Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Curt Renz]

What exactly is wrong with the basic premise of this article?

Except for minor omissions (cheaper Model X versions supposedly coming in 2016 after current $132-142k versions; base Model3 only advertised for 200+ miles, not 300...) this article sums up the major problem(s) at Tesla very well imho:

Over-promise and under-deliver (and delivering that too late).

Until / Unless Tesla one day ships the Model3 as promised for around $35k in large numbers and generates positive cash-flows by then, this last sentence from the article does sum up Tesla's state:

You say in your meager profile that you are located in "Departed". Why are you keeping your true location a secret? Are you a hedge fund manager?

 

[FredTMC]

Market rebound nicely after initial FOMC decision.

News still hasn't broke about MX production starting.

I suspect we will see more owners confirm thru their DS that cars are in production in the next few days.

Once the market realizes that production has begun I think we will see some relief rally heading into Earnings call.

 

[hershey101]

You say in your meager profile that you are located in "Departed". Why are you keeping your true location a secret? Are you a hedge fund manager?

Ok Curt, I value your opinion but you have repeated this twice. Who cares what his location status says... Maybe he thought "Departed" was funny when he made the profile... There is no reason anyone would choose to hide their location, especially considering you can easily identify what IPs they come from. He could say "New York". "NY" etc. but that's so generic! "Departed" on the other hand helps you remember the guy.... "Oh.. tftf.. that guy who is departed? I know/remember him..." you get the point.
Seriously people on these fourms are such fanboys. Tesla is great and all but they do have a serious over-promise/under deliver problem. I dont agree with all of the mashtable article, but that last sentence, in isolation, seems like a reasonable criticism of the company..

This is not directed at Curt but:
Statements like "dont feed the trolls" are as bad as the trolls' arguments. Seriously people either should say something useful to say or not say anything at all. No one is forcing you to post.

- - - Updated - - -

Market rebound nicely after initial FOMC decision. News still hasn't broke about MX production starting. I suspect we will see more owners confirm thru their DS that cars are in production in the next few days. Once the market realizes that production has begun I think we will see some relief rally heading into Earnings call.

Hope so, $220 would be a good price to get out of my medium term calls, and would make the puts cheap enough to buy a few more.

 

[JRP3]

My new mantra these days is "don't feed the trolls."

But they are so cute, and fun to play with :smile:

 

[MikeC]

But they are so cute, and fun to play with :smile:

And so darn hungry! When I see bears coming to TMC and posting confidently, it makes me think we're near a bottom. I'm bullish on the ER purely because sentiment is so low right now.

 

[tftf]

I asked a simple (serious) question for specifics since the linked Mashable article was ridiculed by other posters.

What exactly is missing?

I pointed out two minor issues with the article myself but I think its basic premise is very valid (that is until/unless Tesla ships the Model 3 in large numbers one day and generates cash-flows by then, see my previous comment):

Tesla has growing troubles matching its announcements with delivery (over promise, under deliver) imho.

We will see how the markets react when quarterly numbers make that gap more and more obvious (for example, missing delivery numbers in 2015 and/or lowering the outlook for 2016 due to delayed PowerWall and X shipments...).

While most (bullish) analysts lowered EPS estimates again, basically none of them bothered to adjust their PTs so far (or they lowered them cosmetically only, not adequate to the EPS cuts).

 

[JRP3]

What exactly is wrong with the basic premise of this article?

How about this:

Tesla hasn't really done much of any subsequence in the three years since the debut of the first Model S

Hmm, let's see, SC network, endless awards and praise for the vehicles, constant updates and improvements, gigafactory, stationary storage, the D cars, autopilot, increasing range, causing the other OEM's to scramble to up their EV game...just to name a few.

We can also talk about the author's complete misunderstanding of how other OEM's would partner with Tesla on the SC network.

I wonder, however, if this was a ploy for Tesla to cut its monthly power bill. Regardless of the rationale, it's not the kind of request from a company that's totally confident it's ready to invite non-Tesla EV owners to juice up whenever they want. If it can't even support its current network of owners, how can it support others?

Of course they would be required to chip in to further expand the network.

Then there is this gem:

According to Tesla's representatives, the pilot program is still only offered in one location

Right. Bolded section might just give a clue.

I'll end with this one, letting it "stand" on it's own:

Then there are the additional models added to the Model S line that serve no real advantage other than to generate press attention.

So much wrong with the article it can almost be taken apart line by line.

 

[Newb]

Seriously people on these fourms are such fanboys. Tesla is great and all but they do have a serious over-promise/under deliver problem. I dont agree with all of the mashtable article, but that last sentence, in isolation, seems like a reasonable criticism of the company..

First of all, this is not the right thread for that - we have a dedicated thread for discussions on such articles.

Second, it's simply increasingly annoying (and therefore I'm with Curt and papafox on this) that such posts as the last one from tftf distract from the very valuable short-term price development discussions. If tftf had some meaningful contribution to the short-term price development, nobody would call him a troll. That simple.

Third, if you'd like to discuss the mashable article, let's move this to the abovementioned thread and I'm quite sure there'll be many people ready to tear apart every single paragraph of this piece, especially the empty last sentence you regard as a "reasonable criticism of the company".

 

[austinEV]

Such an obvious buying opportunity folks... You can never time the bottom perfectly, but on technicals alone you can say this is near the bottom of it's multiyear channel. Q3/4 '15 has a perfect storm of negative sentiments, and Q1/2 of '16 will have a perfect storm of positive ones.

 

[tftf]

I'll end with this one, letting it "stand" on it's own:

(...)

So much wrong with the article it can almost be taken apart line by line.

I think we have to quote the entire section in the article to get the context:

Then there are the additional models added to the Model S line that serve no real advantage other than to generate press attention. The P90D with Ludicrous mode, for example, while neat, doesn't further the brand or EVs as a whole. Instead of adding another electric motor to the car, thereby increasing performance, Tesla could have spent those R&D funds to increase range or address known issues, like reliability.

These 0-60 figures and similar gadgets are nice to impress other (rich) people and show off the car (nothing wrong with that), but they offer no real value (especially since Tesla cars overheat on a racing track after one or two laps).

While Tesla keeps talking about the cheaper Model3 they actually increased the sticker prices of their fleet in 2015 - especially since the lower-end Model X variants won't ship until later in 2016 (and no specifics are known, this could become H2 2016 or later...).

The Model X launch gremlins since late 2013 (two full years !) reiterate that Tesla still has major execution and timing issues. This really doesn't bode well for the promised "Model 3 by 2017 at $35k" launch imho.

I didn't criticize Tesla for the Model S or Roadster launch. It was a different company with a small market cap back in mid-2012 (or even on the verge of bk well before the IPO during the Roadster launch in 2008-2009). But the Model X launch in 2015 at well beyond (diluted) $30bn in market cap shows serious issues for a company valued at about 50% of GM and other established car companies.

Tesla still has to prove it can make a car at

- a base price of just $35k (as the article correctly points out, Tesla is far away from that ASP: "the average transaction price of a Model S is $93,000, which far higher most automakers. For reference, the car industry's average transaction price is $32,386")
- reliably in large numbers (it's harder to pump out a large number of "cheap" cars reliably than a small batch of high-end cars, as strange as this may sound at first. Toyota is one of the very few companies able to have perfected this over many years)
- and at a profit (especially once the EV segment at $30-50k becomes very crowded by around 2020 with constant rebates etc.).

Until then I think this article's premise is spot on.

PS: Please move the discussion if needed. I didn't post the Mashable article in this thread, I just replied to the discussion.

 

[Newb]

And so darn hungry! When I see bears coming to TMC and posting confidently, it makes me think we're near a bottom. I'm bullish on the ER purely because sentiment is so low right now.

Let's not mistake trolls for bears. I think we're all perfectly fine with TSLA bears or bearish sentiment. Trolls don't come up with cases and detailed argumentation. Trolls just come in to the wrong thread and say "Tesla is making toys for the rich", "Tesla is overhyped"...

 

[Papafox]

Such an obvious buying opportunity folks... You can never time the bottom perfectly, but on technicals alone you can say this is near the bottom of it's multiyear channel. Q3/4 '15 has a perfect storm of negative sentiments, and Q1/2 of '16 will have a perfect storm of positive ones.

Be careful out there... there could be a lot of turmoil going into this ER. But therefore, also a lot of opportunity. If you are playing the short term, I believe you can lose money in this market whether you are long or short TSLA. I couldn't even hazard to guess which direction to put new money if one was investing in TSLA ahead of ER. However, I think we are very likely higher than here in early 2016. Can the bears make a lot of money in between? Yes. But the problem for the bears is that time works against them. We have a number of catalysts - Tesla Energy product revenue, Model X shipping, new markets, Model 3 reveal, Gigafactory opening, and so forth all within the next 6 months.

The options pricing is sky high in both directions right now, so even if you guessed the right direction, you might lose anyways as the IV drops or any number of other scenarios that screw everyone but the market makers.

The worst case scenario for Tesla right now is actually not as dire as one had possibly thought it would be from 9 months ago. That's because they already raised capital to the tune of $700 million. So they have plenty of capital even with the Model X delay to early 2016. The worst case now is 2015 annual deliveries at 45-48k vehicles with continued high capex spend for expansion. It's not that bad from a numbers perspective, at least relative to other quarters. But the sentiment is the big issue as Tesla is really having some execution problems combined with the active FUD campaigns from anti-Tesla factions. Once they start delivering some of these things, we won't remember them all that well in hindsight, just like most of us don't remember the fall of 2012 execution problems all that well. Some of us, obviously, have that seared in their memories.

At the moment, I'm slightly bearish going into ER. We don't know how much of the worst case scenario is already built into the current stock price. I think the long term story is still intact, but has taken some body blows which are mostly self induced. There was no reason to make the Model X the most difficult car to build in the world. I am looking forward to buying TSLA on sale if comes to that.

I tip my hat to both AustinEV and Techmaven for sharing their perspectives. This is one ER that is creating great stress in this forum. Those who have lightened their holdings going into the ER are nervous because they are rethinking whether they have lightened too much or not enough. Those going into the ER with heavy loads of stock and options are nervous because of the very real possibility of an ER dip. I respect both opinions.

We have some members of this forum who usually make negative comments regarding TSLA but have offered valuable information in the past. I tip my hat to these members too. As for people who come here solely to try manipulating emotions because they have an agenda, I continue with my mantra, "don't feed the trolls."

 

[Svetlin]

Oh whatever, Tesla does overpromise and underdeliver. So what. Tie this into your valuation, post your numbers here and make a case how much TSLA should be worth.

Edit: I hope this post ends up in some other thread, along with tftf's posts.

 

[AlMc]

Oh whatever, Tesla does overpromise and underdeliver. So what. Tie this into your valuation, post your numbers here and make a case how much TSLA should be worth.

Edit: I hope this post ends up in some other thread, along with tftf's posts.

Several other here, including me, have asked for this type of information. It would be good to continue the discussion with some TSLA projections by @tftf. Maybe they belong in another thread (Long Term?) but regardless of where they are posted it would further the conversation.

Personally, I don't consider tftf a troll. He is very bearish and repeats many of the bear arguments. So what? Let him. I think it is good to have your ideas challenged. If you are comfortable with your own research/opinion..who cares? If you don't like him/her..put him on the ignore list.

I don't agree with many of his posts/arguments but one thing I have come to accept: EM/TM does have some 'timeline issues'. EM has admitted this himself.

 

[sub]

The problem with these particular bear arguments is they are tired. Ok, we get it, toys for the rich that Tesla loses money selling. These are just a couple of them, we all know the list. If I were tftf I would be embarrassed to be parroting these arguments repeatedly, but I guess simple minds don't get bored with repitition.

nobody responded to my "spot the lie" from the article regarding tesla supercharging. The lie was that Tesla sent letters to those few owners who were using supercharging for LOCAL travel which is not what it is marketed (free LONG DISTANCE travel) or intended for. Either the author is ignorant like or lying, just like tftf. I don't care which. I stopped reading after the first couple sentences and simply scanned for the same arguments as always and that's all I found.

as for the ER/CC, I'm not touching my position. I'm about 50/50 with shares and J17 leaps in two acts with only one March call. I have zero doubt in tesla medium to long term, I would not touch this ER with weeklies but at the same
time I'm not wasting money on "insurance" either since I'm extremely confident TSLA will reach ATH in 2016.

 

[Drax7]

Elon will always be late I figure. Manufacturing is complex, Elon is a perfectionist, and the combination
makes for always being late. He will always come through , but always late.

 

[demetri]

Just received sig vin 774!!!!! Looks like we are going to get US sig's out by the end of year. I hope call moves us higher next week. We should see early sig's out this week or early next week, hopefully before call. :biggrin::biggrin:

 

[Papafox]

Just received sig vin 774!!!!! Looks like we are going to get US sig's out by the end of year. I hope call moves us higher next week. We should see early sig's out this week or early next week, hopefully before call. :biggrin::biggrin:

Demetri, congrats on the Model X vin! Would you be so kind as to refresh us on how you judge the timetable between assignment of VIN and delivery date?

 

[everman]

I'll also keep you all posted on my friend who has a sig in the low 400's. I'll let you all know the second he gets a delivery date, or "In Production" notice.

Edit: To clarify, his VIN is in the low 400's.

 

[Johan]

You say in your meager profile that you are located in "Departed". Why are you keeping your true location a secret? Are you a hedge fund manager?

He's in Switzerland. So he must be Abgereist/Partito/Defunt as they say in their three languages .

And no, he's no hedge fund manager, just a guy who likes to post a lot on Twitter, Seeking Alpha and in the comment section of any and every site that writes about Tesla and TSLA. He suffers from a severe case of confirmation bias, almost as bad as ours (but going in the opposite direction). Well, let's wait another 3 years and the stock price will tell us who was right and who was wrong. According to his latest SA article regarding TSLA (January of this year) he holds a short position.