Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[schonelucht]

Okay interesting. Do you know how close your numbers come to actual sales? I assume not everyone reports their vin numbers.

For the X the correlation is hard too make. Up until now too many assigned VINs didn't get build because they were assigned to a geography that didn't get build or for lower optioned models that got pushed back etc...

For the S, the VIN assignments always overshoot deliveries quite significantly (10-15%). Next time there is a poll to guess future deliveries, check who got it (mostly) right. Those are the guys that are VIN tracking

 

[Fallenone]

Okay interesting. Do you know how close your numbers come to actual sales? I assume not everyone reports their vin numbers.

As long as we have a reasonable sample size, we don't need all VINs reported.

German tank problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[vgrinshpun]

Yep, yesterday afternoon's drop of nearly $3 was a work of fiction. Yesterday morning's drop could be attributed to two factors: concern for the $411 early debt repayment, and some creative short-selling (as evidenced by deep dip followed almost immediately by substantial but only-partial recovery). By mid-day yesterday, TSLA was well on its way to recovering its lost ground. Then, as we entered the really low-volume afternoon trading hours on an already low-volume day (2.1M shares for entire day), TSLA started dropping with no news while broader markets were rising. Translation: short-sellers were taking advantage of the extremely thin trading to push TSLA down and convince traders that the rally of last Thursday had now transitioned into a downtrend. Today, traders shrugged off yesterday afternoon's drop and brought TSLA back to where it should have been. Thus, the near-vertical rise this morning.

The low volume could be related to the wait and see attitude vis-à-vis today's Solar City ER after market close.

 

[MitchJi]

Trying to add some humor. Don't waste your time listening to the video. It's a miracle that he can earn a living.

Marc Faber: Tesla shares are going to $0

Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, is well-known his perennially bearish take on the overall market. But there are also some specific stocks of which the investor known as "Dr. Doom" takes a particularly dim view — and right now, prime among those is Tesla.


"What they produce can be produced by Mercedes, BMW, Toyota, Nissan. Anybody in the world can make it eventually, at much lower cost and probably much more efficiently," Faber said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

"The market for Toyota and these large automobile companies is simply not big enough, but the moment it becomes bigger, they'll move into the field and then Tesla will have a lot of competition."

Faber sees this increased competition causing more than a small dent in the company's business and stock performance.

"I think Tesla is a company that is likely to go to zero eventually," Faber said.

Last week, Bloomberg reported that Mercedes-Benz is entering the electric game in a big way, as it sets to unveil two electric SUVs and two electric sedans under a new line. And in a recent ad, BMW, which makes its own electric cars, tweaked Tesla for making drivers wait around for their vehicles in a recent ad.

Recently, Tesla business development executive Diarmuid O'Connell dismissed the company's competitors as having "delivered little more than appliances," in contrast to Tesla's ground-up method of rethinking how cars are powered and driven, according to Automotive News.

For Faber, the strategy of shorting Tesla is merely a part of his bearish approach to the market. On Monday, he recommended that "if you are an investor with a lot of nerves and you sleep well at night anyway, then you could hedge the portfolio somewhat by selling short some stocks that are overvalued and are likely to go down" — providing Tesla as an example.


Tesla's press office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Boost for Model X demand?
U.S. finds unapproved emissions software in VW Audi engines: Bild am Sonntag

That settlement however would not address about 85,000 larger 3.0 liter Audi, Porsche and VW vehicles that emitted less pollution than 2.0 liter vehicles but were also fitted with illegal emissions-control equipment. Audi and Volkswagen notified U.S. authorities about these vehicles last year. A deal covering the 3.0 liter vehicles may still be months away.

 

[bonaire]

Not sure where you get that number. Exactly three months ago (May 9th) we were at 143000. Since we have yet to see 156000, the number is below 4333/month. You also need to exclude some (smallish) ranges that are clearly inventory and I get around 4200/month, at best. Finally, there was an uptick after the release of the 60kWh model but that seems to have died down by now. Maybe it's just summer blues and we will return to see some growth.



Agrees, a 100kWh battery has the potential to unlock demand. At the same time, more and more people are expected AutoPilot 2.0 any day now and especially current top-of-the-line owners may postpone an upgrade even when the 100 is available. Pure speculation but it is very well possible that the 100kWh basically is done but that Tesla won't release it until AP2 hardware is available as well. I believe such a combo has the potential to equal the effect of the release of AWD + AP1 at the end of 2014 which is basically what lifted the Model S from a 35k/year car to a 50k/year car.

The ones who say it is over 5000/month are those who are not tracking the details. For 2016 May/June/July, the Model S Vin # assignments have always averaged below 1000/week for each of the three months. I don't know what value warning anyone about rates does for those who do keep tight analysis going on these things. All I know is that they just put up 209 Model X Inventory vehicles for sale - that is 209 vehicles that were not made for customers and some customers had to wait a little longer while these inventory units were built and shipped.

 

[esk8mw]

Regarding S VIN assignments...

It seems clear to me that the current rate is around 5k/month. My methodology is simple: check the VIN assignment date on the S tracker spreadsheet and corresponding VIN number (and exclude the outliers/bad data). In my opinion, there's no need to dig through threads to get this info.

As of 7/1, VINs stood at 1500xx.
As of 7/15, VINs stood at 152,6xx.
As of as of 8/2 (no 8/1 data reported), VINs stood at 155,0xx.

Subtract and you get 5,000. Does this necessarily = deliveries? No. You have to exclude loaners and such. But I'd argue July probably didn't have many non-customer cars since they apparently did a decent inventory run in Q2, post-refresh. I guess it's also possible that they skip VINs, but I haven't seen evidence of that.

FWIW, I did this same analysis and came up with about 13,100 VIN assignments in Q2. My hypothesis here is that S production (and therefore VIN assignments) were held up due to X problems on the shared line. As production has improved post-Q2, the VIN assignment rate has also accelerated. This supports my theory that demand was not the problem, production is (or was, actually) the problem.

Note that S deliveries in Q2 were far lower than the VIN assignments at 9,764. These VINs all get built and delivered eventually - usually at the end of the year. If this 5k/month rate keeps up, I think the 50k number for Q3/4 is attainable.

 

[Papafox]

Regarding S VIN assignments...

It seems clear to me that the current rate is around 5k/month. My methodology is simple: check the VIN assignment date on the S tracker spreadsheet and corresponding VIN number (and exclude the outliers/bad data). In my opinion, there's no need to dig through threads to get this info.

As of 7/1, VINs stood at 1500xx.
As of 7/15, VINs stood at 152,6xx.
As of as of 8/2 (no 8/1 data reported), VINs stood at 155,0xx.

Subtract and you get 5,000. Does this necessarily = deliveries? No. You have to exclude loaners and such. But I'd argue July probably didn't have many non-customer cars since they apparently did a decent inventory run in Q2, post-refresh. I guess it's also possible that they skip VINs, but I haven't seen evidence of that.

FWIW, I did this same analysis and came up with about 13,100 VIN assignments in Q2. My hypothesis here is that S production (and therefore VIN assignments) were held up due to X problems on the shared line. As production has improved post-Q2, the VIN assignment rate has also accelerated. This supports my theory that demand was not the problem, production is (or was, actually) the problem.

Note that S deliveries in Q2 were far lower than the VIN assignments at 9,764. These VINs all get built and delivered eventually - usually at the end of the year. If this 5k/month rate keeps up, I think the 50k number for Q3/4 is attainable.

This discussion of VIN assignments between esk8mw, Schonelucht, and others is healthy. Thanks for the efforts. With Elon saying that production is at 2,000vehicles/week by now, a vin # growth of 1700vehicles/week does not make sense unless Elon is lying (not likely here), or there's some type of VIN # that is not being tracked (again, not likely). So, my challenge to the low-end production investors is this: how can you explain the discrepancy between your numbers and the production numbers that Elon has recently given?

 

[bonaire]

Some are only looking at July. The 60S was introduced May 11th, 60X on July 13. There was a small burst or Vin # gap for X on July 3-4 and another during July for S (I don't have my data with me right now). These gaps tend to lie with groups of pre-setup Vin #s for future inventory car production that are weaved into the normal customer line of production.

Going from May through end of July, generally it was an average of under 1000/wk and this weekend, if this thread is still talking about it, I can help lay out the details.

Elon also said there would be 10,000 sales in Germany per year by now.
Elon also said that 2014 would be 35,000 cars (then blamed the plant shutdown and customer vacations for the miss).
Elon also said there was going to be what, 55,000 in 2015....
I don't take him seriously when looking at guidance. Only the run-rate of the factory and details surrounding the factual Vin #s. I still believe they will be short by 10,000 for the year, under 70,000 and won't lower guidance until the Q3 ER hits the presses or do like other years and wait until the new year when sales are posted. Maybe on a Sunday?

If I order an MS right now - it says September Delivery. This doesn't say much for the actual probabilities of being "sold out for Q4" and not yet for Q3, even. GIven the situation I can feel either a plant shutdown coming "for some reason" (I estimate - blame a supplier, that'll do it!) which then can lead to a guidance delta without much market impact. If done in Q3, they can claim 2200/wk guidance delta because that was the promised run-rate near the end of Q3. If done in Q4, 2400/wk delta if they take a few weeks break.

Now, during last week's Q&A call, didn't Musk say he was going to a supplier this past Saturday to "find out what the hell is going on!" It might make a good excuse.

 

[Papafox]

Some are only looking at July. The 60S was introduced May 11th, 60X on July 13. There was a small burst or Vin # gap for X on July 3-4 and another during July for S (I don't have my data with me right now). These gaps tend to lie with groups of pre-setup Vin #s for future inventory car production that are weaved into the normal customer line of production.

Going from May through end of July, generally it was an average of under 1000/wk and this weekend, if this thread is still talking about it, I can help lay out the details.

Elon also said there would be 10,000 sales in Germany per year by now.
Elon also said that 2014 would be 35,000 cars (then blamed the plant shutdown and customer vacations for the miss).
Elon also said there was going to be what, 55,000 in 2015....
I don't take him seriously when looking at guidance. Only the run-rate of the factory and details surrounding the factual Vin #s. I still believe they will be short by 10,000 for the year, under 70,000 and won't lower guidance until the Q3 ER hits the presses.

If I order an MS right now - it says September Delivery. This doesn't say much for the actual probabilities of being "sold out for Q4" and not yet for Q3, even. GIven the situation I can feel either a plant shutdown coming "for some reason" (I estimate - blame a supplier, that'll do it!) which then can lead to a guidance delta without much market impact. If done in Q3, they can claim 2200/wk guidance delta because that was the promised run-rate near the end of Q3. If done in Q4, 2400/wk delta if they take a few weeks break.

I grant you that Elon has been overly optimistic sometimes in guidance, as you have noted, but what we're talking about is stated production at the moment. So, it looks like the way to see who is right is to follow VIN assignments into August for a better look.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Some are only looking at July. The 60S was introduced May 11th, 60X on July 13. There was a small burst or Vin # gap for X on July 3-4 and another during July for S (I don't have my data with me right now). These gaps tend to lie with groups of pre-setup Vin #s for future inventory car production that are weaved into the normal customer line of production.

Going from May through end of July, generally it was an average of under 1000/wk and this weekend, if this thread is still talking about it, I can help lay out the details.

Elon also said there would be 10,000 sales in Germany per year by now.
Elon also said that 2014 would be 35,000 cars (then blamed the plant shutdown and customer vacations for the miss).
Elon also said there was going to be what, 55,000 in 2015....
I don't take him seriously when looking at guidance. Only the run-rate of the factory and details surrounding the factual Vin #s. I still believe they will be short by 10,000 for the year, under 70,000 and won't lower guidance until the Q3 ER hits the presses.

If I order an MS right now - it says September Delivery. This doesn't say much for the actual probabilities of being "sold out for Q4" and not yet for Q3, even. GIven the situation I can feel either a plant shutdown coming "for some reason" (I estimate - blame a supplier, that'll do it!) which then can lead to a guidance delta without much market impact. If done in Q3, they can claim 2200/wk guidance delta because that was the promised run-rate near the end of Q3. If done in Q4, 2400/wk delta if they take a few weeks break.

There is a difference between projections and statements about current (consistent) run rate. The former being off is not a logical predictor of the latter being lied about.

 

[bonaire]

They recently changed Model X delivery estimate from Late September to Late 2016. Something is up - just don't know what yet.

Even thought the MX VIn #s never reached 1000/wk on any consistent basis (usually was 10-11 days between the 1000 level increasing) - they have sloughed off a lot lately. This is the time to "call an audible".

 

[Svetlin]

Does anyone know if SolarCity starts running on Elon time before or after the acquisition?

 

[esk8mw]

Some are only looking at July. The 60S was introduced May 11th, 60X on July 13. There was a small burst or Vin # gap for X on July 3-4 and another during July for S (I don't have my data with me right now). These gaps tend to lie with groups of pre-setup Vin #s for future inventory car production that are weaved into the normal customer line of production.

Going from May through end of July, generally it was an average of under 1000/wk and this weekend, if this thread is still talking about it, I can help lay out the details.

Elon also said there would be 10,000 sales in Germany per year by now.
Elon also said that 2014 would be 35,000 cars (then blamed the plant shutdown and customer vacations for the miss).
Elon also said there was going to be what, 55,000 in 2015....
I don't take him seriously when looking at guidance. Only the run-rate of the factory and details surrounding the factual Vin #s. I still believe they will be short by 10,000 for the year, under 70,000 and won't lower guidance until the Q3 ER hits the presses or do like other years and wait until the new year when sales are posted. Maybe on a Sunday?

If I order an MS right now - it says September Delivery. This doesn't say much for the actual probabilities of being "sold out for Q4" and not yet for Q3, even. GIven the situation I can feel either a plant shutdown coming "for some reason" (I estimate - blame a supplier, that'll do it!) which then can lead to a guidance delta without much market impact. If done in Q3, they can claim 2200/wk guidance delta because that was the promised run-rate near the end of Q3. If done in Q4, 2400/wk delta if they take a few weeks break.

Now, during last week's Q&A call, didn't Musk say he was going to a supplier this past Saturday to "find out what the hell is going on!" It might make a good excuse.

- They hit guidance in 2015. 50-55k.
- May and part of June were plagued by X production problems. This has an effect of S production due to the shared line. Slow S production means slower VIN assignments.
- You reek of desperation when your best case for supporting your sub 70k case is that Elon is lying or that they would shut down the factory for no reason other than to maintain production guidance.

 

[schonelucht]

As of 7/1, VINs stood at 1500xx.
As of 7/15, VINs stood at 152,6xx.
As of as of 8/2 (no 8/1 data reported), VINs stood at 155,0xx.

You can already see from your own data that the second half of July was slower than the first half (2600 vs 2300). That's the post 60 introduction surge that I mentioned earlier. We are now 7 days on from 8/2 and we have not yet seen 156 000, again a rate that is consistent more with the latter half of July, hence why I wrote that effect seems to be dying down. Also, personally I don't like to take first of month to first of month comparisons. Not every month is equally long and the number of weekends may matter as well. I think it is better to just go 4 weeks back. That way it is always comparable.

FWIW, I did this same analysis and came up with about 13,100 VIN assignments in Q2. My hypothesis here is that S production (and therefore VIN assignments) were held up due to X problems on the shared line. As production has improved post-Q2, the VIN assignment rate has also accelerated. This supports my theory that demand was not the problem, production is (or was, actually) the problem.

If you check that spreadsheet back for April then you can easily see that the VIN assignments were NOT held up during the production troubles. Either the same or at most the day after every single order confirmed, it had a VIN assigned. So your theory does not match the facts.

Note that S deliveries in Q2 were far lower than the VIN assignments at 9,764. These VINs all get built and delivered eventually - usually at the end of the year. If this 5k/month rate keeps up, I think the 50k number for Q3/4 is attainable.

Well. The problem here is that VIN assignments are always higher than S deliveries (AND S production too!). All the way back to 2012. Consistently 10-15%. And that delta kept growing through periods of relatively flat Model S deliveries (like the last 6 months), while the wait time barely does. This strongly suggests to me that a significant number of VINs are simply never built for whatever reason.

 

[vgrinshpun]

They recently changed Model X delivery estimate from Late September to Late 2016. Something is up - just don't know what yet.

Even thought the MX VIn #s never reached 1000/wk on any consistent basis (usually was 10-11 days between the 1000 level increasing) - they have sloughed off a lot lately. This is the time to "call an audible".

Nope. Still shows late September. You need to click "NEXT" button next to "Late 2016". The appearing actual ordering page lists "Late September" as earliest available delivery.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

SolarCity Q2 ER this evening?

 

[schonelucht]

This discussion of VIN assignments between esk8mw, Schonelucht, and others is healthy. Thanks for the efforts. With Elon saying that production is at 2,000vehicles/week by now, a vin # growth of 1700vehicles/week does not make sense unless Elon is lying (not likely here), or there's some type of VIN # that is not being tracked (again, not likely). So, my challenge to the low-end production investors is this: how can you explain the discrepancy between your numbers and the production numbers that Elon has recently given?

Honestly I can't fully reconcile Elon statements with the numbers we're reading. But I know that Tesla is very careful in which numbers it releases and you can't extrapolate them at all. For example when they state that they _exit_ the quarter at 2000/week, everyone on here also assumes that they will _enter_ the next quarter at 2000/week. I don't think we can take that for granted. Another example on X production:

On April 4th they wrote

Because production is now on plan...

Then on May 4th they wrote

Continuing to ramp high quality production is the top priority at Tesla right now.

So you'd normally assume that Q1 was challenging for X production but that they had resolved the issue by April 4th and that they were continuing to work from that base all the way up to May 4th. Yet today (after Q2 report) we know what happened was that in April production actually went in a total meltdown and that their second reference of continuing ramp up was actually not based on the exit rate of Q1 but more on the entry rate of Q2 post meltdown which was dramatic.

Such are the nuances of Tesla communication...

 

[MartinAustin]

yes SCTY ER any minute now

 

[30seconds]

The company is going to need to increase X demand from the current order rates later this year. Given the relative size of the premium SUV market vs. premium sedan this should be doable, but my guess is that the early production problems have depressed the current new order rate. It was one thing with the S when Tesla was little known, but very different now that many in their customer base is aware of the company and likely aware of the initial issues with the X.

I think there are a number of ways for the company to increase demand once they are satisfied with production rate/ quality. The easiest would be an aggressive test drive program via email invites, similar to what was done with the S. Lots of other "easy" options like providing test cars for journalists, transport cars for high value events...

Plus the X really hasn't been widely launched ex-US so should be plenty of room to get the X to 40,000 to 50,000+ annually