Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[chickensevil]

So glad they brought up the free cash flow positive number again and it will happen in Q4. This is great news that things haven't changed here. If we don't see major shareprice lift-off before Q4, I would consider trying to grab em while they are still cheap because once those cash flows go positive this will totally shred the last major bear argument and will lift all other aspects of Tesla (including self-funding more gigafactories and plants)

And I really want to focus on this, because as a shareholder I think this is the most likely to *really* cause major change in the fundamentals of how the company is evaluated and solidify shareprice as a real number. Yes EPS is important and will come, but cash flows is the first major step in the right direction of stopping all the cash burns (which would ultimately lead to the death of Tesla if they didn't turn it around... that or more rounds of funding... neither is a pleasant thought.) So forget the X, forget the Stationary Storage. Forget the Model 3. Yes, as a customer those are important and are needed to help the company stay in business (because if noone likes your products you are doomed) but the cash flows solidfy that not only do you have amazing products, but they are extremely profitable products.

This will be data that the financial guys (even the shorts) will have to acknowledge and get behind, and will raise everyone's PTs (even BofA)

 

[mrdoubleb]

Ok, so trying not to get too hyped here, but with this great ER and even better call plus the AH already up, how high do you guys see TSLA go in the next few days/weeks once the analyst digest this and we start to see the upgrades? 250s? 60s?

 

[mmccord]

Ok, so trying not to get too hyped here, but with this great ER and even better call plus the AH already up, how high do you guys see TSLA go in the next few days/weeks once the analyst digest this and we start to see the upgrades? 250s? 60s?

It will close tomorrow down 2 cents. :biggrin:

 

[TSLAopt]

Ok, so trying not to get too hyped here, but with this great ER and even better call plus the AH already up, how high do you guys see TSLA go in the next few days/weeks once the analyst digest this and we start to see the upgrades? 250s? 60s?

Long term yes, but short term is always so unpredictable...could go down 10-20 and then slowly rebound back up

or could go up 10-20 tomorrow and then slowly work its way back down to 230s for a while before coming back up

 

[joefee]

Ok, so trying not to get too hyped here, but with this great ER and even better call plus the AH already up, how high do you guys see TSLA go in the next few days/weeks once the analyst digest this and we start to see the upgrades? 250s? 60s?

IMO $250 very doable next week or so

 

[sub]

I don't know about all of you, but I think they just crushed it.

Agree. 240+ by Friday.

 

[FredTMC]

Agree. 240+ by Friday.

Yep. At least $240 probably more. Here come the analyst upgrades.

 

[chickensevil]

With the close to utter disdain that EM has for Lovallo you have to wonder if the guy just can't bring himself to admit he has been and is wrong about TM/TSLA and move his estimate up......significantly.

One could hope. I would be happy with just a doubling of his estimate. Still list it as a sell to somewhat save face, but raise the PT so it is just under the current price to say... 180... Claim it is due to the new battery storage business which will "save the company" from peril and that this is what justifies the PT increase, but still overweight.

Because he is the crazy sector on the sell side, this in turn means the crazy sector on the buy side is free to jump into the high 400s and the sensible analysts will go with somewhere in the middle... namely... 300-350.

So AJ at 450$, JL at 180, and everyone else somewhere in between, I would be quite happy with that... won't happen... but one can dream!

 

[ScepticMatt]

Are you sure? I'll have to check the transcript tomorrow and well see

not those exact words that often, but they talked about how orders are far above what they can make and how they can ramp,
and they are triaging their responses to orders to distributors only. But they clarified that this is highly speculative for now.

Also, a whole 50% larger GF could be a total of 75 GWh for stationary?

I'm not sure, but I believe it was 50% higher than 15 GWh for storage, i.e. 22 GWh

 

[AlMc]

I am surprised that the after hours market volume is not heavier...'only' 1.1+ million shares at about 7pm...........

 

[FANGO]

I'm not sure, but I believe it was 50% higher than 15 GWh for storage, i.e. 22 GWh

It was stated that current stationary demand looks like it could sell out the gigafactory. As a result they were talking about going bigger with the gigafactory. This to me suggests that they were thinking of 75gwh for the factory, still using the 35gwh for cars, and the balance for stationary. Then using up more of it for cars if they can, since it's higher margins (though lower volume).

 

[FluxCap]

WSJ is trying *so* hard to spin this negatively that the first thing they do is make up a performance ratio that compares year over year cash burn, as if it were a bad thing to spend the capital you raised explicitly to expand the business and generate revenues.

First sentence reads "Tesla Motors Inc. was stung by rising costs in its first quarter, reporting a wider net loss compared with a year ago even as the sale of regulatory credits and Model S sedans increased sharply."

Stung? Making planned cash expenditures completely in line with expectations is "stung?"

Journalism is dead.

The guy that wrote this article:
[email protected]

Feel free to correct him if you so choose.

 

[tinm]

It was stated that current stationary demand looks like it could sell out the gigafactory. As a result they were talking about going bigger with the gigafactory. This to me suggests that they were thinking of 75gwh for the factory, still using the 35gwh for cars, and the balance for stationary. Then using up more of it for cars if they can, since it's higher margins (though lower volume).

Wondering if the enlarged demands on the GF could bode well for lithium producers like Western Lithium.

 

[The Blue Owl]

WSJ is trying *so* hard to spin this negatively that the first thing they do is make up a performance ratio that compares year over year cash burn, as if it were a bad thing to spend the capital you raised explicitly to expand the business and generate revenues.

First sentence reads "Tesla Motors Inc. was stung by rising costs in its first quarter, reporting a wider net loss compared with a year ago even as the sale of regulatory credits and Model S sedans increased sharply."

Stung? Making planned cash expenditures completely in line with expectations is "stung?"

Journalism is dead.

The guy that wrote this article:
[email protected]

Feel free to correct him if you so choose.

Yeah. In the meantime, Cory Johnson says "I think quarter-over-quarter sales are a better measure than year-over-year, and QoQ is 2%!" YoY is more like 50%, so of course it's not a good number for dear Cory, God bless him.

 

[austinEV]

Good ER, great CC.....but let us not count our chickens before they hatch...and no poetry/haikus allowed......ever:biggrin:

Such hatred on this site for poetry

 

[chickensevil]

But let that 8.5B$ number sink in a bit... as this blows even our numbers here at TMC out of the water and all needs to be re-churned.

Let me just crunch a few conservative estimates here out of the car business. Assuming they take the MS and MX to 100k a year and stop there at 100k$ ASP (also a bit conservative), and then 300k M3 at a 50k ASP (I think that is a fair number, but we won't know for a while. That is 10B$ on the MS/MX, 15B$ on the M3, and an extra 8.5B$ on Stationary. Total 2020 revenues looking at 33.5B$ on a sorta conservative number. Assuming Tesla pulls off a modest 10% net profit at 3.35B$ 145M shares (and lets assume that number goes up to 160M by 2020 - This means no major capital raises and share dillution is just caused by stock compensation plans) would come out to 21$ EPS! Have fun with those numbers

 

[techmaven]

Ok, since we haven't heard from DaveT, I'm going to host the Google Hangout on Air to discuss tonight's ER.

Here's the URL:

https://plus.google.com/events/c0gdkao2rips2tq05kvm2n3t2mc

9:30pm EST.

----

Note that the URL has changed since it needs to be a Hangout on Air to record it.

 

[AlMc]

Wondering if the enlarged demands on the GF could bode well for lithium producers like Western Lithium.

It is up over 10% in the last two days despite the generally horrible market,,,,,,whopping 64 cents a share. I bought 10,000 share at .40 over a year ago just so could say I owe 10,000 shares of something.:wink:

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

Another quarter, and we've done it again -- discussed the shareholder letter and conference call in two threads. I've moved all the discussion about the letter/call that DIDN'T talk about the stock price to the discussion thread set up for that purpose: 2015 Q1 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conference Call

 

[FANGO]

Well with AH looking like we're going to open tomorrow at about yesterday's close, it's making me really wish I had thought of the idea to sell an iron condor about ten minutes earlier than I did (had an order to sell a put spread, didn't consider doing the other wing though). 210-220/240-250 would have net I think about 6 bucks...

If the stock can open and go up gangbusters all day and close at 250 I'll forgive myself for missing the opportunity. May 15th 175-210 call spread which I bought back at ~180 or so is still looking great though.

- - - Updated - - -

Another quarter, and we've done it again -- discussed the shareholder letter and conference call in two threads. I've moved all the discussion about the letter/call that DIDN'T talk about the stock price to the discussion thread set up for that purpose: 2015 Q1 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conference Call

Can we just close this thread entirely then? I don't know what it's for anymore. It's clear that since the discussion is going on here, that's where people want to have the discussion, because it's a natural thing to talk about on earnings days in the thread that receives the most traffic.