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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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mmd
Active Member
LOL! You are trying to make me angry with your insulting words. But I will take a deep breath, and disengage from the garbage talk with you. This thread is full of conjectures. If it's not a conjecture, it is past. Over 95% posts here are conjectures, mostly ultra-bullish nonsense. Probably 100% of your posts are like that; I never paid much attention. I will now add you to my ignore list.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
mmd, I think what he was getting at is your math of 700 cars X $125k each = $87.5M expense for Tesla misses two glaringly obvious elements: 1) depreciation. Tesla wouldn't buy them back at full retail price. They'd reduce for mileage. 2) Resale. Tesla wouldn't just scrap those cars. They'd resell them as CPO cars.
When factoring in these two additional variables that you conveniently overlooked, it would be more like 700 cars X $125,000 - $25,000 depreciation - $90,000 resale, or more like a $7M expense, not $87.5M as you paint it.
Factor in forex moves over the last 9 months and the current wait times for new European deliveries and Tesla might even break even or come out ahead.
But I also seriously doubt 700 people would want to give up their Model S. They're just angling for a free ludicrous upgrade, IMO. At $5,000 each we're looking at a $3.5M expense, tops.
When factoring in these two additional variables that you conveniently overlooked, it would be more like 700 cars X $125,000 - $25,000 depreciation - $90,000 resale, or more like a $7M expense, not $87.5M as you paint it.
Factor in forex moves over the last 9 months and the current wait times for new European deliveries and Tesla might even break even or come out ahead.
But I also seriously doubt 700 people would want to give up their Model S. They're just angling for a free ludicrous upgrade, IMO. At $5,000 each we're looking at a $3.5M expense, tops.
mmd
Active Member
Yeah, I got the points that
a) The value of the cars returned will be added to inventory.
b) It's not expense, probably revenue adjustments of past quarters or quarter when a car is returned. I doubt, the owners will accept a reduced refund due to depreciation, but we can each stick to our own convictions.
c) It may really be a small percent of these owners who will ask for a buyback, and it's not even confirmed if there is a buyback.
I agreed with most of these, and so I didn't respond to save space on this thread. The minute details ( inventory vs. revenue) are not worth debating about. I was only trying to estimate what net impact will be, if as MikeC says, all the dissatisfied owners will opt for refunds. I believe, the revenue impact will be -(price of cars), and the value of the cars will be added to the inventory, and later recognized as revenue when ithey get sold. I do not disagree with the points previous posters made on this topic. What will really happen is anyone's guess.
mmd, whatever the outcome, we are unlikely to see it in a foreseeable quarter or even year.
Norway Consumer Council is mediating between Tesla and 150 customers in Norway. It is my understanding that the Council does not have the powers to make enforceable decisions. If either party is not happy with the Council outcome, they might elect to ignore the decision. If that happens, customers have the option of going to courts.
The possible outcome might involve the offer to purchase the car back. Tesla is unlikely to accept some sort of bargaining and haggling as it would set a bad precedent that would be bad for future business.
USD will likely further appreciate against the Euro and NOK, making it less and less attractive for dissatisfied customers to surrender their car, even for the full original purchase price.
In summary, cards seem to be stacked in Telsa's favour regarding this issue. The issue will slowly die off as people realize their non-existing or limited chances of success of extracting money from Tesla over the issue.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
As it is already beginning of December, some delivery estimates/figures for November will be released soon.
Does anybody think monthly delivery figures for November will move the needle up or down?
Right now everybody is tracking global Model S deliveries to see if TM is able to make the yearly 50000 vehicles delivered.
IMO this yearly goal of 50000 global deliveries is very important for TSLA to reconfirm the 50% annual growth rate.
I could imagine some positive delivery figures for e.g. Denmark as well as some negative delivery figures for e.g. in Norway.
Thoughts?
Does anybody think monthly delivery figures for November will move the needle up or down?
Right now everybody is tracking global Model S deliveries to see if TM is able to make the yearly 50000 vehicles delivered.
IMO this yearly goal of 50000 global deliveries is very important for TSLA to reconfirm the 50% annual growth rate.
I could imagine some positive delivery figures for e.g. Denmark as well as some negative delivery figures for e.g. in Norway.
Thoughts?
Tesla has already achieved their yearly 50% YoY growth. Last year deliveries stood at 31,655, so with 50% that makes this years threshold 47,483. I think we can safely say that Tesla will beat that number.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I agree, thank's for pointing it out.
The 50000 global deliveries goal is already exceeding the 50% growth goal a bit (and that's great).
IMO the street is looking for the 50000 global deliveries figure to decide TM 'make or break' for year 2015.
I want to understand the streets expectations and possible corresponding actions SP wise.
In case TM exceeding 47483 global deliveries during 2015, we can at least expect some positive press articles about 50% growth rate still intact.
What does anybody think about importance for guidance for 2016?
My impression is that currently execution is more important than future guidance.
Thoughts?
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
What does anybody think about Model X Signature vehicle deliveries?
While I like the fact that about a dozen of Model X Founders series vehicles have been delivered to their owners during the last weeks (see pics on instagram and imgur), I have the impression that a lot of investors do not know about this first series of Model X vehicles. They might know about the Signature series vehicles as early production series and decide on their investment depending on Signature vehicle delivery progress. That's why I think the Signature series vehicles getting out to their customers is far more important for SP than the Founders series vehicles.
Personally I expected a Model X roll out similar to Model S some years ago, starting with a couple of dozens of vehicles and about 6 weeks from the first Founders vehicle to the first Signature vehicle.
As of today this is not the case.
What bothers me is that we do not have any news about a delivery date scheduled from TM for a Model X Signature series vehicle.
Taking a buffer, e.g. about one week, into account for the time needed from confirmation of the delivery date to the delivery of the vehicle there are only three weeks left for Model X deliveries during 2015.
The big issue is that end of Q4 is getting closer and closer and especially the last week(s) of the near term ramp slipping out of Q4 and into Q1 2015 hurt as production is expected to have already increased by then.
I don't know if it's worth thinking about 0 Model X Signature vehicles delivered during Q4 2015 and the potential impact on SP.
And if I should change my positions accordingly (because my positions are currently not prepared for such a scenario!).
What does anybody else think about Model X Signature vehicle deliveries as of today?
Anybody thinking about changing their positions because of this apparently slower ramp compared to Model S?
While I like the fact that about a dozen of Model X Founders series vehicles have been delivered to their owners during the last weeks (see pics on instagram and imgur), I have the impression that a lot of investors do not know about this first series of Model X vehicles. They might know about the Signature series vehicles as early production series and decide on their investment depending on Signature vehicle delivery progress. That's why I think the Signature series vehicles getting out to their customers is far more important for SP than the Founders series vehicles.
Personally I expected a Model X roll out similar to Model S some years ago, starting with a couple of dozens of vehicles and about 6 weeks from the first Founders vehicle to the first Signature vehicle.
As of today this is not the case.
What bothers me is that we do not have any news about a delivery date scheduled from TM for a Model X Signature series vehicle.
Taking a buffer, e.g. about one week, into account for the time needed from confirmation of the delivery date to the delivery of the vehicle there are only three weeks left for Model X deliveries during 2015.
The big issue is that end of Q4 is getting closer and closer and especially the last week(s) of the near term ramp slipping out of Q4 and into Q1 2015 hurt as production is expected to have already increased by then.
I don't know if it's worth thinking about 0 Model X Signature vehicles delivered during Q4 2015 and the potential impact on SP.
And if I should change my positions accordingly (because my positions are currently not prepared for such a scenario!).
What does anybody else think about Model X Signature vehicle deliveries as of today?
Anybody thinking about changing their positions because of this apparently slower ramp compared to Model S?
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Slower ramp? I think you need to go back and review the delivery schedule of the first few Signature Model Ss. (FYI: MS vin 000029)
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
ggr, congrats to your Model S!
Do you remeber how many days after the initial deliveries event you received your Model S?
Is your VIN a Founders/Siganture/Production number?
I would simply like to understand better what we can realistically expect from Model X ramp short term wise.
Interesting read for bull and bear. Also posted in TA thread; http://www.thestreet.com/story/1338...ally-to-500.html?puc=CNNMONEY&cm_ven=CNNMONEY
For those that believe in 'max pain' theory ( I do with low volume days/week) it is currently $225 for the market close on Friday. Certainly this figure can change over time but if we continue low volume/no catalyst days this week it is one data point to watch/consider.
For those that believe in 'max pain' theory ( I do with low volume days/week) it is currently $225 for the market close on Friday. Certainly this figure can change over time but if we continue low volume/no catalyst days this week it is one data point to watch/consider.
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Bonnie said a few times that she asked for 1 week advance notice.
I interpret that as - she will know exactly 1 week prior to the actual delivery. My thinking is that Tesla will not commit to an exact delivery date without absolutely knowing for sure that the car is completely done and ready - no more, no less. Then there is Bonnie's 1 week window.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
TSLA green and above 200DMA.
Has to stay above the 200DMA now.
Let's see if we get a bullish close today.
We need some direction, this lull is crazy and not helping anybody (bull or bear).
Has to stay above the 200DMA now.
Let's see if we get a bullish close today.
We need some direction, this lull is crazy and not helping anybody (bull or bear).
roblab
Active Member
Model S VIN 00064 was delivered mid Sept. I was number 8 after founders and engineers. They were doing about 50 a week at that point, and it seemed it would take forever to get through the signatures, but it was just a few months, it seemed. They have to get the process down, and all of a sudden, it moved.
We all wanted a better understanding, and realistic expectations. We had waited years. But some of us finally figured that it would happen when it would happen. No one was going to get their order until Tesla was ready, and NO one was going to have any fore knowledge. Just like now.
Hold your pants on, as they say. Expectations aren't worth a whole lot.
Global warming world conference going on in Paris now is coming
around to Elon's view .
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Hi roblab, thank's for your input.
I have absolutely no issue with waiting a little longer for a car, what I would like to understand a little better are the possible implications on the SP.
As far as I know Model S first deliveries event was 2012-06-05.
That would translate to about three months till delivery of Model S VIN00064 during mid September.
Model X first deliveries have taken place in Fremont on 2015-09-29.
That would translate to a delivery of Model X VIN64 about end of December.
Personally I expected a bit more than a couple of dozens of Model X delivered during 2015.
Just want to align my expectations with reality as good as possible
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