Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[gene]

a Tesla Mobile charging Truck that will meet you in one of your way points. Tesla will station hundreds of these bad boys each with a 1000 Kwh battery at its superchargers. You alert Tesla command center and will get instructions like meet your rescue truck in 25 minutes at this road side location. It's a like midair refueling of fighter jets. But you need to pay for it though!

Now this is a great idea!

 

[Auzie]

The last time we had anything near this type of tweet/announcement about a future event....the 'D'....TSLA moved higher in anticipation of the event/information, then moved lower when many decided it was not as important as the pre reveal excitement. So, a NAV improvement that helps you decide if you can get to point B from point A and gives advice about a nearby SC if you can't may have some positive affect on sales (mitigate some range anxiety) but is hardly necessary for seasoned EV travelers.

This improvement most likely focuses on car being improved. Further product quality improvements are necessary and welcome but unlikely to move the price.

Current sp slumber is not related to concerns about car quality. Market seems to be concerned with Tesla business performance, ie missing its own guidance in successive quarters, problems with penetrating important markets, problems with adequate staffing in China.

My expectation for sp is to move up only if we see guidance that reflects adequate yoy growth and is being met or exceeded.

 

[jhm]

a Tesla Mobile charging Truck that will meet you in one of your way points. Tesla will station hundreds of these bad boys each with a 1000 Kwh battery at its superchargers. You alert Tesla command center and will get instructions like meet your rescue truck in 25 minutes at this road side location. It's a like midair refueling of fighter jets. But you need to pay for it though!

I like the mobile charging idea, but consider the irony of using a gas or diesel powered truck to solve the range anxiety illusion. Now if Tesla had an all-electric truck for this purpose, that would be a bit better. Even so, it is hard to fight the range anxiety perception by sending out a rescue fleet.

Perhaps, we could use a thread for speculating on the Thursday press conference. Don't worry; I am no longer a moderator.

 

[Drax7]

Anxiety can be alleviated with medication, that is my vote.

 

[jhm]

Two potential ways to improve range with software:

1. New algorithm to optimize inverter efficiency.
2. New driving mode that translates driver control actions into energy efficient handling of the car.

Autopilot research could lead to energy efficient performance modes with and without all the autopilot sensors. For example, a motor sleep mode between accelerating and regenerative breaking could allow coasting. Tesla has had to figure out how to do this for dual motors, so maybe this can be applied to single motors as well. Other possibilities include smoothing the acceleration or deceleration curve, as jerkiness in application of the accelerator could be a driver induced source of inefficiency.

Any advance in the efficiency of the inverter could have a huge impact.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Just a guess. Think Apple and the MacBook Air.

Also, if the Model S knows the beginning and end point of a journey, it can adjust the power usage accordingly to optimize the range.

Strange feeing this week will be insanely volatile for the entire market. Interesting week for Elon to have 3 significant meetings and probably receive a lot of press coverage.

I'll be surprised if a certain analyst doesn't release a negative note tomorrow or Tuesday as a lasts ditch effort to try and take attention away from any positive reports.

 

[xhawk101]

Anxiety can be alleviated with medication, that is my vote.

Lol! Agree

 

[erha]

What about self driving capabilities combined with new navigation software that will guarantee that you can make it from A to B. You just plot in the address you want to end up at, and that's all you have to do (if they make SuperChargers connect automatically that is).

 

[AlMc]

This is where you will find 20+ pages of the discussion on the Elon tweet: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/44362-Elon-About-to-end-range-anxiety

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are all opportunities for Elon to set the record straight about the status of the Gigafactory /Gigafactories and present demand for the Model S and Model X, and the state of things for Tesla in China.

The upgrade to the range of the Model S or charging time for the Model S might just be icing on the cake to remind people that Tesla is far ahead of every other company.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I like the mobile charging idea, but consider the irony of using a gas or diesel powered truck to solve the range anxiety illusion. Now if Tesla had an all-electric truck for this purpose, that would be a bit better. Even so, it is hard to fight the range anxiety perception by sending out a rescue fleet.

Perhaps, we could use a thread for speculating on the Thursday press conference. Don't worry; I am no longer a moderator.

No need to think "dirty" about the mobile charging idea. There is no need for a smelly and ugly diesel truck - TM can just dispatch a modified Model X with double/triple battery and a dozen standard chargers (aka as a supercharger) on board.

In fact, it can be even done on the cheap, just using stock Model S 85D (with tow bars), charging another MS through the road. In addition to using a stock car this method also has another advantage - not only it charges out of charge MS, it also gets it closer to destination! See this post for more details on this method...

 

[doggusfluffy]

Two potential ways to improve range with software:

1. New algorithm to optimize inverter efficiency.
2. New driving mode that translates driver control actions into energy efficient handling of the car.

Autopilot research could lead to energy efficient performance modes with and without all the autopilot sensors. For example, a motor sleep mode between accelerating and regenerative breaking could allow coasting. Tesla has had to figure out how to do this for dual motors, so maybe this can be applied to single motors as well. Other possibilities include smoothing the acceleration or deceleration curve, as jerkiness in application of the accelerator could be a driver induced source of inefficiency.

Any advance in the efficiency of the inverter could have a huge impact.

I think Jerome mentioned during one of the recent D events that the autopilot was the most efficient mode for optimal range by far. Maybe something in combination with the improved NAV.
Tesla Model S P85D Launch Event Switzerland - YouTube

 

[Citizen-T]

There's nothing on the horizon (that we know about) other than Model X that deserves a press conference. I don't think this could simply be updates to the NAV because (among other reasons) they just did a major software update which included improvements to the NAV and a lot more. That release didn't seem to deserve a press conference.

We know that Tesla's range anxiety answer is the Superchargers. I think that in order to satisfy the "OTA update" part of his statement, they'll announce that all cars are going to get a significant bump in Supercharging speed. But, I don't think that is enough to end range anxiety. The only way to satisfy that part of the tweet (IMO) is to also announce a partnership that is going to massively accelerate the deployment of the Supercharger network.

I don't know what the right partner would be. Starbucks maybe, though I don't know what their international footprint is like (he said the whole fleet). I don't think it'll just be an investor (e.g. Apple) because money is not the limiting factor in Supercharger rollout, it's land.

So, how to trade? Well, I'm going to follow the same plan that I did for the D announcement. Ride the speculation up to the day before, then buy puts. I bet there's a letdown. If there was something truly remarkable going on, we'd know about it.

 

[SteveG3]

saw a comment on an article re the tweet that had another software improving possibility:

The fleet's batteries have done so well in terms of limiting degradation that Tesla will enable a larger portion of the battery to be used for propulsion via new software (i.e., reduce the buffer). According to the comment I read this was done with the Volt.

I agree with concern that this may be new navigation software, which while useful, will disappoint market. That said, a press conference gives Elon a chance to refute some FUD (he tends to slip that into earnings calls), or perhaps mention Tesla's new expectations of battery cost dropping below $100/kWh by 2020.

 

[mdemetri]

Ok, so how should this be played short term? With the "D" announcement, there was a sudden reversal of the down trend and significant gain ahead of the announcement, followed by major drop right after the announcement. I bought a lot of short term calls on the "D" and lost big time. Now I am thinking of buying far OTM short term puts near the end of trading on Wed, expecting that the announcement will not live up to the expectation (even though it may be awesome, just like the D was, there will be FUD that ensures reversal of any gains). Thoughts?

 

[yesla]

this gets my vote. 1) its a simple update. 2) it gets rid of any range anxiety because the driver does not have to think at all. set the destination and let the autopilot get you there. if it needs a recharge, it will arrive at a SC and resume the journey.

simple

(edit: oh... this does not include the entire MS lineup... sooo... darn...)

No matter what the solution may be, what gets presented will impact EM's image big time. eliminating range anxiety is a BIG deal. His announcements have always been a wild card and I've always been surprised. So I'm looking to get surprised again

 

[mrdoubleb]

So i think we really need to learn to split the significance of an announcement from the effect on TSLA.

I think then honeymoon phase is over and only hard results will matter. Until Tesla shows a good quarter (beats Street expectations) announcements like this won't matter. There may be a small "buy on the rumor" but it will be followed by a "sell on the news".

The only non earnings announcements that could break this trend are things with a significant, positive financial impact (big partnership, merger, Model X production start). Maybe Model 3 protoype shown ahead of 2016, or the unlikely event they now enable an extra 50 miles of range on all cars somehow would move the stock, but a navigation update won't.

Having said that, I am super excited about next Thursday, wondering what they cooked up this time, just don't expect this to set us on our course to $300 again.

 

[Renaud]

So i think we really need to learn to split the significance of an announcement from the effect on TSLA.

I think then honeymoon phase is over and only hard results will matter. Until Tesla shows a good quarter (beats Street expectations) announcements like this won't matter. There may be a small "buy on the rumor" but it will be followed by a "sell on the news".

The only non earnings announcements that could break this trend are things with a significant, positive financial impact (big partnership, merger, Model X production start). Maybe Model 3 protoype shown ahead of 2016, or the unlikely event they now enable an extra 50 miles of range on all cars somehow would move the stock, but a navigation update won't.

Having said that, I am super excited about next Thursday, wondering what they cooked up this time, just don't expect this to set us on our course to $300 again.

I tend to agree with you.
How often did we have a press conference in the past?
I can remember events (such as the D), there are CC, Tweets, press releases or appearances at events (motor shows). But a real press conference? Reyes new way of communicating?
So far, Tesla has been very quiet although every news were interpreted negatively. Must be frustrating for EM. I guess he just could not debunk everything by tweet, it would have looked too defensive.

My opinion is that the OTA update for the entire fleet, whatever it is and whatever it brings, is just an excuse to be able to pass a good message on what matters: no hard numbers though, but just fixing some misconceptions and misunderstandings about what happened lately, namely Jerome's post splitting, demand concerns, CPO, Gigafactory. He's got a chance to talk and give a positive message and in a way that is not related to the "financial" (ER) side of TM, in a detached way of TSLA. He's not going to be talking to investors, shareholders and analysts only, but to a much broader audience that can eventually become costumers. SP will indirectly be affected by it, but I think what matters now is to bring back a positive perception, ahead of important events later this year.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Tesla Motors is at this years Cebit in Hannover, Germany (opened today).
Maybe they will show their newly added autopilot features (lane assist and park assist) - would make sense.
Report on motormobiles (german).

TM will take part in this year's CeBIT in Germany (March 15-20).
Visitors will have the opportunity to test autopilot features of Model S at Hall 12 ("IT enables – Internet of Things" area).

 

[FANGO]

What about self driving capabilities combined with new navigation software that will guarantee that you can make it from A to B. You just plot in the address you want to end up at, and that's all you have to do (if they make SuperChargers connect automatically that is).

95% chance it's this. Will integrate with autopilot on those cars and cruise control on older cars. The only reason I would think its not nav+cruise control+supercharger routing is that non-tech cars don't have nav, so it wouldn't be the whole fleet. Unless they activate nav for those cars... Maybe back it up with a guarantee of a free tow or über or something if the software fails you.

Basically, instead of humans doing the wh/mi calculation, the car will do it for you, and tell you how long to charge etc. it won't change much for those of us who are good at these calculations, but will make things easier for people who can't be bothered to spend half a second thinking about their driving style So it really won't change much, just make the cars more idiot proof.

It's not mobile charging trucks, that's for sure. And it won't be an incremental change adding 5% range or 10% faster charging, those don't fundamentally change anything about the car.