Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Robert.Boston]

Can we just close this thread entirely then? I don't know what it's for anymore. It's clear that since the discussion is going on here, that's where people want to have the discussion, because it's a natural thing to talk about on earnings days.

Somehow 6,340 posts have been generated (and left) in this thread about nothing. You complain every time I move one of your posts, and my answer is always the same: this is not a chat IRC, but a threaded forum. Post in the threads per their topic. If there is a topic specifically for the topic you want to discuss, that's where it should go.

 

[Citizen-T]

You know most of the analysts have their new reports all written up and were just waiting to ask a few questions before sending them out. We are going to be awash in PT raises tomorrow and through the end of the week. PTs simply cannot stay where they are after this call. Stationary storage needs to be taken into account in a bit way in the out years, and nobody's got that in their models right now.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

You know most of the analysts have their new reports all written up and were just waiting to ask a few questions before sending them out. We are going to be awash in PT raises tomorrow and through the end of the week. PTs simply cannot stay where they are after this call. Stationary storage needs to be taken into account in a bit way in the out years, and nobody's got that in their models right now.

I was just about to ask when today's call would be factored into analyst reports.

This could be brutal for short sellers!!!

 

[Citizen-T]

I was just about to ask when today's call would be factored into analyst reports.

This could be brutal for short sellers!!!

Tomorrow. I'll be shocked if we don't see at least 3 PT raises tomorrow morning. Even the bearish analysts have got to bump their targets $10. There's just no way you can retain a shred of credibility if you don't.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I was just about to ask when today's call would be factored into analyst reports.

This could be brutal for short sellers!!!

But TSLA is up only $3 AH. Still, I agree: this call takes away (IMO) any plausible story about how TSLA is going back under, say, $150 in the next 24 months. Tesla can always control the pace of its CapEx if there is a cash crunch.

 

[chickensevil]

Tomorrow. I'll be shocked if we don't see at least 3 PT raises tomorrow morning. Even the bearish analysts have got to bump their targets $10. There's just no way you can retain a shred of credibility if you don't.

I don't know, Logical Thought posted a few days back that this only added like 3$ to the shareprice at best. So 10$ might be too much of a stretch for John Lovallo haha!

 

[Citizen-T]

I don't know, Logical Thought posted a few days back that this only added like 3$ to the shareprice at best. So 10$ might be too much of a stretch for John Lovallo haha!

Well, John Lovallo has no shred of credibility to retain anyway, so he can hold his PT.

- - - Updated - - -

But TSLA is up only $3 AH. Still, I agree: this call takes away (IMO) any plausible story about how TSLA is going back under, say, $150 in the next 24 months. Tesla can always control the pace of its CapEx if there is a cash crunch.

If it is still up only $3 at open, I'll buy hand over fist.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Well, John Lovallo has no shred of credibility to retain anyway, so he can hold his PT.

Maybe with Tesla's entry into utility-scale energy, BoA/ML will decide to reassign TSLA coverage to its utility analyst. He can't be worse.

 

[chickensevil]

Well, John Lovallo has no shred of credibility to retain anyway, so he can hold his PT.

LOL! Fair enough. I'm still hoping he comes around and raises his PT to like, some value at or greater than 150$. I think that would be a reasonable jump for his 65$ price target right?

 

[doggusfluffy]

Biz Break: Tesla toes thin line with Model X launch - San Jose Mercury News

While a record for the company, first-quarter sales were not enough to put Tesla on track to meet Musk's prediction of 55,000 deliveries in 2015, and the company's prediction for the second quarter doesn't reflect an increase. Musk expects the big boost to come from the launch of the Model X, which Tesla originally expected to debut by now.

Didn't he say 12k for Q2?

 

[chickensevil]

Maybe with Tesla's entry into utility-scale energy, BoA/ML will decide to reassign TSLA coverage to its utility analyst. He can't be worse.

Well, he *can* be, lol. Although Lovallo is low on the listing of all analysts, he is not at the bottom. He might be the best analyst BofA has.

- - - Updated - - -

Biz Break: Tesla toes thin line with Model X launch - San Jose Mercury News



Didn't he say 12k for Q2?

Production 12k
Deliveries 10-11k

 

[oneday]

Was anyone surprised to hear model 3 production late 2017? Has that been the plan for a while, I can't seem to recall.

If it is being pushed back that will certainly hurt 2017 revenues. Won't that lower price targets or do they go out to 2020 and beyond?

 

[FluxCap]

Tomorrow. I'll be shocked if we don't see at least 3 PT raises tomorrow morning. Even the bearish analysts have got to bump their targets $10. There's just no way you can retain a shred of credibility if you don't.

Agreed. They are crunching spreadsheets right now, modeling in future revenues and discounting them back, based on the reveals and guidance on call tonight of costs and MASSIVE demand projections for stationary storage and more. Failure to revise PT's risks moving them into the Lovallo camp of shame, which most analysts covering TSLA don't want to approach.

 

[Citizen-T]

Was anyone surprised to hear model 3 production late 2017? Has that been the plan for a while, I can't seem to recall.

If it is being pushed back that will certainly hurt 2017 revenues. Won't that lower price targets or do they go out to 2020 and beyond?

Not necessarily. As Elon was saying with the X, these exponential ramps mean that moving around delivery of the first cars by a few months makes almost no difference. Though, if you draw some arbitrary quarterly line, it can make a huge difference to that quarter. But 2020 isn't going to care if you push back the first couple thousand Model 3s.

 

[mejojo]

It seemed as though the AH traders might have had some vague notion that there might be something mildly interesting going on, but nothing commensurate with the response here to the report and call.

Am I missing something? Is this par for the course and tomorrow will be good?

 

[chickensevil]

It seemed as though the AH traders might have had some vague notion that there might be something mildly interesting going on, but nothing commensurate with the response here to the report and call.

Am I missing something? Is this par for the course and tomorrow will be good?

Once the volume died off, I got the feeling that someone was really just trying to keep the price under 236ish... Because they would say something awesome on the call, the price would start to go up, and then for no reason it would hit a "ceiling" and fall back down... rinse, repeat... maybe I am just imagining things as I was watching the stock while listening.

But I think what we are all expecting is analyst upgrades in PT finally as they are forced to finally value the Storage business, which has been totally unaccounted for in anyone's numbers, which means that it should be nothing but PT price increases, even if they hold the same rating (ie. buy, sell, hold). Because even the bearish bear I know over on Seeking Alpha had to give the Storage business a 3$ value... so the bullish bull is likely to go to the moon on adding to their share price with this one.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla buys Grand Rapids auto supplier, its first presence in Michigan

Riviera, which makes stamping parts that are shipped to Tesla's assembly plant in Fremont, Calif., has about 100 employees. Tesla is expected to retain those workers and eventually rename the operation Tesla Tool & Die, said the source who is not authorized to speak publicly about the transaction.

 

[uselesslogin]

Was anyone surprised to hear model 3 production late 2017? Has that been the plan for a while, I can't seem to recall.

If it is being pushed back that will certainly hurt 2017 revenues. Won't that lower price targets or do they go out to 2020 and beyond?

It has been the plan since at least late 2014 anyway.

 

[oneday]

It seemed as though the AH traders might have had some vague notion that there might be something mildly interesting going on, but nothing commensurate with the response here to the report and call.

Am I missing something? Is this par for the course and tomorrow will be good?

Looking back to the last few ER's this is the most bullish reaction in quite some time! I would hope this indicates tomorrow will be a good day, hard to know.

 

[hockeythug]

Tesla buys Grand Rapids auto supplier, its first presence in Michigan

Very nice.