Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[maoing]

Cheerleader? :biggrin: You remind me to back search a post a month ago.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...Movements-2015?p=896216&viewfull=1#post896216

Now the chasing has officially begun, with every passing day your portfolio doesn't own Tesla, you are naked, lonely, and unsure if Tesla will ever visit $210s again, or will it shoot to $240s after earnings, ................is a $5-$10 swing really worth what's waiting for you in the Spring if you go in now? If you are a newbie whose been lurking here, this was what I meant when I stated "what's a $5 swing" when the stock was at $200.. Now it's become a $15 swing..easy decision, for me. What are you going to do? let us know...

It's too much amusing to see this cheerleader called strong buy when closing @ 218 on 02/03/15, but himself sold @ 210 to take $4 profit on 02/26/15.

+1

Cool heads prevail in investment - not cheerleaders.

 

[Maknyuzz]

Instagram

Nanofactory, not Giga...
Kimbal's instgram has some pics of GF progress

 

[NigelM]

Dual chargers are an option with a low take rate and very little necessity for most customers. Many of the people who get them just do it because they want to add every option, or because they think it will make supercharging faster or were told that by an inaccurate employee or something (it won't). It's also tough to add a power source high enough amperage to take advantage of the dual chargers - you need a 100A panel at home, and people just don't usually have that much amperage to spare.

If it's still available as a retrofit, then those people who really need it can get it. But there's very few who do.

That said I'm not sure how much money or efficiency this will save, or how harmful it was having that option available, but it was certainly one of the more superfluous options.

Let's try not to go off topic, but I have to correct this.

It's not tough or complicated for most people to add enough capacity for a 100A line to an HPWC, it might be regarded as expensive if you have to up your service; and I think you mean a 100A breaker, there's very few homes out there with less than a 100A panel.

Dual chargers might be called superfluous if you only charge overnight or at Superchargers; if you ever drive around all day and want to go out again soon after arriving home, a 100A breaker and dual chargers can become important pretty quickly. Also the HPWC destination program can be much more effectively utilized if you have dual chargers.

[/Off_Topic]

 

[sundaymorning]

I think the idea is that after a few pages discussing the same item over and over, just think twice about "me too" posts and restating the same points. Because we have other things to discuss. And that would apply to many topics. I do appreciate the posts calling our attention to trouble factors; after all, it's my money at stake here...

...As long as I have the mic here, I wanted to share my amusement over that remark about Tesla being a "risky business". Really? I'm taking a chance when I invest in this company? I'm going to have to reread the fine print! The guy who wrote that in his article should pull his money out and limit his investments to only risk-free instruments. (I'm told that sarcasm doesn't convey well in print...that was a little bit, right there. BTW the gap between the joke teller and the guy who didn't get it is called "sarchasm").

Instagram

Nanofactory, not Giga...
Kimbal's instgram has some pics of GF progress

The difference between playing short vs long is huge. My position in Tesla since $30 and having bought a ton of options gave me of plenty of wiggle room. Despite this, I still don't gamble short term. I've locked in more money then I can imagine since 2013.. And in 2014 my options gained 50-70%, despite the drop from Nov-present.. you know why? Bc my options are deep in the money, and were all 2016s, rolling them out to 2017 for $1k a piece is hardly a risk to me. Did I lose? 50-70% gain for 2014, is hardly a lose my friend. But way down from 2013 when gains in the 1,000%s were my norm. I can't tell bears how to make money, I tell them to roll the dice and gamble... unless we're up way too high. Timing is difficult, so I trade the side that is more apparent, in fear of getting left behind. Despite making a killing on this stock, I'm still not a Teslanaire, and if I was one, I wouldn't be asking others to "tell me something that'll make me money."

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Cheerleader? :biggrin: You remind me to back search a post a month ago.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...Movements-2015?p=896216&viewfull=1#post896216



It's too much amusing to see this cheerleader called strong buy when closing @ 218 on 02/03/15, but himself sold @ 210 to take $4 profit on 02/26/15.

2016 options rolled out to 2017, got lucky on the drop and made $4 per share. Hardly anything to brag about was the point of that thread. But like the 10k, any of my words can be twisted and taken out of context. And you've completely missed both points of those two threads, but sure quote me weeks after earnings when rumors and higher than expected misses completely changed the landscape. My position is still long, now 2017 instead of 2016...

PS I will continue to be a Tesla cheerleader until the stock is overvalued, there's no shame in admitting that here.

 

[jhm]

Instagram

Nanofactory, not Giga...
Kimbal's instgram has some pics of GF progress

This is cute. I'm sure there must be a few fans around here who would want their very own nanofactory. You might post it to the Gigafactory thread. Those guys will analyze the whole thing.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

Sheesh, I head off for a few hours and look at the mess that was created for @jhm to clean up, putting him in a particularly awkward position of having to moderate messages aimed at him. Not nice. And good job, James.

Simple posting guideline: if you are talking about another member, you're a short step away from crossing the line. Talk about what is posted, not who is posting it. If I say something illogical or ill-informed, then reply by correcting my logic or bringing facts against my case—please, because that is how civil and informed discourse can shed light. Impugning someone's character or motives harms my opinion of you far more than it changes my view of the person you're bad-mouthing.

 

[Cosmacelf]

FWIW, InsideEVs has been pretty much dead on with its Tesla delivery estimates in the past. I have no reason to believe they wouldn't be accurate again in this quarter.

 

[sundaymorning]

I found this video going around on the Chinese forums about a modified self driving Model S with steering wheels capable of moving from driver side to passenger side, allowing passenger seats to turn 180 degrees to watch a full screen TV in the back seat. Its unclear which manufacture modified this Model S but the technology in it is pretty impressive. The video is about 3 minutes.

基于特斯拉Model S Rinspeed XchangE 概念车—在线播放—优酷网，视频高清在线观看

 

[ecarfan]

I can't get that video to load but assume it is showing the Rinspeed-modified Model S. It has been posted about before on TMC. I'm not convinced that the interior mods shown in that video are real and functional.

This video seems off topic for the Short Term Price Movements thread.

 

[hirox]

Steve jurvetson bought $776,113 worth of tesla stock, is it common for insiders buying stock?

http://www.insidertradingwire.com/s...f-tsla-tesla-motors-inc-form4-insidertrading/

 

[Matias]

I think this is rather balanced article about Tesla

As Tesla Gears Up for SUV, Investors Ask Where the Profits Are - Bloomberg Business

At the moment I don't have any position in Tsla, but have ordered the S85D.

In the long run (10 years horizon) I believe in Tesla. But in the shorter run (2 years) I think stock is overvalued. I'm planning to buy some 2017 puts once I manage to open account with broker, who sells them. My current broker does not sell U.S. options. If everything goes perfectly (one can always dream :wink I first get some profit from 2017 puts and use that money to buy Tsla shares. I'm placing small bet, some 2% of my investements.

 

[Johan]

I think this is rather balanced article about Tesla

As Tesla Gears Up for SUV, Investors Ask Where the Profits Are - Bloomberg Business

At the moment I don't have any position in Tsla, but have ordered the S85D.

In the long run (10 years horizon) I believe in Tesla. But in the shorter run (2 years) I think stock is overvalued. I'm planning to buy some 2017 puts once I manage to open account with broker, who sells them. My current broker does not sell U.S. options. If everything goes perfectly (one can always dream :wink I first get some profit from 2017 puts and use that money to buy Tsla shares. I'm placing small bet, some 2% of my investements.

You are of course entitled to your own views regarding stock price, and this discussion is not really related to short-term since you're talking about 2017, but it's a good discussion to have anyway. My view is be careful with puts that far out. You're paying a lot of time value to take the position that Tesla stock will be lower in two years than it is today. OK, depending on the strike I know the put can still be worth money even if TSLA trades flat for two years (i.e. the stock price isn't lower) but you'll only lose time value as you get closer to expiry. A better trade would be to sell a call, but that requires either shares or cash/margin to cover so ties up at lot of capital. Think of all the things that might happen between today and 2017 with regards to growth, new products to market and in development, and in the auto business as a whole (we might be a lot closer to breaking through the threshold of making EVs mainstream). There are going to be a lot of people wanting to take up the opposite side of that trade, I'm one of them...

 

[Matias]

You are of course entitled to your own views regarding stock price, and this discussion is not really related to short-term since you're talking about 2017, but it's a good discussion to have anyway. My view is be careful with puts that far out. You're paying a lot of time value to take the position that Tesla stock will be lower in two years than it is today. OK, depending on the strike I know the put can still be worth money even if TSLA trades flat for two years (i.e. the stock price isn't lower) but you'll only lose time value as you get closer to expiry. A better trade would be to sell a call, but that requires either shares or cash/margin to cover so ties up at lot of capital. Think of all the things that might happen between today and 2017 with regards to growth, new products to market and in development, and in the auto business as a whole (we might be a lot closer to breaking through the threshold of making EVs mainstream). There are going to be a lot of people wanting to take up the opposite side of that trade, I'm one of them...

You are absolutely correct. But the reason, I'm thinking about buying 2017 puts is that it is that timeframe in which I think market notices, that Tsla is overvalued, not necessarily before that.

In the shorter run price can go up or down. Of course I don’t know anything. Just guessing.

 

[Johan]

You are absolutely correct. But the reason, I'm thinking about buying 2017 puts is that it is that timeframe in which I think market notices, that Tsla is overvalued, not necessarily before that.

In the shorter run price can go up or down. Of course I don’t know anything. Just guessing.

But by byuing a 2017 put now you are paying time value for something that you think won't take place until 2017. That makes no sense. If that's your theory you should wait until at least a year from now, say end of 2016 and as you see the signs that the market is "starting to notice that TSLA is overvalued" you go in and get your puts.

 

[Matias]

But by byuing a 2017 put now you are paying time value for something that you think won't take place until 2017. That makes no sense. If that's your theory you should wait until at least a year from now, say end of 2016 and as you see the signs that the market is "starting to notice that TSLA is overvalued" you go in and get your puts.

You are correct again, but the problem is, that I don’t know, when price starts to drop, say,to 150 level. It can happen in three months or two years (or not at all of course). That’s why I have to buy now. Of course, if I knew when price drops, I would be a very rich man :biggrin:

 

[Johan]

You are correct again, but the problem is, that I don’t know, when price starts to drop, say,to 150 level. It can happen in three months or two years (or not at all of course). That’s why I have to buy now. Of course, if I knew when price drops, I would be a very rich man :biggrin:

... IF the price drops. What is it in particular you think that the sum of all investors will come to learn or understand in the next few years that would change the valuation? Mind you all this while Tesla likely comes to market with Model 3, achieves even better margins and keeps growing at a very high rate.

 

[Matias]

High growth rate is already baked in in tsla price. See this

Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Page 240

I think 30% ROI in high risk stock is reasonable. So one could say, that tsla's current price discounts Tesla's Apple like market cap 10 years from now. That requires perfect execution ten years in a row.

Model X, gigafactory, model 3 and home energy storage are already discounted to current price.

I don't believe, that everything goes perfectly 10 years in a row.

Newer the less, I think Tesla has great future. But stock price is too high at the moment. Or I might be wrong. Interesting subject. Anyway, I will place small bet.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

High growth rate is already baked in in tsla price. See this

Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Page 240

I think 30% ROI in high risk stock is reasonable. So one could say, that tsla's current price discounts Tesla's Apple like market cap 10 years from now. That requires perfect execution ten years in a row.

Model X, gigafactory, model 3 and home energy storage are already discounted to current price.

I don't believe, that everything goes perfectly 10 years in a row.

Newer the less, I think Tesla has great future. But stock price is too high at the moment. Or I might be wrong. Interesting subject. Anyway, I will place small bet.

Feel free to bet, but you're making an odd and remarkably poor choice.

Once you've owned one for a while you will realize the error of your ways--that's why so many Tesla owners become long-term TSLA investors as well....

I don't have either the time or inclination to list the full number of "game-changers" that Elon and his team are creating, but to just focus on TSLA:

1. First "real car" and overwhelmingly effective BEV (when compared to ICE predecessors).
2. First and only high-speed charging network (and it's at no-cost to the user!).
3. Commercial and residential energy storage--an entirely new industry.
4. First high-volume Gigafactory in construction, with high-percentage cost decrease.
5. First vehicles to ever receive constant OTA upgrades, at no cost.
6. "Best car we've ever tested..." according to the non-profit, accepts NO advertising, Consumer Reports.

and many more . . . .

Making a bet suggesting that TSLA's value will lower in the years ahead is pure folly, but feel free to waste your money if you must.

 

[jhm]

Thank you for this reply. After a night sleep and your post, it is clear that I did just that wat I shouldn't have done : reading too much in your words. It was also out of line to tie that with your new mod status, especially because you are doing an excellent job keeping on track of everything and making the forum a better place. My sincere apologies, I will try to be more level headed in the future and take second look at such comments before hitting the publish button.

Edit : I'd invite any of the mods to move my earlier post in question to snippiness where it belongs. Thanks.

Thanks for your confidence in me as a moderator. I personally think it's fine to leave the posts as they are because they point to how we can work through these things. If you want to delete, that is fine, but I feel no need to move them.
I look forward to lively, insightful and fun discussion in the days and years to come. All the best, James

- - - Updated - - -

I think this is rather balanced article about Tesla

As Tesla Gears Up for SUV, Investors Ask Where the Profits Are - Bloomberg Business

At the moment I don't have any position in Tsla, but have ordered the S85D.

In the long run (10 years horizon) I believe in Tesla. But in the shorter run (2 years) I think stock is overvalued. I'm planning to buy some 2017 puts once I manage to open account with broker, who sells them. My current broker does not sell U.S. options. If everything goes perfectly (one can always dream :wink I first get some profit from 2017 puts and use that money to buy Tsla shares. I'm placing small bet, some 2% of my investements.

I too think that Tesla best days are ahead of it, but it is important for the stock price not to get too far ahead of the company. Real gains will be made as Tesla advances as an enterprise.

Not to go too far down the path of trading strategy, but over the next two years do you see TSLA necessarily declining or just trading sideways? If the later, you may consider a covered call position. This enables you to hold a core stock position while earning income on writing calls. If indeed the stock trades sideways, the calls can expire worthless (depending on strike) and you get to keep the cash and the stock. This will likely be my strategy the next time the stock reaches a new all time high.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

I've cleaned up this thread, moving posts to snippiness

Some of these posts weren't snippy but quoted the snippy posts or was part of that thread, so I apologize for the reasonable posts that got swept up in the move.

On a different note, please remember that this Short-Term thread is not the only thread on the forum. Please consider whether your post is better made elsewhere, e.g. Trading Strategies, Long-Term, or a subject-specific thread like Competing BEVs.