Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Renaud]

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Looks like in the absence of price movements this thread goes off topic .
So let´s discuss that absence - does anyone have an idea who is interested
in keeping stock price flat at $230? Doesn´t seem like just a coincidence.

Same question I have...Relatively low volume, no news, nothing positive, nothing negative...boring day.
Interesting to notice however that we briefly went above the 200 SMA, and we are still above the 50 SMA.
I wonder what kind of sales figure we will have before the end of the week, that might bring back some colors to this...
Have a good evening everyone!

 

[hobbes]

I wonder what kind of sales figure we will have before the end of the week, that might bring back some colors to this...
Have a good evening everyone!

I think official sales figures only on quarter ends, but there´ll be lots of numbers from Europe, especially Denmark this time. Good evening to you, too!

 

[Papafox]

Same question I have...Relatively low volume, no news, nothing positive, nothing negative...boring day.
Interesting to notice however that we briefly went above the 200 SMA, and we are still above the 50 SMA.
I wonder what kind of sales figure we will have before the end of the week, that might bring back some colors to this...
Have a good evening everyone!

So maybe the real question is: who has an interest in keeping TSLA below the 200 day MA? Answer: the shorts
or
We've established a pattern today of going above and below 230 several times and the day traders are working the stock, buying below 230 and selling above, then repeating

 

[hobbes]

So maybe the real question is: who has an interest in keeping TSLA below the 200 day MA? Answer: the shorts
or
We've established a pattern today of going above and below 230 several times and the day traders are working the stock, buying below 230 and selling above, then repeating

So if there were no big guys involved, the price would go up slightly on low volume? Seems plausible.

Good news (o.k. not huge but better than nothing) from the X section: P4787 and at least one other invited to configure: Production X Configuration Has Begun! - Page 38

 

[cziegler]

I don't recall my original reservation number but IIRC it was 4400ish - We received our invite to build today as well. Additionally, we placed an order for a Model S 90D and mentioned to the sales team that we'd take anything close to our specifications if they had something available in inventory, their answer, "nothing close". Estimated delivery date, late December.

So if there were no big guys involved, the price would go up slightly on low volume? Seems plausible.

Good news (o.k. not huge but better than nothing) from the X section: P4787 and at least one other invited to configure: Production X Configuration Has Begun! - Page 38

 

[Hogfighter]

So tomorrow is Dec. 1st......shouldn't we expect 'several hundred X's per week' being delivered? :redface:

 

[anticitizen13.7]

So tomorrow is Dec. 1st......shouldn't we expect 'several hundred X's per week' being delivered? :redface:

I check the Model X sub-forum and the Bonnie Signature Model X threads specifically every day for status updates. The next 4 weeks are going to be interesting.

 

[mmd]

This thread has been pretty quiet during the Thanksgiving break. Hope everyone had a good time. But the debate on HP issue is going on strong in the other thread. It seems Tesla may have agreed to buyback some cars. What do people think of its effect on ST price movement?

Stop the Press! Tesla announces REAL HP numbers for P85D and P90L - Page 206

 

[MikeC]

This thread has been pretty quiet during the Thanksgiving break. Hope everyone had a good time. But the debate on HP issue is going on strong in the other thread. It seems Tesla may have agreed to buyback some cars. What do people think of its effect on ST price movement?

Stop the Press! Tesla announces REAL HP numbers for P85D and P90L - Page 206

I think this is more of a TMC issue than a TSLA issue. It's the same small group of people discussing the issue ad nauseum among themselves - this makes for very long TMC threads but even if TM were to buy back all their cars I don't see much impact on the bottom line.

 

[mmd]

I think this is more of a TMC issue than a TSLA issue. It's the same small group of people discussing the issue ad nauseum among themselves - this makes for very long TMC threads but even if TM were to buy back all their cars I don't see much impact on the bottom line.

I was referring to the article link in the TMC post I linked to above. Here is the article link. Some folks are saying, this means Tesla has agreed to buy back cars from the dissatisfied owners.
Watchdog: Owner bemused by Tesla’s power shortfall | Carbuyer

 

[maoing]

Anybody has ideas once Bonnie got confirmation for the date her model X enter production, then how long does it take until delivery? My guess is Bonnie will be contacted by TM in the 1st week of Dec. and then take delivery in the 4th week of Dec., i.e. right before Christmas if she's lucky.

I check the Model X sub-forum and the Bonnie Signature Model X threads specifically every day for status updates. The next 4 weeks are going to be interesting.

 

[MikeC]

I was referring to the article link in the TMC post I linked to above. Here is the article link. Some folks are saying, this means Tesla has agreed to buy back cars from the dissatisfied owners.
Watchdog: Owner bemused by Tesla’s power shortfall | Carbuyer

Right, and I said even if Tesla did buy all the cars back from everyone complaining, I don't think it would have much impact on their bottom line.

 

[madodel]

Sorry to bring this thread back on topic, but "According to brokerage firm analysts on the Street, Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares have a short term target price of $280.181, according to Zacks Research." So assuming Tesla makes at least 50k vehicles, no surprises in regard to EPS, and a few hundred Model X before Dec. 31st, and there are no further screwups, does anyone think we will approach $280 going into the new year? It would make my waiting for my Model X go a little bit less frustrating.

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Mean Target $280.181: Analysts

 

[sub]

Anybody has ideas once Bonnie got confirmation for the date her model X enter production, then how long does it take until delivery? My guess is Bonnie will be contacted by TM in the 1st week of Dec. and then take delivery in the 4th week of Dec., i.e. right before Christmas if she's lucky.

It's irrelevant when the first signature X is delivered as long as the 50k minimum guidance is met. I believe that when the Model X starts hitting the street this will cause an increase in TSLA in addition to meeting the 50k, but it won't tank if no X are delivered in 2015. You can always hope though.

 

[Auzie]

This thread has been pretty quiet during the Thanksgiving break. Hope everyone had a good time. But the debate on HP issue is going on strong in the other thread. It seems Tesla may have agreed to buyback some cars. What do people think of its effect on ST price movement?

Stop the Press! Tesla announces REAL HP numbers for P85D and P90L - Page 206

I think this is more of a TMC issue than a TSLA issue. It's the same small group of people discussing the issue ad nauseum among themselves - this makes for very long TMC threads but even if TM were to buy back all their cars I don't see much impact on the bottom line.

+1

MikeC nailed it, this is TMC forum issue rather than real Tesla issue. Talk is cheap (long threads), but actions speak louder than words.

Tesla may have agreed to buy back cars from dissatisfied customers, but there are hardly any customers lining up to surrender their cars.

 

[mmd]

+1

MikeC nailed it, this is TMC forum issue rather than real Tesla issue. Talk is cheap (long threads), but actions speak louder than words.

Tesla may have agreed to buy back cars from dissatisfied customers, but there are hardly any customers lining up to surrender their cars.

I think, there are about 700 people in Europe who have filed complaints against Tesla about the horse power issue. And these are all top end P85D customers. More people might sign up for refund afterwards. At $125k each, this would be a negative revenue (or expense?) of $87.5M. IMO, if all these buyers ask for a refund, it won't be negligible. But I guess, it is still very unclear what is going to happen on this.

 

[NJ Plugin]

So tomorrow is Dec. 1st......shouldn't we expect 'several hundred X's per week' being delivered? :redface:

I believe on the last earnings CC Elon said something like a production rate (maybe it was delivered) of a couple hundred X's by the end of the month.

NOT for December 1st.

- - - Updated - - -

I think, there are about 700 people in Europe who have filed complaints against Tesla about the horse power issue. And these are all top end P85D customers. More people might sign up for refund afterwards. At $125k each, this would be a negative revenue (or expense?) of $87.5M. IMO, if all these buyers ask for a refund, it won't be negligible. But I guess, it is still very unclear what is going to happen on this.

Would Tesla get the cars back? Couldn't they sell the cars as CPO's then? Less of a $$ loss.

 

[Auzie]

I think, there are about 700 people in Europe who have filed complaints against Tesla about the horse power issue. And these are all top end P85D customers. More people might sign up for refund afterwards. At $125k each, this would be a negative revenue (or expense?) of $87.5M. IMO, if all these buyers ask for a refund, it won't be negligible. But I guess, it is still very unclear what is going to happen on this.

Complaints in Europe are not dealt with the court at this stage, but consumer agencies.

Any potential refund to European customers comes with the obligation to give back the car.

Considering that these people purchased their cars in late 2014, early 2015, they got it for a different (lower) price to what the car costs now, due to significant forex moves. The affected customers might be better off selling their cars themselves rather than getting a refund from Tesla, especially in Denmark and Norway. Tesla refund is likely to be conditional. These customers will likely never be able to buy another Tesla car.

In summary, too much to lose, too little to gain if anyone is after a refund. I doubt that there will be many takers.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Would Tesla get the cars back? Couldn't they sell the cars as CPO's then? Less of a $$ loss.

That's true.

In fact, someone who feels they didn't get what they paid for, but who nevertheless likes the car and wants to keep it, could just accept the full refund and then immediately re-buy the car for the CPO price. So this could serve as the benchmark for the fair amount of a potential settlement.

(OTOH: what Auzie said.)

 

[roblab]

I think, there are about 700 people in Europe who have filed complaints against Tesla about the horse power issue. And these are all top end P85D customers. More people might sign up for refund afterwards. At $125k each, this would be a negative revenue (or expense?) of $87.5M. IMO, if all these buyers ask for a refund, it won't be negligible. But I guess, it is still very unclear what is going to happen on this.

So far, lots of conjecture. I prefer waiting and seeing what actually happens, but that's not as sensational.