Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Larken]

Lift off please.

Looking strong pre-market (even though it's low volume), so hopefully that's a good sign.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Probably has something to do with Panasonic announcing it plans to speed up its investment in the Gigafactory.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/08/panasonic-autos-batteries-idUSL3N0YU31Z20150608

 

[Causalien]

Probably has something to do with Panasonic announcing it plans to speed up its investments in the Gigafactory.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015...31Z20150608?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews

Well, something's been up. And I suspect Elon is very close to the source of my 8 ball. No more super accurate prediction for the public now.

 

[MartinAustin]

Probably has something to do with Panasonic announcing it plans to speed up its investment in the Gigafactory.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/08/panasonic-autos-batteries-idUSL3N0YU31Z20150608

No doubt this will be discussed at the shareholders' meeting.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The real fun starts once it's clear who Tesla's partners will be, and how/when Tesla plans to ramp up production of the Model X and battery storage, and analysts stop underestimating Tesla. It's very convenient that may analysts are still saying battery storage won't be significant. No-one has commented on or attempted to quantify Elon's statement that Tesla will see material profits next year from battery storage.

Leo Denault, Ernest Moniz, Elon Musk, and JB Straubel will be speaking at 9:45 AM EST today, at EEI 2015. Anyone know if there will be a live stream?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Ben Kallo of Baird lifts his PT from $275 to $335.

Streetinsider's digest of the note:

Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and boosted his price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $335.00 (from $275.00) ahead of what is likely a string of positive catalysts."Although sentiment has improved over the past three months, we still believe there is skepticism surrounding Tesla Energy, the Model X launch, and demand," Kallo said. "We think upcoming events will help improve sentiment and drive shares higher."

The analyst said they would be building or adding to positions ahead, instead of trimming positions following the recent run-up. "We are raising our price target, in part, as a signal of our conviction level. Potential positive updates include TSLA's shareholder meeting (6/9), Q2 delivery announcement (early July), Model X launch (Q3), and Model 3 prototype (1H:16)."

They still find many skeptics on the timing of the X launch and they are still betting on a Q3 launch and want to own shares ahead and into the launch. "We think there is still skepticism TSLA will launch the Model X crossover during Q3, but we are betting they will convert despite previous delays. Successful launch of the X will do the following: (1) expand TSLA’s addressable market (2) reinforce confidence in its product development competencies (3) increase scale and (4) continue to build the brand."

Kallo said Tesla Energy is part of the recent stock move, but still much skepticism (and misinformation) is abound.
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.
Shares of Tesla Motors closed at $249.14 on Friday

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Does anyone have a copy of the full Baird report?

EEI's Twitter page says there will be a live stream on CNBC.com. Anyone have a link?

 

[AudubonB]

There's another kind of fundamental that has the potential of being nicely bullish for TSLA.

Stifel Asset Management has $19bn under management. They just announced they're purchasing the US portion of Barclays: http://www.streetinsider.com/Corpor...cquire+Barclays+Wealth+Americas/10631951.html , which has $56bn under management.

Now, a firm's asset managers aren't required to structure their clients' assets in lockstep with its affiliated analysts, but the tendency definitely is there. And we know what Stifel thinks of TSLA.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Analyst Recommendations: Ben Kallo/Baird raises PT from $275 to $335

Ben Kallo is raising his famous PT of $275 (last update was June 1) to $335. Have a look at the 12 average PT chart...we're now at $274...
Below you can read his main thoughts.

(source BBG:{NSN NPMMTY6JTSEC<Go>})

Baird: Tesla Shares Are About to Move Even Higher
2015-06-08 13:01:10.336 GMT
By Julie Verhage
(Bloomberg Business) -- Tesla shares have seen a pretty
good run up in 2015 after struggling towards the end of last
year. Shares are now up 12 percent year-to-date while the Nasdaq
is higher by about 7 percent and S&P 500 is up less than 2
percent. This has caused some on Wall Street to ask if the trend
can continue, and Baird says it can.
While firms like CLSA have been more skeptical, Baird
reiterated its outperform rating and boosted its price target to
$335 from $275 leading up to Tesla's shareholder meeting
tomorrow. In a note out this morning, the team of analysts led
by Ben Kallo think there's still time to buy shares before
another leg higher. The firm sees ongoing skepticism regarding
key products as a reason there's still value in the shares.
Here are the potential positive catalysts the firm touches
on in the note:
* The shareholder meeting tomorrow
* Second quarter delivery announcement, which Baird expects in
early July
* Model X launch, expected in the third quarter
* Model 3 prototype, which Baird in predicting for the first
half of 2016

Kallo and his team also discussed the skepticism and
"misinformation" they see as surrounding the stock. Much of the
investment thesis seems to revolve around the launch of the
Model X, which has seen delays. In the note, one of the key
factors that the team says will come with a successful launch of
the new vehicle is the expansion of Tesla's addressable market.
Sales of the Model X should be supported by growing market
for premium luxury SUVs. We estimate the U.S. market for premium
luxury SUVs to be ~235k vehicles, based on 2014 premium SUV
sales. We believe the large U.S. market will support sales of
the Model X as we think the vehicle will have better performance
and safety than many competing vehicles, similar to the Model S.
Kallo then looks back at what shares of Tesla did following
the launch of the Model S. It was quite the rise, as shares went
from from less than $30 a share to nearly $200.
Here's what Kallo had to say about it:
On 11/12/2012 the S received Motor Trend Car of the Year
award, and during 2013 TSLA scaled its production and delivered
22,477 vehicles (although many factors led to the rapid
appreciation of shares over this time). We are not claiming the
X will have this dramatic of an impact on shares, and obviously
shares appreciated over this timeframe as TSLA proved it could
ramp and sell its first vehicle produced in-house. We think,
however, it is worthwhile to highlight the impact of the
successful launch/reception/ramp of the Model S.

 

[JRP3]

Incredibly ignorant commentary from Bub Lutz, who actually says lead acid is better for grid storage, and that Elon would need to buy up all the lithium producing countries to really lower battery prices. It's almost as if he knows absolutely nothing about lithium batteries.

http://www.nbcnews.com/video/cnbc/57471698/#57471698

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Incredibly ignorant commentary from Bub Lutz, who actually says lead acid is better for grid storage, and that Elon would need to buy up all the lithium producing countries to really lower battery prices. It's almost as if he knows absolutely nothing about lithium batteries.

http://www.nbcnews.com/video/cnbc/57471698/#57471698

"Having batteries as storage has been around for hundreds of years. I can't understand the fascination with this."

Really Bob Lutz? Really?

Also, notice how he says countries not companies

 

[ggr]

We have liftoff, up nearly $7 in five minutes, and much above average volume. Shorts hurting.

 

[Larken]

Lift off, we have a Houston!

 

[Krugerrand]

Bob, who?

 

[aznt1217]

We have liftoff, up nearly $7 in five minutes, and much above average volume. Shorts hurting.

It's only 2.3%? (Granted, I am happy about it) This just looks like normal Post ER Drift.

 

[Gtoffo]

Bob, who?

I like the guy. But he's really acting like a sore loser here.... more class needed.

Looks like MOST analysts are now valuing Tesla at >300$? Am I correct Derek?

Not sure this is liftoff yet. I think there's some expectation of news from the shareholder's meeting... we might see a post event selloff if nothing new trickles out.

 

[Krugerrand]

I like the guy. But he's really acting like a sore loser here.... more class needed.

That's entirely possible and he sort of warrants that world perception of himself given some of the sentences that have come out of his mouth over the decades. I'm more inclined at this stage to think of it more as an age or generational thing. He is in his 80's now. As we age it can get harder to see change, accept change or understand change even though we've encountered it throughout our long lives. There is some truth in 'you can't teach an old dog new tricks' and some people are more resistant to ideas that turn their world upside down than others. I'm sure there's a lot of possible factors for his...uh, naive statement.

 

[eepic]

That's entirely possible and he sort of warrants that world perception of himself given some of the sentences that have come out of his mouth over the decades. I'm more inclined at this stage to think of it more as an age or generational thing. He is in his 80's now. As we age it can get harder to see change, accept change or understand change even though we've encountered it throughout our long lives. There is some truth in 'you can't teach an old dog new tricks' and some people are more resistant to ideas that turn their world upside down than others. I'm sure there's a lot of possible factors for his...uh, naive statement.

It's just odd given his prior experience in that area, like his championing of the (Li-ion) Volt program.

 

[ggies07]

That's entirely possible and he sort of warrants that world perception of himself given some of the sentences that have come out of his mouth over the decades. I'm more inclined at this stage to think of it more as an age or generational thing. He is in his 80's now. As we age it can get harder to see change, accept change or understand change even though we've encountered it throughout our long lives. There is some truth in 'you can't teach an old dog new tricks' and some people are more resistant to ideas that turn their world upside down than others. I'm sure there's a lot of possible factors for his...uh, naive statement.

Yep, an aging man who's world was centered around ICE vehicles or someone like JB who's been tinkering with batteries since he was a teenager........hmmm.....who to pick for future answers........

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Short interest is close to an all time high, around 26 million shares. If nothing new is announced today, the stock will probably go red very quickly, but will slingshot tomorrow after the investor meeting.