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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Yeah with TSLA it usually pays to straddle the morning after the ER due to the volatility collapse and the usual large swings right after. But you are looking at trading within a 30 minutes time frame.
McMuggets
Member
News about the hack coming out today scared a lot of regular folks. The articles make it sound like the Model S was hacked to a standstill from outside the car and only briefly mention (if at all) the fact that the hack needs to be done via a connected ethernet cable from INSIDE the car. Also, that Tesla has already patched all of our cars. Knee jerk reaction triggering a lot of stop-loss orders.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Gerasimental
Member
I don't believe we're heading as low as many here are saying. The long term story simply hasn't changed enough, and I believe that enough Tesla investors can clearly see this. Perhaps some short dips down as we see strong longs loading up at bargain prices in preparation for imminent catalysts and what promises to be a much smoother year in 2016, but I can't see the stock staying depressed below its current level for long periods of time with the catalysts we see coming up.
I see more rollercoaster behaviour into 2016 though as the cash burn/capital raise question becomes more prominent, MX ramp and delivery numbers might disappoint (nothing more than a hunch), while on the bull side 3 is revealed, GF starts production, and Tesla Energy revenues starts to really flow. Tesla investors seem unable to take a time-averaged view of such a series of events, instead knee-jerking at each one.
I see more rollercoaster behaviour into 2016 though as the cash burn/capital raise question becomes more prominent, MX ramp and delivery numbers might disappoint (nothing more than a hunch), while on the bull side 3 is revealed, GF starts production, and Tesla Energy revenues starts to really flow. Tesla investors seem unable to take a time-averaged view of such a series of events, instead knee-jerking at each one.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Incorrect. Shares in a corporation are not fiat currency.
When a government prints money and injects it into the economy, it isn't creating anything (no services or goods produced). The pie isn't expanded, but the # of divisions is expanded.
When investors buy newly created shares in a company, the company uses the capital to create goods and/or services. The company should grow, if managed properly, therefore expanding the pie in proportion to expanded number of shares.
Gerasimental
Member
In Iran, no twitter. Please relieve me of my pain and share the content of the link!
Gerasimental
Member
Not being able to open the link and reading these is just torture. Any help?
hockeythug
Active Member
Coolest thing I have seen in a while.
Can't repost yet but it's literally... a metal gear solid like snake charging cale plugging itself into the model S.
Maybe Elon should make more jokes. He was kidding about this...
You actually have a metal snake as a charger that looks like the spine of a terminator, standing vertically until it notices the Model S has the charge port open, than makes its move and docks. No wires or any visible structure moving it, it`s standalone, coming out of a small box. Looks like a metal worm.
I am just glad this is not April 1st as it would totally go for a prank. Looks like something from a sci-fi. Pretty cool.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Time for a little Blind Faith
Rev. Jim says it's time to have a little Blind Faith.
Long-term investors need to ask themselves if we have learned anything that changes the prospects for Tesla to keep growing revenue at about 50% year for the next ten years while approach in 10% net income in that same timeframe. The ER was solid and the CC was sober. Execution over the next few quarters will critical. The Long Term Price Target we use in BFPT assumes hitting $9B in revenue in 2016 and $13.5B in 2017. Model X/S deliveries in range of 80k to 90k puts $9B in range, especially considering that Model X will likely draw a higher ASP than Model S. Additionally another $400 to $500 M in Tesla Energy products adds a level of comfort to the 2016 revenue target.
How about $13.5B in 2017? Model X/S deliveries should be in range of 120k to 140k, or in revenue $12B to $14B. TE products should come on strong in range of $2B to $5B. So 2017 combined revenue could be in range of $14B to $19B. This gives me pretty good confidence that the target of $13.5B will be hit.
So the revenue assumptions behind out Blind Faith Price Targets do not call for revision. The caution expressed in this ER cycle actually reinforces that Tesla knows what it must do to keep driving toward the LTPT. Indeed we want Tesla to be realistic, clear headed and focused on execution.
So where does Blind Faith put us with respect to the $240 prices Mr Market is offering today. Well, the median sentiment price level today is $270 and first quartile sentiment at $245. Thus, we have an incredible opportunity to buy in the first quartile, bearish sentiment. Moreover median BFPT for 8/5/2016 and 1/20/2017 are $347 and $390, respectively. So looking out past the difficult next few quarter, we should return median sentiment, which has substantial upside to today's price. Rev. Jim says, Make sure you have a ticket to ride this train.
All the best, jhm
Rev. Jim says it's time to have a little Blind Faith.
Long-term investors need to ask themselves if we have learned anything that changes the prospects for Tesla to keep growing revenue at about 50% year for the next ten years while approach in 10% net income in that same timeframe. The ER was solid and the CC was sober. Execution over the next few quarters will critical. The Long Term Price Target we use in BFPT assumes hitting $9B in revenue in 2016 and $13.5B in 2017. Model X/S deliveries in range of 80k to 90k puts $9B in range, especially considering that Model X will likely draw a higher ASP than Model S. Additionally another $400 to $500 M in Tesla Energy products adds a level of comfort to the 2016 revenue target.
How about $13.5B in 2017? Model X/S deliveries should be in range of 120k to 140k, or in revenue $12B to $14B. TE products should come on strong in range of $2B to $5B. So 2017 combined revenue could be in range of $14B to $19B. This gives me pretty good confidence that the target of $13.5B will be hit.
So the revenue assumptions behind out Blind Faith Price Targets do not call for revision. The caution expressed in this ER cycle actually reinforces that Tesla knows what it must do to keep driving toward the LTPT. Indeed we want Tesla to be realistic, clear headed and focused on execution.
So where does Blind Faith put us with respect to the $240 prices Mr Market is offering today. Well, the median sentiment price level today is $270 and first quartile sentiment at $245. Thus, we have an incredible opportunity to buy in the first quartile, bearish sentiment. Moreover median BFPT for 8/5/2016 and 1/20/2017 are $347 and $390, respectively. So looking out past the difficult next few quarter, we should return median sentiment, which has substantial upside to today's price. Rev. Jim says, Make sure you have a ticket to ride this train.
All the best, jhm
Gerasimental
Member
Thanks aznt and mrdoubleb. That does look and sound extremely cool. I get your reactions. Can't wait to get home and watch this myself.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Here is a pic from the video:
Looks like a spacecraft docking with mothership to suck some electrons.
Does this metal snake need the more flexible thinner liquid cooled cable?
Just imagine a future SuperCharger roll out.
You'll no longer need to plug your Tesla in at a SuperCharger.
With this new charging cable SuperCharging could be triggered automatically.
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What I want to know is why publish this hacking article today, this morning? Why not yesterday, or tomorrow, or some other week? Timing seems impeccable to spread FUD (hacking only possible when physically connected to car, which is obvious for any car) on top of the other FUD on the ER about the indirectly implied reduced guidance of 50-55k (which was overblown with several articles published with over-sensationalized headlines).
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