I think it should be possible at this point or sometime soon at the tail end of the Model X ramp spend, to calculate how much money Tesla needs to spend in capex.
Certainly, just taking Tesla's previous few quarters of capex spend and just applying it forward belies too simplistic of an assessment and is often used as a bear's argument, similar taking the capex spent so far and applying it to the sold Model S's. That's used to as a specious argument to try to talk down the stock price and snares some gullible people. Hence the push back you are getting.
It should be possible to characterize the Tesla Gigafactory phase 1 spend, the Model X spend, and the ongoing Supercharger build out spend. Add to it the Service Centers and so forth. The Gigafactory phase 1 spend is almost over and Panasonic and other vendor's spending ramps up. Tesla could continue to spend on phase 2 immediately, or they could hold off. The Model X spend is almost over and some of that spend includes Model 3 spend (paint shop). The Supercharger spend is roughly 5% of capex so far and is probably relatively steady state, adjusted down as necessary to make quarterly numbers. The incentive program is being used right now to figure out how many more Galleries to build, especially in areas where it might be difficult to justify. Plus, lobbying politicians is expensive, so maybe they don't take that approach and just do the incentive program until there is sufficient groundswell/grass roots. It is certainly possible that in Q4 and through sometime in 2016, Tesla's capex spend can drop dramatically.
I ran the numbers before and I'll have to go through the SEC reports again and run the numbers again with new information. However, Tesla doesn't *need* billions in capex all at once. Stationary storage might make the difference between *need* and *want*. It might be slow enough that the free cash flow would be sufficient in 2016. However, I believe Tesla wants to do a capital raise to increase velocity. It would make sense to create a battery pack assembly plant somewhere in Asia, maybe near the existing Panasonic Osaka factories where they get cell output already. That way, battery packs bound for Asia and some of Europe's never needs to go through the U.S. The shipping alone might make it worth doing that. If the Model 3 design is ready earlier than later (remember, it's a less tech intensive, less new development intensive vehicle) then it would make sense to raise to build out the tooling in Fremont ahead of free cash flow. If stationary storage demand is sufficient, then starting phase 2 of the Gigafactory as soon as possible might make a lot of sense. You have to spend money to make money, and thus these are positives, but the bears will spin this as negative.
