Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Johan]

In Iran, no twitter. Please relieve me of my pain and share the content of the link!

It's basically Tesla porn: an erect metallic segmented shiny metallic robotic snake arm with a charger head bends and then slowly inserts itself in to the port of a shiny red Model S.

 

[hockeythug]

What I want to know is why publish this hacking article today, this morning? Why not yesterday, or tomorrow, or some other week? Timing seems impeccable to spread FUD (hacking only possible when physically connected to car, which is obvious for any car) on top of the other FUD on the ER about the indirectly implied reduced guidance of 50-55k (which was overblown with several articles published with over-sensationalized headlines).

Def Con hacking conference started today. This will be presented on Friday.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Watch Tesla plug itself into a Model S | The Verge

 

[Causalien]

Heh I want that snake. Feels like it could be used for more potential applications though.

 

[Lump]

Was anyone successful using a option straddle that would share details. I would like to learn from this experience from others. Terrible day to see TSLA drop this much.

6 weeks ago I had I high confidence in volatility, SP was ~$263 so I started with a Straddle then added a Strangle, the stock shot up to $280 so both trades were green, then SP dropped to ~260...then pooped back to just under $280 so I bought another Strangle expecting MX hype to push it to new ATH's or negative news to drop again to the 250"s, its been a rollercoaster but after today all 3 are green. I am looking to add another Dec. Strangle down around $238.

Straddle\Strangles work with my view of Tesla & TSLA & the broader market but may not best for most around here.

 

[ggies07]

Watch Tesla plug itself into a Model S | The Verge

no fing way!?! haha, that is awesome. And it's awesome because Elon threw this comment out at that event (can't remember which one) and said he hadn't even told his team yet.....and here we have it. Love that they work on these side projects.

 

[tander]

So basically TSLA reported prudent and honest but all good news and is pretty much making another 99/100 consumer reports car and it drops 10%. I wonder how many years or decades it will be till a volatile day for tsla is like 3%, they'll probably be making transforming amphibious/flying cars that can jump on the hyperloop by then.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Heh I want that snake. Feels like it could be used for more potential applications though.

You may want to make sure that sentence is a lot less ambiguous. :biggrin:

 

[austinEV]

You may want to make sure that sentence is a lot less ambiguous. :biggrin:

I think it is perfectly clear what he meant!

 

[Causalien]

You may want to make sure that sentence is a lot less ambiguous. :biggrin:

It is written exactly the way it is supposed to sound like. You read what you wanted to read.

 

[gene]

^^^^^ Bonnie's gonna' have something to say about this for sure!

 

[Causalien]

Well end of class reunion for me. See you all at X reveal... Can I get an invite to the event?

 

[dmunjal]

Incorrect. Shares in a corporation are not fiat currency.

When a government prints money and injects it into the economy, it isn't creating anything (no services or goods produced). The pie isn't expanded, but the # of divisions is expanded.

When investors buy newly created shares in a company, the company uses the capital to create goods and/or services. The company should grow, if managed properly, therefore expanding the pie in proportion to expanded number of shares.

You could say the same thing about people investing the new dollars. Yes, those investments could pay off. But at the moment of printing dollars or capital raises, there is dilution.

 

[pGo]

Reposting since I wanted to get feedback here. What do people make of current Model S demand into next two quarters.
----
With lowered guidance (which I forecasted a possibility) I have more questions about current Model S demand. Tesla guided q3 at same as q2 that too after pulling two demand levers in matter of weeks. That was a bit weak IMO. For q4, if you assume the same Model S sales as q3 (Osborne effect in full swing ), they are left with 5500 Model X delivery in q4 to reach 50K (lowest of the new guidance) mark. I THINK THAT IS A TALL ORDER if you even slightly don't take Tesla by its words.

It looks like Tesla MUST beat handily q3 to achieve new lowered guidance.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

My wife read somewhere that Elon has scheduled a call today with analysts to discuss yesterday's ER. Does anyone have any more information?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Bloomberg just put out a BS hit piece, full of tons of false assertions and vague criticisms of Elon's comments from the conference call, that basically ignores or misrepresents everything positive from the conference call. The author basically insists Elon is lying, or misrepresenting just about everything.

Chief executive officer Elon Musk has continually underestimated just how challenging it is to scale up from a low-volume luxury car operation to higher-volume production. He told analysts that the forthcoming Model X is "one of the hardest vehicles in the world" to develop and produce. That is a very naive statement: any automotive engineer can tell you that a compact sedan that sells millions of units each year will always be more of an engineering and production challenge than a six-figure vehicle produced in the low volumes"

Chief executive officer Elon Musk has continually underestimated just how challenging it is to scale up from a low-volume luxury car operation to higher-volume production. He told analysts that the forthcoming Model X is "one of the hardest vehicles in the world" to develop and produce. That is a very naive statement: any automotive engineer can tell you that a compact sedan that sells millions of units each year will always be more of an engineering and production challenge than a six-figure vehicle produced in the low volumes. And though Musk spoke to the challenges of dealing with "thousands of suppliers," he predicted that moving from 55,000 units per year in 2015 to over 500,000 units per year in 2020 would be easier than scaling from zero production to current levels.

This is nonsense. Supply chain and production issues multiply vastly as production volumes rise. Mass-market customers are actually far less forgiving than luxury or early-adopter types. Competition will get tougher and margins will compress as Tesla the luxury brand becomes Tesla the mass-market brand. Musk's breezy dismissal of the challenges associated with scaling up betrays his weak grasp on the brutal realities of manufacturing, even as those challenges push Tesla behind schedule at one-tenth the volume it is targeting in five short years.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-06/tesla-has-to-start-acting-like-a-car-company

 

[The Blue Owl]

Bloomberg just put out a BS hit piece, full of tons of false assertions and vague criticisms of Elon's comments from the conference call, that basically regards everything positive from the conference call. The author basically insists Elon is lying, or misrepresenting just about everything.



http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-06/tesla-has-to-start-acting-like-a-car-company

I read the same article and I got a different impression. He doesn't say Elon is lying or misrepresenting, but rather that he is naive and underestimates the challenges of scaling up manufacturing. The article is critical of Musk, yes, but it didn't strike me as unfair.

I, for one, have trust in Tesla and I think they will succeed, but I can see how reasonable people can disagree on this one. This stuff is hard.

 

[replicant]

He told analysts that the forthcoming Model X is "one of the hardest vehicles in the world" to develop and produce. That is a very naive statement: any automotive engineer can tell you that a compact sedan that sells millions of units each year will always be more of an engineering and production challenge than a six-figure vehicle produced in the low volumes.

How can he assimilates the Model X with a compact sedan? I doubt this guy even know what the Model X is.

 

[The Blue Owl]

How can he assimilates the Model X with a compact sedan? I doubt this guy even know what the Model X is.

He doesn't assimilate it, he contrasts it with a compact sedan. He's making the point that making a low-cost Corolla at high volumes is harder than making a luxury Model X at low volumes. I don't know much about manufacturing, so I don't know if this is true, but it's at least plausible.

It's easy to see malice in every critical opinion when you are down, but it's not useful.

 

[emupilot]

Was anyone successful using a option straddle that would share details. I would like to learn from this experience from others. Terrible day to see TSLA drop this much.

I've done spreadsheets looking for ways to play the ER, and it seems like the options premium just makes it really hard to make money reliably on a short-term play. I've fallen back on easy money - I unload my short-term options and then sell DOTM covered calls right before ER and then capitalize on the drop in volatility. In this case it was 8/14 $285s for which I got $525 each.

The market reaction seems justified for me - I'm waiting for an overreaction or a few days for things to calm down before I get more long-term options.