Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[uselesslogin]

You cant just walk away from Multi-year agreement, but yes it may somehow be good but i cant think of how

Well yeah, that makes more sense. I didn't understand it was a multi-year agreement being slowed down.

You were right on China but that e-Tron announcement was a huge let down. I was honestly hoping you were right on that being something special because I really just want to see more EVs than anything else.

 

[bonaire]

I think that you guys should pull down the prior few posts. At a minimum, it is almost (close-to) insider information. If wrong, totally libel. If right, well, trade-worthy info.

 

[FANGO]

Motor Trend asked if the Audi R8 e-tron will be available in the USA, answer: nope
The e-tron will be build only "upon customer request" and "in supreme hand-built quality.", so no big production series planned at all

You know where else it won't be available? Anywhere. Audi is completely full of it. They are the world leader in electric vehicle press releases. They've been talking about this car for like 7 years and have nothing to show for it. They should be ignored wholesale. This is not news, this is regurgitated 7 year old ******** which never had any basis in reality to begin with.

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... Because as we all know everyone dreams of a bespoke hand-built quality car. C'mon Audi... How much? $300k?

Right, how much Audi? Why don't you give us a price for the car you've been talking about for 7 years? Oh wait, because you're not actually going to sell it and you're just wasting everyone's time? Exxxxxactly.

Betcha a month from now they say they're canceling the project because they haven't gotten any orders. Then a year from now they say the project is on again. Ad infinitum.

 

[HansWurst]

I had the opportunity to speak to a friend working for big automotive supplier at Car Symposium in Bochum...

I was there too!

You cant just walk away from Multi-year agreement, but yes it may somehow be good but i cant think of how

There is always a way to spin such a thing positively. For example a new supplier steps in, providing the part at a cheaper price which optimises total costs, but I agree that this is rather unlikely.

 

[eepic]

I think that you guys should pull down the prior few posts. At a minimum, it is almost (close-to) insider information. If wrong, totally libel. If right, well, trade-worthy info.

Nah, this would be part of mozaic theory. You are allowed to research non-material non-public information and this would fall under such. Note this is material relative to headline shocker, not whether its a net new piece of incremental info to us. This is the principle wall street street analysts work under, and why they can talk to suppliers, retail channels, etc for all sorts of information and use it, very much legally.

Mosaic theory (investments) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Krugerrand]

Regarding Model X release, we don't know, what the Street thinks about it. Release per se won't move stock, since everyone knows that the release is imminent.

I'm confident that the Model X release will indeed move the stock up - a lot. Not simply because it's been released, but because it's going to be a big time hit and coveted. When people see the Falcon Wing doors in action and whatever Elon has done with the second row of seats, and whatever other features they've added that they are keeping top secret - yeah, stock is moving up especially when Tesla announces yet again they can't keep up with demand.

 

[austinEV]

You know where else it won't be available? Anywhere. Audi is completely full of it. They are the world leader in electric vehicle press releases. They've been talking about this car for like 7 years and have nothing to show for it. They should be ignored wholesale. This is not news, this is regurgitated 7 year old ******** which never had any basis in reality to begin with.

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Right, how much Audi? Why don't you give us a price for the car you've been talking about for 7 years? Oh wait, because you're not actually going to sell it and you're just wasting everyone's time? Exxxxxactly.

Betcha a month from now they say they're canceling the project because they haven't gotten any orders. Then a year from now they say the project is on again. Ad infinitum.

And they will say it demonstrates a lack of demand for EV's in the marketplace.

 

[Subhuman]

This will probobly get me more accusations of spreading FUD, btw those who called me FUDster on China still havnt come forward to say they were wrong.

I had the opportunity to speak to a friend working for big automotive supplier at Car Symposium in Bochum, he said Tesla was further behind on accepting delivery on components, so they revised the schedule in the summer and it seems like it will be revised down again, also consignment stock was supposed to be established in Fremont early 2015 now seems in the limbo.

Could be nothing, could be bad, definetly not good

One other possibility that is neutral is that the parts being supplied are only used for the standard single motor vehicles and cannot be used in the "D" models. It's possible that there has been a significant uptick on "D" vehicle orders while standard vehicle orders are declining resulting in less of the parts for single motor vehicles being needed. Just a theory.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'm confident that the Model X release will indeed move the stock up - a lot. Not simply because it's been released, but because it's going to be a big time hit and coveted. When people see the Falcon Wing doors in action and whatever Elon has done with the second row of seats, and whatever other features they've added that they are keeping top secret - yeah, stock is moving up especially when Tesla announces yet again they can't keep up with demand.

That's my guess too. Not that I have any solid evidence to back it up, but I have faith that Elon and the Tesla team really want to deliver something special. The D event is the most recent example. Tesla didn't show an X as I expected, but the P85D reveal was incredible and it felt like the company was as determined as ever to deliver only the best. Model S is a fantastic car, but the interior was a bit too spartan for family use in terms of storage/convenience features. A Model X that both delivers on the interior and provides noticeably more cargo room, is going to be a huge demand driver. I know many people who will only buy an SUV because they want the higher ride height and big cargo space in the rear. Model X will get Tesla the opportunity to tap this market.

I don't take any of this as a given, because we won't know for sure until delivery day for the Founder's Series, but I say it's more likely than not.

Given the secrecy surrounding the Model X project, and the small handful of Beta spy photos, I think nobody really knows what to expect. We also don't know the range and performance #'s. Where there is uncertainty, there's room for the stock to run if the X launch is a pleasant surprise. Absent solid information or news on progress (about Gigafactory, for example), the share price will continue to move sideways.

 

[doggusfluffy]

OK, I'm not sure how exactly this applies to short term movements...but consider this regarding the potential impact from an upcoming X reveal. If this is the undisputed reigning sales leader in the CUV category...how does the Model X...that we can best extrapolate from what little has already been seen compare?

The 2015 Honda CR-V: Everything Well :30 - YouTube

 

[anticitizen13.7]

OK, I'm not sure how exactly this applies to short term movements...but consider this regarding the potential impact from an upcoming X reveal. If this is the undisputed reigning sales leader in the CUV category...how does the Model X...that we can best extrapolate from what little has already been seen compare?

The 2015 Honda CR-V: Everything Well :30 - YouTube

Honda's CR-V has always been somewhat ugly but also supremely functional. The rear seats can be folded flat with the pull of a lever and there's lots of useful storage. Being built on a Civic platform however, the CR-V is a mass market car and not exactly in the Model X price range.

A more apt comparison would be to another Honda, specifically Honda Motor Co.'s Acura MDX, which is the best selling midsize luxury SUV in the U.S. and a perennial favorite of the automotive press. The MDX is widely regarded as the benchmark in this category, as it delivers decent acceleration and superb handling with its SH-AWD system. If Model X can blow away the MDX in a comparison test that evaluates both raw performance and functionality, I think it would make headlines.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Honda's CR-V has always been somewhat ugly but also supremely functional. The rear seats can be folded flat with the pull of a lever and there's lots of useful storage. Being built on a Civic platform however, the CR-V is a mass market car and not exactly in the Model X price range.

A more apt comparison would be to another Honda, specifically Honda Motor Co.'s Acura MDX, which is the best selling midsize luxury SUV in the U.S. and a perennial favorite of the automotive press. The MDX is widely regarded as the benchmark in this category, as it delivers decent acceleration and superb handling with its SH-AWD system. If Model X can blow away the MDX in a comparison test that evaluates both raw performance and functionality, I think it would make headlines.

I yield! I yield! You obviously grew up in those high born castles...expertly trained from birth by masters themselves. :biggrin:

At least it is safe to assume that safest in class is now property of one superior skateboard we already know?

 

[JRP3]

Bland and boxy, I expect the X to blow it away.

 

[bonaire]

dog': The CR-V is quite nice. I have driven one a few times (we have one in the family). Fantastic ride, tight suspension, smooth engine, good gas mileage, etc. For the money - a great deal. You can lease them for three years, well appointed for $340-360/mo, give or take.

Do you know the expected Model X pricing and the leasing costs? People use those numbers when pricing out their CUV purchases.

I would rather compare the Model X against the Honda Pilot, and not the CR-V.

 

[aznt1217]

Ummm I hate to burst everybody's bubble but the model X is not going to be competing with ANY HONDA OR ACURA. It will be competing with the BMW X5/X6, MB ML/GL, Lexus LX, Audi Q7, and high end Porsche Macan/Cayenne due to price point which we know will be a little higher than Model S and up.

 

[farzyness]

A quick update to my chart that I posted before. Still on track for a potential breakout.

 

[Drax7]

Following Apple production and supply chain over the years, Similar rumors and misinformation came up hundreds of times and always proved mistaken as an indicator .
Demand backlogs are huge, delivery times are not shortening, moreover tesla needs to deliver and book sales as quickly as possible to realize gross margins to further invest.

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Ummm I hate to burst everybody's bubble but the model X is not going to be competing with ANY HONDA OR ACURA. It will be competing with the BMW X5/X6, MB ML/GL, Lexus LX, Audi Q7, and high end Porsche Macan/Cayenne due to price point which we know will be a little higher than Model S and up.

The model x will be competing against the Range Rover , the SUV status symbol.

 

[JRP3]

While the Model S did not "compete" with the Prius a good number of Prius drivers chose the S over a new Prius. Similarly I expect the X to "compete" with a large range of SUV choices.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Ummm I hate to burst everybody's bubble but the model X is not going to be competing with ANY HONDA OR ACURA. It will be competing with the BMW X5/X6, MB ML/GL, Lexus LX, Audi Q7, and high end Porsche Macan/Cayenne due to price point which we know will be a little higher than Model S and up.

I disagree, because I've seen many people on this forum upgrade to a Model S from relatively pedestrian Honda products. Some customers who previously wouldn't consider a luxury car did buy a Tesla.

Believe it or not, Acura is the top dog in midsize luxury SUVs. The MDX generally outsells the X5, MB M, GX, and Q7. MDX is to midsize luxury what the CR-V is to the compact mainstream.

Model X can and should compete against the Acura MDX. First, that market represents a lot of potential customers, and second it would wake up Honda Motor Co. with a big shock. The MDX is a cash cow for the Acura division, it's de facto flagship, and probably the only reason the Acura brand has survived in recent years. This would encourage HMC to move toward electrification.

 

[pGo]

Bland and boxy, I expect the X to blow it away.

View attachment 74067

Not a fair comparison. You can get two and some for the price of X.