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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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An OTA update that applies to the entire Model S fleet seems to rule out:
1. autopilot/self-driving enhancements as not all Model S have the hardware for this.
2. Supercharger enhancements since not all Model S have access to Superchargers.
3. Charge rescue truck since this is not an OTA upgrade and is difficult to roll out to entire fleet in all the places they go.

How to play price movements? I thoroughly expect bears to attack the price as the news comes out Thursday. So buyers may want to hold back to see what discount will be offered on Thursday or Friday. Ignore the rumor, buy the news at a discount.
 
An OTA update that applies to the entire Model S fleet seems to rule out:
1. autopilot/self-driving enhancements as not all Model S have the hardware for this.
2. Supercharger enhancements since not all Model S have access to Superchargers.
3. Charge rescue truck since this is not an OTA upgrade and is difficult to roll out to entire fleet in all the places they go.

How to play price movements? I thoroughly expect bears to attack the price as the news comes out Thursday. So buyers may want to hold back to see what discount will be offered on Thursday or Friday. Ignore the rumor, buy the news at a discount.


+1

i see this as Elon's "Demand Secret-Weapon"....... That said, the media is already beginning a negative spin.
 
I have been doing this for a long time, and I've never met anybody that can choreograph the price action.

If range anxiety is significantly reduced, such that the software makes the decision for you, and you can be care free
And allow it to guide you, then that is a valuable tool.

Anything that widens Tesla's moat adds to it sustainability .
 
While I don't expect anything spectacular like the "D", it will be interesting to see if Elon and the team can hit this one out of the park. With prices so enticing, perhaps this is the nudge we needed to turn sentiments. Elon will be speaking tomorrow, so lots of positive action for the week.
 
Ending of range anxiety, IMO, is really about taking the guess-work from the prediction of how far one can drive in MS, especially when environmental conditions change while on-route. The first attempt at this prediction was made in version 6.1, which includes real-time graph showing how much the battery is depleted at the end of the specified route. The important thing to note, that although this graph has, as an input, selected rout to the destination, it is **not** part of the navigation system – it is part of the Energy App.

The information about the route can be pulled either from the GPS based navigation system for cars with the Tech package, **or** from the Google navigation for cars without the tech. package. So improvement to the Energy App. could apply to the entire fleet of MS.

I think that elimination of range anxiety is most likely entails a significant improvement to the Energy App. Speed has a major impact on the range, but Energy App currently does not allow to enter planned speed for a trip (either in mph or in mph above speed limit). So I expect this to be added. The graph that shows real time progress along the route and predicted battery charge at the end can also be made “active” in that it could, if battery charge at the end falls too low (say 10-15%) could provide a real time advice on the speed that need to be maintained in order to arrive to the destination with enough charge.
Another enhancement that can help with range anxiety, and could be applied to the whole fleet, is ECO mode on conventional cruise control. Allowing speed to fall by several mph driving up-hill, and then allowing the speed to exceed the setting by several mph driving downhill will improve efficiency.

The third component affecting the entire fleet could be some tweaks in the software controlling the operation of power conversion unit which could result in slight improvement in efficiency (lowering Wh/mile).

Regarding the price action, given the above, I believe that we will see significant run-up into the press conference because of mass confusion and wildly optimistic expectation of increased range (confusion between “ending range anxiety” and increasing range). So I believe we will see very swift movement down after the press conference.

There is, however, a chance that prediction of dropping SP after the conference will turn out wrong – as others mentioned, it seems unusual that we have a press-conference rather than the usual “event”. This opens door to reporters asking wide range of questions on demand, production, personnel re-assignment, GF progress, etc. If Elon successfully dismisses the bear perpetuated concerns, we might see a reversal of the down ward trend.
 
I'm afraid I agree with AlMc: we'll see a nice run-up through Wednesday as rumors build, then a collapse at 12:15pm Thursday as we learn that all the hype is over some relatively minor improvements in the nav software and a partnership with Plugshare. (I'm assuming the 9am press conference is 9am Pacific, yes?) Of course, that's just my speculation.
 
Regarding the price action, given the above, I believe that we will see significant run-up into the press conference because of mass confusion and wildly optimistic expectation of increased range (confusion between “ending range anxiety” and increasing range). So I believe we will see very swift movement down after the press conference.

There is, however, a chance that prediction of dropping SP after the conference will turn out wrong – as others mentioned, it seems unusual that we have a press-conference rather than the usual “event”. This opens door to reporters asking wide range of questions on demand, production, personnel re-assignment, GF progress, etc. If Elon successfully dismisses the bear perpetuated concerns, we might see a reversal of the down ward trend.

I'd like to add mass confusion amongst massive numbers of shorts. Great timing Elon, I know you still have stationary storage announcement lined up.
 
I'm afraid I agree with AlMc: we'll see a nice run-up through Wednesday as rumors build, then a collapse at 12:15pm Thursday as we learn that all the hype is over some relatively minor improvements in the nav software and a partnership with Plugshare. (I'm assuming the 9am press conference is 9am Pacific, yes?) Of course, that's just my speculation.

I think you are right and I will take today through Wednesday as an opportunity to offload some short-term calls I've been holding and perhaps, if the market does react the way it would seem likely, add to LEAPs instead on Thursday/Friday. Of course, for all we know, the annoucement could be unexpectedly spectacular but I wouldn't hold my breath. Tesla is all about gradual progress in small steps, not really large leaps (even though Elon sometimes tries to portray it like that).
 
My prediction for short-term price movement would be (in line with some posts above) this: Upward movement to about 200s based on crazy speculation and drop after press conference due to disappointment on part of misguided media reports. The scope and importance of what Tesla is doing right now with its car software is beyond the grasp of many analysts, and certainly most media outlets, including Reuters, CNN and the like. They don't understand what the fundamental reasons for range anxiety are. Even the quite unlikely event of an OTA software update to increase Model S ranges by 50% certainly wouldn't lead to an end of range anxiety.

Of course, Elon could do the "something else" part on Thursday, too (like showing off Model X final design), and this would result in further upward movement of the stock, but this is unlikely given Elon's track record.
 
I'm afraid I agree with AlMc: we'll see a nice run-up through Wednesday as rumors build, then a collapse at 12:15pm Thursday as we learn that all the hype is over some relatively minor improvements in the nav software and a partnership with Plugshare. (I'm assuming the 9am press conference is 9am Pacific, yes?) Of course, that's just my speculation.

Even if bulls are quite patient not to buy on rumors, shorts very well could curtail their selling until Thursday to allow the price to swell. So if the price goes up on low volume, then we will know that sellers are are holding back, cutting the supply of shares for trade.
 
I'm afraid I agree with AlMc: we'll see a nice run-up through Wednesday as rumors build, then a collapse at 12:15pm Thursday as we learn that all the hype is over some relatively minor improvements in the nav software and a partnership with Plugshare. (I'm assuming the 9am press conference is 9am Pacific, yes?) Of course, that's just my speculation.

This is pretty much what the market assumes, I think. Still, upside or downside surprise is very possible when trading non-scheduled events like this, especially if magnified in either direction by macro events this week. All eyes are on Fed chair Yellen and the Wednesday FOMC communication, which could send the market on a tear either way the day before Elon's presser.

I personally think Tesla needs more well-orchestrated press events, even if only to display managerial competence in basic corporate communications, so I'm pleased by the very existence of this event. Judging by pre-market price action, the market is too.

No matter what happens Thursday, I think it's clear that Elon can generate and harness consumer excitement about new American technology better than just about anyone out there right now -- and he has clearly inherited the mantle from Steve Jobs in this regard.

I'm confident no matter what Elon reveals Thursday, it will be exponentially *cooler* than anything any other car company on the planet is talking about right now.
 
Let's remember the "TMC law of tweets": The answer is usually the most boring. If so, it is nav improvements that do the range calculations for you and allow you to use the car to plan a complex route. 99% chance of this. This has felt missing for a long time. I have felt it when driving. If you do the math, you can get wherever you need to go, but you do need to do that math. This update will dumb it down and make it easy.

They will add the charging partner network to the nav. 99% chance of this. Hopefully they don't overhype this since most of them are at hotels and are for guests only. So this is nice if you are planning a roadtrip and that hotel works for you, otherwise the charging partners are "meh".

What I HOPE: Announcing a charge partner arrangement with some large company with a widespread footprint: Target, Wendy's, even Mcdonalds or walmart. Starbucks is a lousy choice since many of them have limited parking or don't control their lots since they are renters. 50% of this.
 
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