Motors Now Oversold

A three-day weekend is just what we need for:
* SpaceX to draw some preliminary conclusions and allow the launch failure to take reasonable perspective in light of the company's otherwise brilliant accomplishments
* Word to get into the broader media regarding the favorable InsideEV numbers for August and the increased likelihood of a good Q3
* Investors to digest the fact that Lazard made a math error and called Solar City's debt as being $400 million greater than it was
* Investors to understand that Tesla is now oversold.

If Tesla was an athletic team and I were the coach, I would definitely have called a time out by now. Fortunately, the 3-day weekend is the needed timeout for the emotions to dissipate and the facts to sink in.

Edit: Elon's decision to delay the Autopilot 8.0 posting until later this weekend makes perfect sense, since the effects on SP of that posting will have a more positive effect if offered closer to trading days.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

What an exhilarating day! Change the underwear and move forward warriors!

 

[Rarity]

Thought he did recuse himself from both?

The language in the S-4 says that he recused from the Tesla Board decisions, but does not say that he recused himself from the SolarCity Board decisions. For example...

On July 30, 2016, after careful consideration, the Tesla board of directors (the “Tesla Board”), with Messrs. Elon Musk and Antonio Gracias recusing themselves, approved the Merger Agreement and the issuance of shares of Tesla Common Stock to SolarCity stockholders in connection with the Merger (the “Tesla Share Issuance”) and determined that the Merger Agreement and the transactions contemplated thereby, including the Merger and the Tesla Share Issuance, are fair to, advisable and in the best interests of Tesla and its stockholders. The Tesla Board accordingly recommends that the Tesla stockholders vote “FOR” each of the Tesla Merger and Share Issuance Proposal and the Tesla Adjournment Proposal.

After careful consideration, the Special Committee (the “Special Committee”) of the SolarCity board of directors (the “SolarCity Board”) unanimously determined that the Merger Agreement and the Merger are fair to, advisable and in the best interests of the SolarCity stockholders. On July 29, 2016, at a duly convened meeting of the SolarCity Board to consider the unanimous recommendation of the Special Committee, the SolarCity Board approved the Merger Agreement and determined that the Merger Agreement and the transactions contemplated thereby, including the Merger, are fair to, advisable and in the best interests of SolarCity and its stockholders. The SolarCity Board accordingly recommends that the SolarCity stockholders vote “FOR” each of the SolarCity Merger Proposal and the SolarCity Adjournment Proposal.

Registration Statement on Form S-4

 

[mickificki]

from Elon Musk twitter: "Finishing Autopilot blog postponed to end of weekend"

 

[Lessmog]

RSI Alert: Tesla Motors Now Oversold

A three-day weekend is just what we need for:
* SpaceX to draw some preliminary conclusions and allow the launch failure to take reasonable perspective in light of the company's otherwise brilliant accomplishments
* Word to get into the broader media regarding the favorable InsideEV numbers for August and the increased likelihood of a good Q3
* Investors to digest the fact that Lazard made a math error and called Solar City's debt as being $400 million greater than it was
* Investors to understand that Tesla is now oversold.

If Tesla was an athletic team and I were the coach, I would definitely have called a time out by now. Fortunately, the 3-day weekend is the needed timeout for the emotions to dissipate and the facts to sink in.

Unfortunately, the three day weekend does not start tomorrow. Fortunately for me, that gives me an opportunity to trade some before it.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I'll remind everyone that the document was released ~7am yesterday. I was one of the first people to post about it.

Why did it take "journalists" one day to write about the document and to ignore the most important information it contains? Also, almost every article published today made it sound like it was released yesterday after the close, to make it appear like new information. What gives?

It's truly amazing how more than 80% of the articles published today that mention the $400 million error, didn't mention the fact that the same document spells out in very simple English that the error was discovered and corrected and that both the Independent Group representing Tesla and the Independent Group representing SolarCity took this into account when engaging in negotiations and concluding discussions, and agreeing on the conversion ratio that both parties aggreed on.

 

[joseph7h]

from Elon Musk twitter: "Finishing Autopilot blog postponed to end of weekend"

This means it takes a bit longer to figure out the root cause of spacex explosion today.

 

[sdtslafan]

No buyers? Don't see any buyers at mid of the day.

L-/\\\\\\\\.\//.

Elon selfdestructing ??? OK, these are hectic and interesting times, but come one, this is not the SA forum with all the childish trollers that rule the comments there. Not to mention the even worse authors like MontanaS, Wahlman and Santos. What is next, accusing Elon to have set up a ponzi ? I hope we can keep such crazy talk away from this forum.

IMHO, If you disagree with Tesla speeding up bringing M3 in volume to the market, you should never have been a shareholder at any time. And if you did, you had plenty of time to sell after March 31st.

Out of curiosity. Are / were you a shareholder ?

Yes, I am a shareholder. I own a very large number of shares. What should I do? I think Tesla has made some mistakes but I don't see any other company with even a fraction of its potential. So I'm holding on and hoping I'm wrong. If you ask my wife, I'm often wrong.

 

[joseph7h]

I sold my baba shares and got another 1k tesla shares today. let's see what happens tomorrow.

 

[EinSV]

Insideevs US August numbers are rolling in:

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

On a cheerier note, I would suggest that the insideEV data released today make it highly unlikely that Model S sales have reached a peak (as some have suggested recently) or anything close to it. We appear to be seeing dramatic growth in what is arguably the most mature market (US).

IMO S and X sales will continue to see very substantial growth between now and 2020 as awareness of Tesla and comfort with BEVs grows, Tesla expands into new markets and Model S/X's advantages over the competition continue to expand.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Elon selfdestructing ??? OK, these are hectic and interesting times, but come on, this is not the SA forum with all the childish trollers that rule the comments there. Not to mention the even worse authors like MontanaS, Wahlman and Santos. What is next, accusing Elon to have set up a ponzi ? I hope we can keep such crazy talk away from this forum.

IMHO, If you disagree with Tesla speeding up bringing M3 in volume to the market, you should never have been a shareholder at any time. And if you did, you had plenty of time to sell after March 31st.

Out of curiosity. Are / were you a shareholder ?

Remember, the same idiots with CNBC and SeekingAlpha were saying Tim Cook is a failure as a CEO and is destroying Apple, because he won't kowtow to investor demands.

Remember when Apple investors were passionately complaining about Tim Cook, calling him a bad CEO who had to be replaced because Apple didn't release a larger iPhone when investors wanted Apple to? Those same idiots said no-one would buy a larger iPhone because of the millions of gigantic "white box" smartphones that were available before Apple released a larger phone. In the end, Apple released a larger and more powerful iPhone, that has been a HUGE success.

Moral of the story:
1) Don't listen to pundits.
2) Don't listen to bloggers with a MA in English, who make a career out of following the heard when writing about complicated topics that require a long term view, and the ability to understand slightly complicated topics that aren't widely written about.
3) Too much news today consists of people who regularly regurgitate or paraphrase commentary from other people.
4) It's not hard for a journalist to sound like an expert about a topic if they are a good writer (or have a good editor), know how to paraphrase, and can process complicated and lengthy topics very quickly. The WSJ hires far too many people to do this.

Note: I don't recommend anyone buy either of these ebooks. I'm posting this to prove my point.

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