Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[hockeythug]

Ameritrade just posted Option Alert: Tesla Aug $330 Call Sweep; 1988 Contracts at Ask @$1.68; Now $274.42. Can someone put this in English for a non-option person.

Large option order for August calls(the option to purchase the stock at $330 a share at a date in August) spread over muliple exchanges.

 

[SteveG3]

Honestly TSLA the car company I believe is priced in for the X to have modest deliveries. What I think is totally not priced in (and cautiously so) is TSLA the battery/energy storage making company because we have not seen these come to fruition yet. We are experiencing Model S a la 2012 with Tesla energy storage products. Demand and contracts are there now it is up to Tesla to fulfill them. This has and always been the case with Tesla playing catch up because they created a product with a proof of concept that has people drooling at the mouth.

I do agree a lot of the veterans that are battle tested don't reply as often because we've gotten used to the undulations. I'm going to reference Elon's options milestone of 50B Market Cap in the next year or so. It will happen and when it happens be ready for it because it'll be fast because TSLA is still extremely divisive as is Elon Musk. People either love him or hate him.

The level of "obviousness" if that's even a word is relative to your time horizon. Long term (1+ year) it's very obvious. Short term (weekly trading) it's a little tricky but I can tell you that after a TMC conference people get real fired up because we get some tid bits of information that are public but take the media time to publish/absorb.

As to Tesla Energy, I've seen a number of analysts pricing it in at ~$25 per share, which is about $3 billion in market cap. I think it's worth noting that Tesla Motors had a cap at that level after winning Motor Trend Car of the Year unanimously, and reaching a 20K/year production run rate, which Elon described roughly as crossing out of the life/death period. Tesla Energy may become a stunning success, but in my view a $3 billion T.E. valuation given a not totally unreasonable "show me" view from many on Wall Street isn't surprising. Elon basically made repeated comments on the last earnings call telling the analysts the business can't really be valued until we see where things are in a year. I wrote about those Elon comments in more detail the day after the call, and can find that post if you like.

 

[FluxCap]

Ameritrade just posted Option Alert: Tesla Aug $330 Call Sweep; 1988 Contracts at Ask @$1.68; Now $274.42. Can someone put this in English for a non-option person.

That means someone just bet $333,984 that TSLA would be at or near $330/share before August 21st, 2015. That's quite a large out of the money bet.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

That means someone just bet $333,984 that TSLA would be at or near $330/share before August 21st, 2015. That's quite a large out of the money bet.

Yes, large money bet even for a Teslanaire

Sometimes people know something when they make a bet like this but a lot of time they don't. Or they know something but it doesn't affect the stock like they thought it would. Interesting to see but I wouldn't put too much stock (literally) in this.

 

[chickensevil]

Touch Screens Taking Over Dashboards, Despite Distraction Risks
Notice the screenshot image of the Model S...actually doing both. :wink:

Just a comment here, Tesla passes this with flying colors in every regard. The only "complicated" taskings on the car, the web browser, should be the only thing that you avoid while the car is in motion. Everything else is super simple to use with generally the tap of one button (maybe two) on the screen.

let's see here the most complicated things I can think of (outside of the web browser):

1: Music, best case: "Listen To: AC/DC", tap the artist on the screen to hear them... in the more complicated case, you would have to navigate through the relatively simple media menus, for something already in your favorites at most you are talking, one tap to pull up media (if not already on the screen), a tap to browse, a tap to favorites, and a tap on your favorite station/song... which is that "recommended 4 button press maximum".
2: Navigation: Best case: "Navigate to: Home" Boom! It auto pulls it all up. A slightly more complicated "Navigate to: Panera Bread" you would have to then look long enough to pick the right destination choice on the map and you are then good. In a slightly more worst case, hitting the menu to pull up locations, go to history/favorites, scroll through and click the destination of choice.

The important thing here is that alternatives exist for all options generally keeping you from having to look at the screen for long. I have had people ask if it is distracting, to which I always give a big resounding "No!" response to. Because you have such a large view to clearly see whatever information you need to assist in driving, and any actions are super easy to get to. The only thing easier is going all the way back to something like the 40s when you had like 4 buttons on the dash. Fan On/Off... Heat On/Off... Done! (I guess simple radio controls in there somewhere too right?)

 

[ibcs]

Yes, large money bet even for a Teslanaire

Sometimes people know something when they make a bet like this but a lot of time they don't. Or they know something but it doesn't affect the stock like they thought it would. Interesting to see but I wouldn't put too much stock (literally) in this.

Thanks for the explanations that helps me to understand why it was an Option Alert with big money.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both agree Tesla could be worth in excess of $2000 per share if Tesla is able to sell 1 million vehicles per year. The only catch is neither of them are willing to emphasize that part of their forecast. Deutsch Bank is making a pointless remark by saying they believe Tesla's current price reflects Tesla becomming a successful automobile manufacturer.

They sort of admit the price target is very conservative, and say they are not pricing in battery storage because it is hard to forecast how this will effect Tesla. Basically, they are being extremely conservative. Does anyone have a copy of the complete report? What specific conditions/expectations are included in the $280 price target?

 

[austinEV]

Just a comment here, Tesla passes this with flying colors in every regard. The only "complicated" taskings on the car, the web browser, should be the only thing that you avoid while the car is in motion. Everything else is super simple to use with generally the tap of one button (maybe two) on the screen.

let's see here the most complicated things I can think of (outside of the web browser):

1: Music, best case: "Listen To: AC/DC", tap the artist on the screen to hear them... in the more complicated case, you would have to navigate through the relatively simple media menus, for something already in your favorites at most you are talking, one tap to pull up media (if not already on the screen), a tap to browse, a tap to favorites, and a tap on your favorite station/song... which is that "recommended 4 button press maximum".
2: Navigation: Best case: "Navigate to: Home" Boom! It auto pulls it all up. A slightly more complicated "Navigate to: Panera Bread" you would have to then look long enough to pick the right destination choice on the map and you are then good. In a slightly more worst case, hitting the menu to pull up locations, go to history/favorites, scroll through and click the destination of choice.

The important thing here is that alternatives exist for all options generally keeping you from having to look at the screen for long. I have had people ask if it is distracting, to which I always give a big resounding "No!" response to. Because you have such a large view to clearly see whatever information you need to assist in driving, and any actions are super easy to get to. The only thing easier is going all the way back to something like the 40s when you had like 4 buttons on the dash. Fan On/Off... Heat On/Off... Done! (I guess simple radio controls in there somewhere too right?)

Off topic note: We need a tesla/touchscreen specific taboo to bake into the culture: When the driver is operating the touchscreen, this is not the time for the passenger to start poking at buttons too. I have about strangled people for thinking that was ok. I am driving, trying to do something and someone goes "ooh, shiny menu lets see what that does". In their mind it is a device they can mess with, in my mind its the driver controls and you are distracting me horribly. Second taboo: messing with the climate controls and leaving the climate subwindow up in the forground. I have to poke the screen to clear the menu and see the nav again or whatever I need. I have been on road trips where the passenger did this over and over.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

so (35 x 2.4) + 15 from outside suppliers= ~100 GWhs of pack production.

if size of factory correlates with production capability we're looking at a GF that is twice as big as originally intended.

holy smokes

If the acreage correlates with the size of the buildings, it sounds like TM just purchased the site of GF2!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-thinks-teslas-growth-115544658.html

Deutsche Bank says Tesla is about to explode, but that doesn't mean the stock is worth buying right now.

In a note on Tuesday, analysts at the firm downgraded the stock to "Hold" from "Buy" while raising their price target 14% to $280 from $245...

n a note, Deutsche Bank wrote (emphasis added): We've been bullish on Tesla's prospects, based on the company's Electric Vehicle opportunity. In late April Tesla announced plans to leverage their scale and battery systems knowhow in Stationary Storage. This market is in its infancy (1.2 GWh added in the US in 2014).
But we've become convinced that it will increase dramatically (14.3 GWh by 2020). The global opportunity is likely >2x this level. And we believe that TSLA could become a dominant player. But at this point, Tesla's shares appear to already reflect this opportunity.

Tesla shares are up 25% year-to-date and fell about 2% in premarket trading on Tuesday.

In its note Tuesday, Deutsche Bank writes that while it is hard to forecast how huge the stationary-storage market will be, experts are saying the US market could be worth more than $2 billion a year by 2020. And that could be worth an additional $2.20 to Tesla's earnings per share.


Over in Tesla's automobiles segment, the firm forecasts that electric vehicles could cost just as much as diesel cars within the next five years and could reach parity with gasoline by 2020.
"We further believe that no company is better positioned to take advantage of this development than Tesla," Deutsche Bank writes. But at this point, much of that growth is already priced into the stock.
There could be near-term factors that drive shares even higher, including the launch of Model X and continued positive reception of Tesla's energy solution. The firm adds, however, that, "Nonetheless, based on our current valuation framework there is insufficient upside to support a continued Buy recommendation."
This analyst action on Tesla — downgrading the rating on the stock with a bullish forecast for the company — is similar to something we saw Bank of America Merrill Lynch do last week.

On Thursday, BAML lifted its price target 177% to $180 from $65 but maintained an "Underperform" rating on shares.

 

[Earlian]

Perhaps they try to create the last entrance for their customers, before the explosion.

 

[Intl Professor]

Recently there have been many who hope for some kind of bombshell innovation when the Model X is revealed. Unless there is something related to an increase to battery size, I expect none. They will do well to get a vehicle as outstanding as the Model S. There should be a sizable bump just because of the event and expectations of sales.

 

[Chickenlittle]

That means someone just bet $333,984 that TSLA would be at or near $330/share before August 21st, 2015. That's quite a large out of the money bet.

Not really. Significant up move and these can be sold for profit without reaching that price before expiration

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Recently there have been many who hope for some kind of bombshell innovation when the Model X is revealed. Unless there is something related to an increase to battery size, I expect none. They will do well to get a vehicle as outstanding as the Model S. There should be a sizable bump just because of the event and expectations of sales.

The Model X will be extremely successful irrespective of what new features it has. An SUV even remotely similar to the Model X costs at least $150,000 - $300,000 in many countries. The total addressable market for a $75,000 - $125,000 Model X is much larger than anyone is acknowledging, and is probably 30-40% of people in the market for an SUV, anyone looking to buy a Tesla, and anyone looking to buy the safest and probably most efficient SUV on the road, in addition to those looking for the latest and greatest technology money can buy.

 

[electracity]

Recently there have been many who hope for some kind of bombshell innovation when the Model X is revealed. Unless there is something related to an increase to battery size, I expect none. They will do well to get a vehicle as outstanding as the Model S. There should be a sizable bump just because of the event and expectations of sales.

Plus model S 2.0, which isn't reflected in the stock price.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Don't forget Roadster 3.0.

 

[electracity]

Don't forget Roadster 3.0.

Let's place a virtual bet. You are predicting roadster 3.0 with the model X reveal. I am predicting a significant mod S refresh.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

http://www.foundry-planet.com/equip...plete/?cHash=173e48e4e5be643cabc50a4942f45bf5

01. July 2015

CARSON CITY — The first building phase of Tesla’s massive battery factory being constructed in Northern Nevada is nearly complete, a legislative panel was told Thursday.

But the 900,000-square-foot building represents just 14 percent of the total size of the factory at build-out.

“That building will be seven times larger once fully constructed,” Steve Hill, director of the Governor’s Office of Economic Development, told members of the Legislative Commission.

The commission reviewed a quarterly report that Tesla Motors, an electric car manufacturing company headed by billionaire Elon Musk, is required to provide as part of a $1.3 billion package of tax incentives negotiated by Gov. Brian Sandoval and approved by lawmakers during a special legislative session in the fall to lure the factory to Nevada.

The next step will be bringing in and setting up manufacturing equipment.

“They built the building,” Hill said. “They will be starting to move machinery into that building in order to make batteries relatively soon.”

Hill said the project is progressing at a speed even faster than anticipated by Tesla and Panasonic, joint partners in the $5 billion plant rising from the desert in the sprawling Tahoe-Reno Industrial Center 20 miles east of Reno in Storey County.

Once completed, it will be the largest building in the world, with a footprint of 5.8 million square feet and two-stories of manufacturing space for a total of about 10 million square feet, Hill said.

And it could get even bigger, possibly doubling in size, following Tesla’s recent announcement of a new unit to produce stationary energy storage units for use in homes and businesses that can store solar-generated electricity for use when the sun goes down or doesn’t shine.

Hill noted that Musk commented on an earnings report conference call that the company was looking at possibly expanding the size of the Nevada plant by as much as 50 percent to 100 percent.

In the first quarter of 2015, Tesla spent $80 million on the project, bringing total investment since mid-October to $143 million. Hill said the company had made earlier investments before then that were not included in the total.

There were 320 construction workers employed at the site in the first quarter, and 70 percent of them were Nevadans, Hill said....

 

[Lump]

 

[MikeC]

View attachment 86686

Not sure what that means. Hopefully, guidance of 110,000 for 2016?

 

[SteveG3]

Not sure what that means. Hopefully, guidance of 110,000 for 2016?

Given Elon's past comments about expecting the Model X to do as well to a little better than the S (his extrapolation of SUVs generally do a little better than sedans), I think he's saying whatever global demand for the S is, X will add the same. I read that as a pretty strong showing as it implies any cannibalization between the products would be offset by the demand of a well received X.