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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Originally Posted by ev-enthusiast viewpost-right.png

asked about price reduction.
... no way
frown.gif

Still the same sad story with these Tesla sales guys, not willing to give me a single cent price reduction (unlike my local Audi, BMW dealer).


How about politely remind them they are already saving ~6% off dealer markup. Maybe that could be a calculated figure on the sales form with the total listed as 100% returned to customer.
 
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No one refuses to buy a new iPhone because the price is not negotable. Buying a new car should be no different. Nobody enjoys the haggling process. I want to buy a car just like I buy everything else in this world. Suggesting Tesla needs to start allow haggling would be a step back to the dark ages.

Haggling is not a requirement at dealerships. This has always puzzled me in terms of the dealership negatives that are discussed. My negatives usually are in the service department setup for maximum income. I think, in general, people who use the haggling complaint have become unable to ask for what they want and cannot negotiate with people directly. Honestly, it is a five minute discussion, and many dealerships offer internet sales persons to deal with people "shopping around". Any mature person can san no and walk away. The internet, and "ordering online", has made people less able to communicate with people in-person. "Would you take this price. No? Thanks for your time..." And nobody stops anyone from paying window sticker price at dealerships.

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Tesla is approaching 52 week lows. How will this affect the SP? In my ten years of noob trading I have always had good luck buying when the SP is close to 52 week lows. To me these stocks are cheap as long the company is not at risk of going under. The prolonged silence from Tesla, lack of positive "leaks" and a very conservative 9500 Q1 delivery guidance and 55,000 full year guidance seems like a massive bear trap to destroy bears for good. I suspect Elon is tired of bears shorting the stock that he is going to inflict max pain. They will think twice before shorting Tesla ever again. I expect 12,000 new deliveries just filling orders @ 1000/wk production + 1400 deliveries that were due in Q4 2014 + several hundred demo/loaners that were produced in 2014 is going to make Q1 a huge beat.

This would mean selling close to 7500 worldwide in March. Good luck, but honestly I think this is irrational exuberance. The thing is that the 1400 vacation cars from December really didn't show up in Jan and Feb sales numbers in a very visible way. I would be surprised to see more than 9000 for the quarter and perhaps the pps represents this sentiment among investors.

PS, here on TMC I "won" the 2014 guess the year long sales number contest when we setup our estimations back in Jan/Feb of 2014.
 
I think, in general, people who use the haggling complaint have become unable to ask for what they want and cannot negotiate with people directly. Honestly, it is a five minute discussion

I don't think people should even have to ask for what they want. If I go to the supermarket to buy some apples, I just pay the sticker price. If there's self checkout, I might not even have to talk to anyone. If I go to the Apple Store I don't have to go to the hassle of convincing the sales associate that I should pay x, y, or a for a Mac or iPhone.

Many dealerships will try to overcharge women or old people or others viewed as easy marks. For me it's a 1 minute discussion because I pay cash and I say take it or leave it. For someone else this might not be so easy.
 
Tesla is approaching 52 week lows. How will this affect the SP? In my ten years of noob trading I have always had good luck buying when the SP is close to 52 week lows. To me these stocks are cheap as long the company is not at risk of going under. The prolonged silence from Tesla, lack of positive "leaks" and a very conservative 9500 Q1 delivery guidance and 55,000 full year guidance seems like a massive bear trap to destroy bears for good. I suspect Elon is tired of bears shorting the stock that he is going to inflict max pain. They will think twice before shorting Tesla ever again. I expect 12,000 new deliveries just filling orders @ 1000/wk production + 1400 deliveries that were due in Q4 2014 + several hundred demo/loaners that were produced in 2014 is going to make Q1 a huge beat.
Very much appreciate your enthusiasm on the Q1 deliveries......I am just hoping we make guidance, then exceed Q2 slightly and have a good 2ndhalf of 2015.:wink:
 
Haggling is not a requirement at dealerships. This has always puzzled me in terms of the dealership negatives that are discussed. My negatives usually are in the service department setup for maximum income. I think, in general, people who use the haggling complaint have become unable to ask for what they want and cannot negotiate with people directly. Honestly, it is a five minute discussion, and many dealerships offer internet sales persons to deal with people "shopping around". Any mature person can san no and walk away. The internet, and "ordering online", has made people less able to communicate with people in-person. "Would you take this price. No? Thanks for your time..." And nobody stops anyone from paying window sticker price at dealerships

So you enjoy when the salesman disappears for 20 minutes to check with his manager or when they try to only talk in terms of monthly payments and refuse to actually tell you what price you are actually paying or why it takes 4 hours plus to actually purchase the car because of all the back and forth. I actually remember one time I was buying a car before cell phones were common and at the desk I was at had a calculator laying on it. When he started giving me the monthly payment BS and not the true price of the car I started to use the calculator to get my answer. When he left to "talk to the manager" he conventantly took the calculator with him. Yeah I could walk and I did just to go to another dealer and do it all over again. Nobody enjoys playing these games. It has nothing to do about fear of asking for what you want.

The reason people feel the need to haggle is because someone buying the car down the street can pay thousand less For the same thing. If the consumer knows no one else is getting a better deal than them they couldn't care less about haggling. It's all about not being the chump that paid more than they had to.
 
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So you enjoy when the salesman disappears for 20 minutes to check with his manager or when they try to only talk in terms of monthly payments and refuse to actually tell you what price you are actually paying or why it takes 4 hours plus to actually purchase the car because of all the back and forth. I actually remember one time I was buying a car before cell phones were common and at the desk I was at the salesman had a calculator laying on it. When he started giving me the monthly payment BS and not the true price of the car I started to use the calculator to get my answer. When he left to "talk to the manager" he conventantly took the calculator with him. Yeah I could walk and I did just to go to another dealer and do it all over again. Nobody enjoys playing these games. It has nothing to do about fear of asking for what you want.

The reason people feel the need to haggle is because someone buying the car down the street can pay thousand less For the same thing. If the consumer knows no one else is getting a better deal than them they couldn't care less about haggling. It's all about not being the chump that paid more than they had to.

I would also add that many times an internet salesmen is the same sales person you see on the dealership showroom. Dealers will often times delegate its salesperson multiple positions and will con you into believing that they'll accept your offer, and when you show up to the sales room a team from salesmen, managers, directors, sharks and allegators will be thrown at you in hopes that you would accept paying a higher price than what you thought you would be paying, if not then you can walk. Or the ole "we don't negotiate prices over the phone," you'll need to drive the two hours...
 
Tesla is approaching 52 week lows. How will this affect the SP? In my ten years of noob trading I have always had good luck buying when the SP is close to 52 week lows. To me these stocks are cheap as long the company is not at risk of going under. The prolonged silence from Tesla, lack of positive "leaks" and a very conservative 9500 Q1 delivery guidance and 55,000 full year guidance seems like a massive bear trap to destroy bears for good. I suspect Elon is tired of bears shorting the stock that he is going to inflict max pain. They will think twice before shorting Tesla ever again. I expect 12,000 new deliveries just filling orders @ 1000/wk production + 1400 deliveries that were due in Q4 2014 + several hundred demo/loaners that were produced in 2014 is going to make Q1 a huge beat.

If production stayed at 1000 cars/week, it would be pretty impossible for TM to deliver 12,000 cars in Q1, because there are only 11 production weeks in Q1. Elon mentioned that Q1 is actually shorter than other quarters during ER call as well. I would be happy if TM will slightly beat guidance, but hoping that they could beat it by up to a 1,000 cars.

TM guided for 10,000 cars produced and 9,500 delivered. Taking into account that there were 1,400 cars that were manufactured in Q42014, but could not be delivered, it appears that TM planned that the difference - 1,900 cars - be used for filling the pipeline. So if we assume that 1,900 cars are slated to re-fill the pipeline, and there were 11 production weeks at 1,000 cars/week, the maximum that can be delivered in Q1: 11 x 1,000+1,400 - 1,900 = 10,500.

I do have some reasonable hope that TM will deliver more than 9,500 cars in Q1, up to a maximum of 10,500. The following phrase from the note issued by Ben Kallo of Baird, one of the more conservative analysts bullish on TSLA, after visiting the factory:
We, however, left incrementally positive as TSLA continues to ramp Model S production, and commentary was bullish on demand in mature markets and Europe. We see significant upside as numbers are calibrated correctly and we like the Q1 setup.
 

This is excellent news, it shows EVs are winning the battle against fuel cells and would add thousands of jobs to the global economy. A gigafactory in China to produce enough EVs for 1,000,000 vehicles likely won't make a significant dent to 1,500,000,000 Chinese consumers, but it's a good start. Although I have no desire to buy a BYD, I am happy with this news. If a company like BYD can see itself sell 1M EVs by 2020 in China, I have no doubt Tesla can sell 500,000 MS, MX and M3 by the same time frame.

It's wise for Uber to think cheap, China is a developing country, Uber will need to tap the lower end market for cost savings purposes, BYD is perfect for this. After all, traveling by subway or bus will be much cheaper in Shanghai.
 
quote_icon.png
Originally Posted by ev-enthusiast viewpost-right.png

asked about price reduction.
... no way:frown:
Still the same sad story with these Tesla sales guys, not willing to give me a single cent price reduction (unlike my local Audi, BMW dealer).


How about politely remind them they are already saving ~6% off dealer markup. Maybe that could be a calculated figure on the sales form with the total listed as 100% returned to customer.


When people understand the value proposition that tesla offers, and the limited supply, the need to haggle on price
evaporates. The deal must be so superior when compared to ICE , that the desire to game the pricing vanishes.
 
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Ev-enthusiast, I have to take extreme issue with this. This is not a sad story. This is an *excellent* story. To do anything otherwise would be a horrendously bad decision by Tesla. This is the entire business model. The whole point is to offer features for a standard price, no haggling, no dealer ********, just the price is the price and that's all there is to it. If you are looking for a deal, you have the best deal available. Literally nobody will buy the same car for more than you, you are buying it for the lowest possible price to buy it, because it is impossible for anyone to buy it for anything less. This is not the "Tesla sales guys" doing this, this is the company, it's the entire strategy, it's how the thing works, it's what's allowing the company to remain in business, it's the reason the Tesla experience is better, the reason the car is better than other cars in the price range, and to do anything else would deal a massive blow to Tesla's business, to the brand, to acceptance of electric cars, to Tesla's labor costs (sales people wasting time haggling instead of talking about the cars), etc. etc. etc.

If Tesla starts pulling ******** dealer tactics I will be a very VERY angry shareholder and owner. That Tesla sales guy told you exactly what he should be telling you. The whole point is that the Tesla experience is different. In literally every poll you can find where people rank occupations by trustworthiness, or customer experiences by how pleasant they are, car dealers are at the very bottom. Every single time. Below lawyers, dentists, police officers, mechanics, bankers, marketing executives, everything. Sometimes they barely eke by politicians and lobbyists, but often they are below them. Tesla should distance themselves from that as far as possible and standard pricing is a huge component of that.

If you want a deal, go buy a salvage car. Otherwise you get the same price as everyone else. Which is perfect and exactly how it should be.

I absolutely agree.

It is just so different from the experience with purchasing other cars that it needs to be communicated better by Tesla.
 
[FONT=Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Here's my guess for "ending range anxiety". The new mapping software will provide a route to anywhere that the Model S can make it using Superchargers, and will tell you how long to charge at each station. The kicker will be that if you follow the route then Tesla guarantees you will not run out of charge before your destination, and if you don't they will send someone to tow/recharge you for free.[/FONT]

[FONT=Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]It would be awesome if there was some sort of coverage map where Tesla can guarantee anywhere in that coverage map that you can get from point A to point B. I think with the current Supercharge density this would be possible even for the S60 to cover a large majority of the US and EU populations.[/FONT]
 
Haggling is not a requirement at dealerships.

It is if you don't want to get ripped off and be the joke at lunch time. Yes, I know a few car salespeople, and after a few drinks they're happy to tell you all sorts of things that go on behind the scene.

My negatives usually are in the service department setup for maximum income. I think, in general, people who use the haggling complaint have become unable to ask for what they want and cannot negotiate with people directly. Honestly, it is a five minute discussion, and many dealerships offer internet sales persons to deal with people "shopping around". Any mature person can san no and walk away. The internet, and "ordering online", has made people less able to communicate with people in-person.

First of all, the whole 'people don't communicate well face to face any more because of the Internet and social media' didn't become a societal issue until quite recently - the last decade, give or take. Haggling at a car dealership has been around for SEVERAL decades.

Secondly, while I am a person who has less than zero problem telling a sales person (in any industry) to go take a flier, I understand that all humans are not built the same and that there are many people who struggle under the slimy, dishonest, pressure riddled sales tactics often employed, when the other human needs to make the sale to feed his/her own family.

Simply, you have not given an accurate or fair appraisal of the events that happen at dealerships (in general).
 
It is if you don't want to get ripped off and be the joke at lunch time. Yes, I know a few car salespeople, and after a few drinks they're happy to tell you all sorts of things that go on behind the scene.



First of all, the whole 'people don't communicate well face to face any more because of the Internet and social media' didn't become a societal issue until quite recently - the last decade, give or take. Haggling at a car dealership has been around for SEVERAL decades.

Secondly, while I am a person who has less than zero problem telling a sales person (in any industry) to go take a flier, I understand that all humans are not built the same and that there are many people who struggle under the slimy, dishonest, pressure riddled sales tactics often employed, when the other human needs to make the sale to feed his/her own family.

Simply, you have not given an accurate or fair appraisal of the events that happen at dealerships (in general).

I gave a few generalities. My family used to buy at a Chrysler dealership a couple decades ago that offered a fixed price a few K below msrp. Since then, a couple other cars I got in the early 00s and early 10s were demos or year old. Both buys were extremely discounted and no haggling was involved. I guess some places are worse than others and some are quite disingenuous. I am sorry others have had bad times at dealerships. Some are worse than others. For me, I am looking at a future of probably always buying used cars because the biggest ripoff of all is the depreciation. A Model S used can be as good or better than new due to lower depreciation (so far) versus luxury brands.

i posted what I did because the dealership negatives, I feel, may be overblown for some and a normality for others.
 
I posted what I did because the dealership negatives, I feel, may be overblown for some and a normality for others.

Except that the evidence of several polls, online articles, comments in hundreds of venues etc... show an overwhelming view by a large cross section of people around the continent that the dealership experience sucks. And even if most of us are living in a fantasy world where we've overblown the dealership experience, perception can be everything as has often been noted here on TMC - range anxiety, anyone?
 
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