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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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I read people for a living. I investigate for a living. Elon and the CFO's answer to a capital raise was super weak. It was almost a dead give away. I am not the only one from the forum who believes this. The pre-market action reflects this. It is now just a matter of what the offering price will be imho. They have created a self fulfilling prophecy. That is the problem with being a publicly traded company. You have to answer questions and be accountable for your answers. I will be purchasing shares during the equity raise (double the amount I recently sold) as I continue to believe Tesla is the best company on the planet and has the brightest future of all. If will buy in by the spring of 2016 or if/when SP hits $300.00.
Agreed, but what about this. (totally wild speculation) What if what they aren't giving away is that Google is set to make a big investment as Tesla will be providing the cars for their self-driving car fleet? So far Tesla has only been playing catch-up in the autonomous driving space. Elon did make a comment about getting to fully autonomous cars sooner than he thought, but what if that isn't Tesla's technology. What if he has seen the steady progress of Google's technology and that is where that comment is from. Google needs to figure out how to make their robo-taxis. And, of course, this wild speculation is in thanks to the other question Elon declined to comment on regarding Uber.
 
Agreed, but what about this. (totally wild speculation) What if what they aren't giving away is that Google is set to make a big investment as Tesla will be providing the cars for their self-driving car fleet? So far Tesla has only been playing catch-up in the autonomous driving space. Elon did make a comment about getting to fully autonomous cars sooner than he thought, but what if that isn't Tesla's technology. What if he has seen the steady progress of Google's technology and that is where that comment is from. Google needs to figure out how to make their robo-taxis. And, of course, this wild speculation is in thanks to the other question Elon declined to comment on regarding Uber.


Anything is possible and there are companies no doubt salivating at the thoughts of becoming a partner. Good thinking!
 
1. I have the strong impression that today some reactions here are overblown.
This ER was not disastrous and it was not awesome that's for sure.
Tesla was able to deliver more than 500 vehicles more in Q2 than guided.
Some items are simply on track (like Model X first deliveries) or a tiny bit late (like Model X configurator or Model X ramp) while others are ahead of schedule (like Gigafactory).
2. Sometimes it is just too easy to see that some people have a hidden agenda.
Do these people really think no one is able to see through their agenda?
It is just too obvious!
This is not carnival or Mardi Gras here.

Everybody have a nice day!
 
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1. I have the strong impression that some reactions here are overblown. This ER was not disatrous and it was not awesome, a lot of items are simply on track or a tiny bit late.
2. Sometimes it is just too easy to see that some people have a hidden agenda. Do these people really think no one is able to see through their agenda? This is not carnival or Mardi Gras here.
Everybody have a nice day!

Thanks for being kind :) Probably directed at me. I continue to be a bull and have my doubts it will drop any more than 10%. Guy Adami says #225.00 and he has a good track record. I am taking a big risk by sitting on the sidelines. Uselesslogin's comments above point to some of my fear - there is always great news right around the corner which can easily cause a 10% pop. I am no less bullish than before. If they raise capital successfully, even more bullish. We have to remember a 10% correction is to be expected with such a volitile stock. It may rebound 15% tomorrow. I continue to believe that $265.00 is the tipping point. If the bulls can get it to there, there will be no stopping Tesla this time around. A multibagger on the order of 10X is highly likely.
 


1....2....3.... fixed by Tesla already and fix being remotely delivered to all cars as we speak. As it happens I received an update this morning.

http://www.wired.com/2015/08/researchers-hacked-model-s-teslas-already/

"Mahaffey says other car companies should follow Tesla’s lead.
Regardless of the issues found with the Model S, he still considers it “the most secure car that we’ve seen.”

Compare that with the Headache for Fiat Crysler recalling 1.4M cars !
For me just further confirmation of Tesla's lead.

I am very curious what will happen at market open and have cash ready.
 
I think a lot of shorts will be taking their profits today. Let it shake out. We all know the deal.

In re: software issue -- it was 5mph? I mean come on and a patch was already released today.

TBH we all know this is a non-issue.
They already informed the press some days ago.
They neededa priori access to the vehicle.
They needed to stay physically connected via ethernet cable.
They could not do this at a speed greater 5mi/hr as above that speed there is a safe shut down procedure (and even at speeds under 5mi/hr car remains in save condition).
They are not criminals and want Tesla to strengthen their security for their vehicle software architecture even more.
A patch is already developed and available.
Questions?
 
TBH we all know this is a non-issue.
They already informed the press some days ago.
They neededa priori access to the vehicle.
They needed to stay physically connected via ethernet cable.
They could not do this at a speed greater 5mi/hr as above that speed there is a safe shut down procedure (and even at speeds under 5mi/hr car remains in save condition).
They are not criminals but want to help Tesla strengthen their security for their vehicle software architecture.
A patch is already developed and available.
Questions?

[FUD]
Yes I have a question: When will this put Tesla out of business?

(Also, if you have physical access and an ethernet cable plugged in in wouldn't necessarily call that hacking. It's like saying there's this big security flaw: If you have a giant lifte and flatbed you can steal a Tesla by lifting it on to the flatbed and driving off with it!)
 
TSLA 2014 Q4 Shareholder Letter

2015 Capital expenditures are expected to be about $1.5 billion

TSLA 2015 Q1 Shareholder Letter

We still plan to invest about $1.5 billion in capital expenditures this year

TSLA 2015 Q2 Shareholder Letter

We still plan to invest about $1.5 billion in capital expenditures this year

TMC Forum the day after ER call:

OMG!! They're spending money on CapEx!!!1!
 
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TSLA 2014 Q4 Shareholder Letter



TSLA 2015 Q1 Shareholder Letter



TSLA 2015 Q1 Shareholder Letter



TMC Forum the day after ER call:

OMG!! They're spending money on CapEx!!!1!

Yes, most people who don't understand businesses who build things and the concept of cash spend will use this as a headline to down TSLA. There's a lot of importance with that revolving credit line and the fact that all internally generated cash flows are going into even more capitally intensive projects that can magnify the cash inflows in the future. They also think it's like a $1.5B check written immediately... it's not. There's full control on this kind of spend.
 
TSLA 2014 Q4 Shareholder Letter



TSLA 2015 Q1 Shareholder Letter



TSLA 2015 Q1 Shareholder Letter



TMC Forum the day after ER call:

OMG!! They're spending money on CapEx!!!1!

Thank you! This is what i have been trying to say a few pages earlier. I Just don't get people who are shocked and surprised by the capex. They have raised the money for this, guided for this every single time. Don't mean to sound rude, but why is someone a TSLA investor if they have a problem with this business plan?!
 
To be fair, it isn't so much that they are spending what they said they would spend, the concern is that they won't recoup those expenses as fast as they said because there is uncertainty about where the Model X ramp will happen.

I'm not worried about the spending, but I don't think it is fair to say they are just doing what they said but only look at the spending side.
 
[FUD]
Yes I have a question: When will this put Tesla out of business?

Johan, thank you very much for your post.

I think I have a possible answer: Never will this put Tesla out of business.
Other traditional car companies currently working on improving the way they bundle their derivate-specific in-car-software bundels to make them smaller (as they exceede GBs) and OTA-transferable and implement OTA updates as well as infrastructure for that. This will still take some time. Tesla is leading from the front here. Other car companies copy the solution implemented by Tesla.

(Also, if you have physical access and an ethernet cable plugged in in wouldn't necessarily call that hacking. It's like saying there's this big security flaw: If you have a giant lifte and flatbed you can steal a Tesla by lifting it on to the flatbed and driving off with it!)

Great comparison, thanks for the context.
Just like you steal planet earth you steal all Tesla Model Ss.
OMG they stole all Model Ss!
 
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