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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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CALGARYARSENAL
Member
For a unicorn like that we need to see one of the tech monsters take a minority position. I wouldn't be surprised given all the cash on balance sheets.
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Active Member
You can't prove that they don't, at least that is what all my christian friends tell me
Almost spit my drink up when I saw that unicorn, hilarious.
In Norway the S85D got an over the air update today making it go 0-100 (km/h) from previous 5,2 sek down to 4,6! (Non official tests get it down to around 4,0 sek !)
It has now an normal and a sport mode.
Is this something the media can pic up and write something positive about? (I think its awesome)
(english is not my native language)
It has now an normal and a sport mode.
Is this something the media can pic up and write something positive about? (I think its awesome)
(english is not my native language)
Nice first post
Your English is good and your Teslaish even better. Excellent first post with both important info and prescriptive request. Welcome to the world of Tesla...it may sound different, but we can speak the same language.
jhm
Well-Known Member
A LEAP of Blind Faith
Today at $210.60, implied discount stands at 30.74% which is the 14.23 percentile for optimism for the last 12 months. So sentiment is still quite bearish. At this level, the BFPT for 1/15/2016 is $257, and since so many of us are buying LEAPs, the BFPT for 1/20/2017 is $340.
Min BFPT for those two dates are $232 and $308, respectively.
First Quartile, $276 and $360.
Median, $314 and $404.
Third Quartile, $333 and $426.
So today I bought a 2017 LEAP at 280 for $26. This will break even at a share price of $306 in Jan 2017, just below the most bearish sentiment BFPT of $308. So I feel pretty good about the downside risk. At the first quartile this option could net $54 on an investment of $26, a 208% ROI. So let's see how well a little blind faith can LEAP.
Uh, make your own mistakes, not mine.
Today at $210.60, implied discount stands at 30.74% which is the 14.23 percentile for optimism for the last 12 months. So sentiment is still quite bearish. At this level, the BFPT for 1/15/2016 is $257, and since so many of us are buying LEAPs, the BFPT for 1/20/2017 is $340.
Min BFPT for those two dates are $232 and $308, respectively.
First Quartile, $276 and $360.
Median, $314 and $404.
Third Quartile, $333 and $426.
So today I bought a 2017 LEAP at 280 for $26. This will break even at a share price of $306 in Jan 2017, just below the most bearish sentiment BFPT of $308. So I feel pretty good about the downside risk. At the first quartile this option could net $54 on an investment of $26, a 208% ROI. So let's see how well a little blind faith can LEAP.
Uh, make your own mistakes, not mine.
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Gtoffo
Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
I should probably look at bull call spreads too because my exit strategy is to sell the call in the third quartile if it gets up over median. In the fourth quartile I will probably start selling covered calls. There is definitely an upside I'm willing to pass on. That is one of the advantages of the BFPT approach; it tells you when the implied discount is unsustainably too low, too bullish relative to Musk's long-term vision.
Good luck, everyone, making their own mistakes.
well speaking of mistakes, i figure i will share my own -- during the weakness we saw in the past month i bought several different june dated options (some ITM, some OTM), with varying levels of success given timing (e.g. i bought some june options right before the energy storage announcement call to take a bit of a flyer; those went really red for a while and recently got back to up 10%).
anyways, i sold almost all of them yesterday on the thought that we've had a nice run that seemed to be petering out (and in my historical experience it is best to lock in large short term options gains). i haven't redeployed that capital yet (i'm waiting for a drop from these levels between now and the 4/30 announcement), so i'm sure TSLA will now go on a nice run and not turn back.
ah, the joys of TSLA.
surfside
InTheShadows
Active Member
I really struggled with what to do at the close today. I chose to hold my April and May calls, both of which are up about 30% at the close. These were positions I opened this week. My longer term stuff is doing pretty nicely now with stop orders that I keep moving up. I still have about 25% on the sidelines.
My feeling is we have broken out of the down trend and I think we will drift up through the end of the month.
My feeling is we have broken out of the down trend and I think we will drift up through the end of the month.
Count me in 'a lot of people'
Occasional threads from disgruntled customers are also on my 'a must read' list, but these are rare. I also venture out if I see some weird entertaining topics but this is home cul de sac section.
I wonder if the above fine example of the art of moderation in action has anything to do with 'a lot of people' sticking around this section
Back to short-term expectations, I am hoping and wishing for more surprise news.
There seems to be a huge shift in analysts' sentiment regarding Tesla, as evident from Derek's post upthread. Most of them are bullish, as opposed to last year when we had our favorite bullish analysts and the rest were not so bullish.
Not that people here rely too much on analysts for their trading decisions, however, some analysts seem to have the power to move sp and can not be ignored.
The problem may be that most analysts are already bullish so any further bullishness is less likely to be adding to a momentum.
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CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I apologize if its already been discussed, but do you think Tesla's stock may react well if Elon's Space X is able to land that rocket on a barge Monday afternoon? It would be a monumental accomplishment, perhaps giving investors more faith in the man and his other endeavours, particularly TSLA.
My take is that investors (longs) already have a lot of trust in Elon and Tesla team. Tesla's team innovation capabilities are hard to match by other car makers, however other car makers may be better positioned regarding some more traditional business capabilities such as ability to scale output, ability to expand to other markets and they have cash advantages.
If there is any transfer of market perceptions between Space X and Tesla, these perceptions seem to feed into Tesla team capabilities which are already well positioned.
It seems to me that the market might be looking more for some confirmation that Tesla is executing as per projected trajectory and not missing any steps: Model X, Gigafactory, Model 3, etc.
New products along the way, such as 70 and stationary storage, seem to be right tools to keep sales and revenues up.
Agree with Papafox below, sp would likely to go up but the real tests for sp are quarterly reports.
My own view, if they manage to land, I do not really care so much about sp movements :biggrin:, at least not for a month or two
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Yep, this is a controversial topic. I'm in the camp that believes that a successful landing on the barge could likely give a one-day boost to TSLA. Such a feat confirms that Musk is a visionary. Telsa rides up on the coat-tails. Other benefits include more time that Elon can devote to TSLA rather than SpaceX and a likely wealthier Elon (which could come in handy if Tesla ever got into a financial pinch). Some others on this forum don't share the opinion that a successful landing will benefit TSLA.
I am not so sure about a positive effect, but if we had multiple failures at SpaceX, God forbid, the company would start to get into trouble and lose clients after, say, 3 rockets blowing up, that would surely have a negative effect on TSLA. Maybe Elon's capability to execute would be questioned, but more likely people would be concerned he will not have time for Tesla as he is managing a crisis at SpaceX.
Gtoffo
Member
I don't think the analogy works. Steve Jobs didn't spend 50% of his time working/talking about Pixar. He was perceived more as a silent owner of the company. Failure would not have been directly linked to him.
In Elon's case: he is directly involved with Space X and has made many controversial (some may call them "far fetched") predictions/decisions. If Space X fails it would reinforce the perception that he often exaggerates and cannot be trusted.
"Humans on Mars? This guy can't even get people to orbit. He's a fraudster that has built fake companies on the back of the government for personal wealth. He's crazy. His other company has been lying for ages about demand. Short TSLA"
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I think we know what that is......Metal Snake Home Charger coming for real.....
I would file it under the category "Elon's Toys," with little effect on SP. But it may reinforce the idea that they are going hard in the direction of car automation. Also: it might sell for a crazy price and have very nice margins.
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