Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[RobStark]

I think doubling the company's sales is conservative. The market for premium SUV's in America is 4 to 5 times larger than the market for premium sedans. Look at Porsche:
View attachment 86730
Porsche's SUVs (macan and cayenne) outsold the Panamera 110k to 25k in 2014, nearly a 5:1 ratio between SUVs and their sedan.
It seems pretty clear that the Model X will outsell the Model S by more than double(if Porsche is a good reference point).
The usual downsides to SUVs won't apply to the Model X (fuel efficiency, handling) and all the benefits are magnified (storage capacity, utility).
If Tesla can sell 50k Model S's per year, there is definitely a market for more than 100k Model X's.

IMO a significant reason for the disparity in Panamera vs Cayenne sales is the Model S is taking large numbers of sales away from Panamera and very few from Cayenne. In the US Panamera sales are down ~25% in a growing overall market since the introduction of the Model S.

Once Model X is introduced Cayenne sales will plummet ~25% while Panamera remain stable or down ~5%.

 

[uselesslogin]

Just have to list this.
Porsche starting prices:
Panamera $78k
Cayenne $62k
Macan $53k

I think that goes a long way to explaining why Porsches SUVs out sell the Panamera.

 

[WarpedOne]

It is said that +$5k halfs the sells and -$5k doubles them.
Between 53k macan and 78 panamera there is 25k or 5 such steps of doubling. So, macan byitself should outsell panamera 32:1.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Is there a new rating by Pacific Crest out today (steetinsider: link)?!
This rating by Pacific Crest, mentioned at streetinsider, appears to be a bit strange as streetinsider mentions downgrade, sector weight and overweight for the same rating and not giving a price target for TSLA.
Does anybody have access to the corresponding note from Pacific Crest or a more precise press digest?

As far as I can see, two weeks ago Pacific Crest reiterated an overweight rating on TSLA with a price target of $293 (link).
After a positive factory visit in Fremont Pacific Crest analyst Brad Erickson noted that Tesla was "gearing up" for the Model X, and he expects investor optimism to grow into the launch of Model X.

What could have changed during the last two weeks that made them change their minds?!

Thanks in advance for more info on the latest Pacific Crest rating on Tesla!

 

[vgrinshpun]

PacificCrest downgrades Tesla from Overweight to Sector Weight, removes price target, talks about $293 being "fair value".

StreetInsider.com digest:

Pacific Crest downgraded Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) from Overweight to Sector Weight and removed its price target. Analyst Brad Erickson thinks valuation is "getting full" and noted a "high bar" in the second half of the year.

"From root-level technology and manufacturing all the way to sales and marketing, distribution and executive management, Tesla's differentiation relative to its peer group is nothing short of total. We simply believe the stock price now more fully reflects these core attributes. Upside potential remains, as evidenced by our fair-value estimate, but recent appreciation has created a more balanced risk/reward profile, which prompts us to downgrade to Sector Weight," said Erickson.

"Sentiment has reversed dramatically since six months ago. Now there is less concern about low oil prices, less fear about competition, less skepticism around opportunities in China and less worry about demand. We also believe optimism around Model X has risen meaningfully heading into a likely September launch," continued the analyst.

Erickson added, "We are lowering our 2015/2016 estimates on lower lease revenue and establishing 2020 estimates; we view fair value at $293 based on 20x our 2020 EPS estimate."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.
Shares of Tesla Motors closed at $267.88 yesterday.

 

[techmaven]

I humbly submit that the Model S will be a sexier and more desirable vehicle for anyone that doesn't need the back seat room or the seating capacity of the X. It will likely has further range and be slightly cheaper with equivalent models. Therefore, I don't think Model S sales will suffer all that much. I do hope that Tesla can continue to increase the value of the car or outright lower the entry price of the S. With plunging commodity prices, favorable yen to USD, and increased scale, I hope the Model S gets cheaper next year.

 

[jhm]

IMO a significant reason for the disparity in Panamera vs Cayenne sales is the Model S is taking large numbers of sales away from Panamera and very few from Cayenne. In the US Panamera sales are down ~25% in a growing overall market since the introduction of the Model S.

Once Model X is introduced Cayenne sales will plummet ~25% while Panamera remain stable or down ~5%.

Awesome point. We can't really look at Porsche's product mix without accounting for the damage already done by Tesla. I'm excited about the Model X because SUVs is one of the most profitable and least fuel efficient segments. Remember that under CAFE, automakers suffer low margins in fuel efficient small sedans for the privilege of selling high margin gas guzzling SUVs and trucks. So the Model X will kick them in the moneymaker. When automakers begin to reduce prices on SUVs we'll know that Tesla is starting to transform the industry.

 

[HansWurst]

We should not forget that the Panamera was introduced in 2009 and it will be refreshed later this year. I am not sure if the decline in Panamera sales should really be considered as an appropriate measure for future S sales or the Model X intro.


EDIT
Ok I just realised that the Panamera was refreshed in 2013 so the model is not as old as I assumed. Still it will be interesting to see the reception of the new Panamera.

Awesome point. We can't really look at Porsche's product mix without accounting for the damage already done by Tesla. I'm excited about the Model X because SUVs is one of the most profitable and least fuel efficient segments. Remember that under CAFE, automakers suffer low margins in fuel efficient small sedans for the privilege of selling high margin gas guzzling SUVs and trucks. So the Model X will kick them in the moneymaker. When automakers begin to reduce prices on SUVs we'll know that Tesla is starting to transform the industry.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Strong delivery numbers reported for some european countries in the EU-thread.
At the beginning word of mouth advertising takes some time to pick up speed (and is getting exponential in the end).
Deliveries in Europe started about a year later compared to USA, word of mouth is expected to spread later accordingly.
Still no advertising by Tesla Motors in Germany.

 

[aznt1217]

I think a TSLA support group session is in order. Weird analyst actions keeping lofty price targets but changing sentiment/conviction. Great opp for traders

Where is Andrea James when you need her

 

[eloder]

Down nearing 260 in pre-market, I'm assuming due to the sector weight downgrade.

I had some stop limit sales activated yesterday so I'll probably be holding off on putting my short-term shares back in. Looks like some great buy-in opportunities today though!

 

[mibaro2]

It was great buying opportunities yesterday also...would like to see a reversal by the end of the week, but with the global jitters, I'm doubtful it will happen.

 

[JRP3]

With plunging commodity prices, favorable yen to USD, and increased scale, I hope the Model S gets cheaper next year.

I wonder if Tesla will keep moving the S/X upmarket and count on the 3 to fill in the gap. That certainly has been the trend so far, entry price for the S has gone up over time with the cancellation of the 40 and 60. I'm not sure I want to see a cheaper Model S at this point.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Teslas battery man to give Intersolar North Americas keynote opening | PV-Tech

He will be joined at the opening ceremony on Monday, 13 July by other solar advocates and policymakers including the head of Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy, Dr. Eicke Weber, California Solar Energy Industries Association (CALSEIA) executive director Bernadette del Chiaro and New York state senator Kevin S. Parker.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

The thing that pisses me off the most about the falling stock is that Citron Research is laughing. I hope one of the big boys with conviction like the rest of us steps in and causes a squeeze. Where is Carl Icahn when you need him?

 

[CyberDutchie]

What the hell ??!!??

I don't think anyone here saw this coming...sigh. Giving back all last month's gains. Where is the news?

 

[Bobbyducati]

gonna be another rough day...

 

[Lump]

Baird analyst Ben Kallo is out defending Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) following two competitor downgrades over the past two days. Kallo reiterated his Outperform and price target of $335, saying the they would use recent weakness in shares as a buying opportunity.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...rade+to+Accumulate/10709502.html?si_client=st

(analyst ping pong)

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

gonna be another rough day...

We don't even have a 10% correction yet and grown men are weeping. LOL! Grow some balls forum

All joking and in fun of course

 

[Bobbyducati]

We don't even have a 10% correction yet and grown men are weeping. LOL! Grow some balls forum

All joking and in fun of course

haha yeah very true, im just super biter cause i added some short term shares RIGHT BEFORE this "crash" occurred.