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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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This touches on some of the stationary and microgrid news.
State of the City: Fremont 'pushes the envelope,' acts like Silicon Valley company - Inside Bay Area

He added the city is also doing its part to help Fremont win the energy prize by upgrading city facilities with energy and water efficient systems and solar installations, and replacing existing street lights with LED lights.

"And I'm happy to report that construction on the first of three planned solar carports at city facilities started this week," Harrison said. "This work is the result of a unique collaboration between 19 different government agencies that banded together to purchase solar as a group."
 
Today I test-drove a 70D in Honolulu! Handling and acceleration were both delightful.

Implication: In Q1, Tesla was so sure they'd make delivery guidance that they had time to start producing 70Ds and ship them to sales and service centers. I am more confident in Q1 production numbers because I see evidence of filling up the pipeline.

Did you mean to say that you are more confident in Q2 production numbers?
 
Yes, I am more confident too. Now we know why Tesla's finished goods inventory increased so much. Not only did they exceed Q1 guidance, but they were are to produce additional P85D's / 70D's, etc to have almost immediate availability after their press release for test drives. I went to a Double Black Diamond Tour event and they must have had 12-15 S85s and P85Ds available to drive. Not like end of previous quarters where they sold every last vehicle.
 
Yesterday I intentionally let this thread ramble on about the 70D announcement—it was, after all, the big news of the day and clearly drove the stock price.

Today, not so much. There's a lot of discussion about the 70D over here: Tesla cuts 60kWh Model S, entry-level Model S is now 70D.

Let's keep it there unless it's about the stock price in the short term. Or find another thread suitable for your idea (long-term? Q1 earnings?).

Thanks,
Robert

As this thread gets more and more popular, folks like me end up not having the time to keep up with this thread AND the rest of the forum. This thread is getting too huge, and the user experience is starting to get pretty bad with endless pages. Ideas anyone?
 
As this thread gets more and more popular, folks like me end up not having the time to keep up with this thread AND the rest of the forum. This thread is getting too huge, and the user experience is starting to get pretty bad with endless pages. Ideas anyone?

Just wait until December, then it really will be endless pages. We all have to make the tough decisions in life. You'll have to pick either this thread or the rest of the forum or quit your day job.
 
Originally posted by Papafox,
Today I test-drove a 70D in Honolulu! Handling and acceleration were both delightful.


Implication: In Q1, Tesla was so sure they'd make delivery guidance that they had time to start producing 70Ds and ship them to sales and service centers. I am more confident in Q1 production numbers because I see evidence of filling up the pipeline.

Did you mean to say that you are more confident in Q2 production numbers?

My prediction related to Q1 production with the point being that since Tesla exceeded deliveries and also managed to build what appears to be a good number of cars for stores and service centers in the quarter as well, the production number for Q1 should exceed expectations just like the company bagged its delivery target.

As far as Q2, the resupplying of cars to stores and service center sales teams in Q1 puts Q2 delivery guidance in reasonable reach for the company. In Q2, Tesla can concentrate on getting cars to new owners instead of putting much effort into resupplying cars at stores and service centers. I got worried in Q3 of last year when I saw the deliveries exceeding production, but now in Q1 we shall see the reverse situation. Should we ever experience a weak quarter in the future, Tesla could reduce inventory at stores and service centers once again to buffer the results, but I hope that is a thing of the past.
 
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Moderator's Note

I've created a new thread in the Investor Discussions for our continued musings on the 70D: S70D investor implications

Fifteen posts from this thread have pre-populated the first page.:biggrin:

- - - Updated - - -

As this thread gets more and more popular, folks like me end up not having the time to keep up with this thread AND the rest of the forum. This thread is getting too huge, and the user experience is starting to get pretty bad with endless pages. Ideas anyone?
There are a lot of people who read (almost) only threads here in the Investor Discussion section. It's an interesting little cul-de-sac of TMC. This is always a very fast-moving thread, but its short-term focus means that trying to read old posts is usually not worth your time, any more than reading last week's newspaper. Substantive analysis about the company and factors affecting its price ought ​to be in one of the slower-moving threads.
 
I've created a new thread in the Investor Discussions for our continued musings on the 70D: S70D investor implications

Fifteen posts from this thread have pre-populated the first page.:biggrin:

- - - Updated - - -


There are a lot of people who read (almost) only threads here in the Investor Discussion section. It's an interesting little cul-de-sac of TMC. This is always a very fast-moving thread, but its short-term focus means that trying to read old posts is usually not worth your time, any more than reading last week's newspaper. Substantive analysis about the company and factors affecting its price ought ​to be in one of the slower-moving threads.

On high volatility days when I come here and there are 6 pages of posts, I read the most current two pages and usually skip the rest. Half the time those two pages will have quotes in them from the previous pages that you missed so you get a general idea of the discussion. Besides if you are doing really short term trades then those older pages are just history and likely way outdated by time you get to them.

When someone writes a dissertation I usually skim over it for points to read in detail unless it is from a member whom I personally view as highly regarded. Then I will start off reading the entire post. If it starts sounding like Charlie Browns teacher then I resort to the skimming method. (Sorry posters I highly regard).

Just my method of keeping up.
 
On high volatility days when I come here and there are 6 pages of posts, I read the most current two pages and usually skip the rest. Half the time those two pages will have quotes in them from the previous pages that you missed so you get a general idea of the discussion. Besides if you are doing really short term trades then those older pages are just history and likely way outdated by time you get to them.

When someone writes a dissertation I usually skim over it for points to read in detail unless it is from a member whom I personally view as highly regarded. Then I will start off reading the entire post. If it starts sounding like Charlie Browns teacher then I resort to the skimming method. (Sorry posters I highly regard).

Just my method of keeping up.

Ha! I have done the same thing. Too much to keep on top of sometimes.
 
So the 52-week low was set last May 9th at $177.22 and the 52-week high was achieved last September 4th at $291.42. My completely made up technical analysis says that since the recent low was March 27th at $181.40 we should see $295.60 on July 22nd. In any event my point being that $300 really isn't all that far away and entirely possible with strong delivery numbers and improving financial results. I could see high $200s with the Model X tipping us over the $300 mark if deliveries seem to be going smoothly in Q4. We'll have to wait for next year, however, if people start reporting delivery delays on the Model X.
 
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