Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Causalien]

Isn't this supposed to be a "quiet period" since it's before ER? Can Elon get in any significant trouble (not just a small fine or anything) for these tweets?

Anyways, hoping for a great next couple of weeks. Flirting with the 200dma hasn't been fun

I read up on quiet periods. Quiet period is self imposed by companies. It is actually not a law.

8 ball says +2.5% Obviously this didn't take into account of Elon's tweet.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Good morning everyone

I think yesterday's bloodbath was a present to all rational and well informed investors. If we follow the definition of the markets being unpredictable and irrational, this was certainly a good opportunity to buy the dip.
The stupidity of some media publishing such BS is far from professional journalism. And what are the market participants doing? exactly, they are selling in panic! certainly, we shouldn't forget the black boxes, algorithm trade machines and so on which all together react very responsive causing the stock to fall further down.
I guess Elon was laughing yesterday but he was sort of pissed as well. This is why he probably felt obliged to tweet the truth disclosing some details he might didn't want - at least not at this time (September was a record high WW and up 65% YoY in NA). Congrats guys!

Next to Elon's tweet, here's a comment from Credit Suisse' Dan Galves:

October 27, 2014 2:13 PM EDT
Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) is coming off the lows as Credit Suisse analyst Dan Galves is out defending the stock after an earlier Dow Jones report. Shares remain down 4.8%.
Galves noted that, up until now, no financial institution would underwrite a lease on Tesla's Model S sedans due to potential loss of residual value. The analyst thinks that US Bank's move indicates that risk has largely subsided.
Galves wouldn't directly comment on today's September sales reports, only indicating that headlines have been too misleading.The analyst believes that it isn't a surprise that Tesla's U.S. sales would be down with the company recently entering European and Asian countries and working to meet demand in those new markets.
Reports might have indicated to market watchers that the Model S is now selling at a discount, with US Bank being able to cut lease costs by up to 25 percent. That move, again, is associated with less resale risk on the Model S and is not an incentive from the automaker or bank.

 

[Causalien]

Today will probably see the forming of W in technical terms inside the one month chart. We will be closing some gaps on the way up.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Deutsche and Baird confirm their PTs

Rod Lache (DB) confirmed his "buy" and $310 PT. Ben Kallo (Baird) stays with his "outperform" and $275 PT.

 

[geturchiru]

I bought my first ever TSLA shares. It was a scheduled purchase @ 230 and happy for this price and thanks to the forum for the articles and news.

 

[jimmyjohn]

Will Elon's Oct 27 tweet --- regarding September comps --- decrease TSLA's price volatility immediately after the Q3 ER?

 

[Johann Koeber]

Congratulations. I am sure you will be very happy in the medium and long term.

I think you are in very good company. More and more people are becoming aware of Tesla and TSLA. There are many people who are buying their first Tesla and TSLA. I am sure this also will give the stock a lot of upward potential in the medium and long term.

Buy and hold. Stockpile on drawbacks.

 

[techmaven]

I figured U.S. sales would be robust in September. With the factory shutdown, it's hard to get deliveries to far flung places and get them delivered in Q3, therefore to meet guidance it would make sense to concentrate deliveries to U.S. and Canada. The question remains, is 65% year over year increase for the U.S. in Sept. enough to meet guidance? In Q3 2013, they delivered 5,500 cars worldwide and 1,000 of them were to Europe.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I figured U.S. sales would be robust in September. With the factory shutdown, it's hard to get deliveries to far flung places and get them delivered in Q3, therefore to meet guidance it would make sense to concentrate deliveries to U.S. and Canada. The question remains, is 65% year over year increase for the U.S. in Sept. enough to meet guidance? In Q3 2013, they delivered 5,500 cars worldwide and 1,000 of them were to Europe.

I understood 65% WW not USA alone

 

[jimmyjohn]

I understood 65% WW not USA alone

"September was a record high WW and up 65% year-over-year in North America"

I'm reading this as +65% NA Sep comps.

 

[AlMc]

"September was a record high WW and up 65% year-over-year in North America"

I'm reading this as +65% NA Sep comps.

That is how I read it as well. Record high WW...excellent, but no firm %; NA: up 65% YOY

 

[FluxCap]

Great trade. I hope you were a lot more aggressive than I was.

God Bless Elon Musk. :smile:

 

[eepic]

Isn't this supposed to be a "quiet period" since it's before ER? Can Elon get in any significant trouble (not just a small fine or anything) for these tweets?

Anyways, hoping for a great next couple of weeks. Flirting with the 200dma hasn't been fun

I believe in a broader context it's also more about selective disclosure during this quiet period. If you disseminate this information to the broad public then there's no issue, you just wouldn't do so close to the ER normally. And twitter is approved as a medium for material disclosures SEC Approves Using Facebook, Twitter for Company Disclosures - Bloomberg

Also, Bloomberg (Betty Liu) has a pretty accurate title going on

Erroneous WSJ Report Sends Tesla Stock Down - Businessweek

 

[Causalien]

In the spirit of fairness since I said I would not post the 8 ball indicator and trade it on the same day. I am disclosing that I have moved ahead with trading TSLA today. A mistake in judgement as I didn't think I'd be trading. But the decision to trade was actually the momentum from a thought I had before, which was leverage 100x to buy up TSLA.

 

[NigelM]

Isn't this supposed to be a "quiet period" since it's before ER? Can Elon get in any significant trouble (not just a small fine or anything) for these tweets?

Theoretically yes. However, the self imposed quiet periods are used by companies to make sure that no segment of the population has access to some information that others don't have. The point is that the company and officers should not being doing anything that would upset a "fair market"; it follows that the pertinent defense here is that the company actually has a duty obligation to correct substantially false information.

 

[FluxCap]

I don't think we can assume what the market has been assuming about Q3 ER anymore. At all.

I think Q3 could be a huge beat.

 

[RationalOptimist]

I don't think we can assume what the market has been assuming about Q3 ER anymore. At all.

I think Q3 could be a huge beat.

I wouldn't get carried away here. Take a look at these monthly sales estimates:

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

InsideEVs estimated last year's US September sales at 1500 and this year's at 2500. That's in line with the increase Elon tweeted. But for the quarter as a whole it's still only 3600 US sales, and given European weakness and uncertainty in China, I wouldn't gamble on a huge beat. Guidance always implied Sept would have to be a record breaking month world wide.

 

[emupilot]

I don't think we can assume what the market has been assuming about Q3 ER anymore. At all.

I think Q3 could be a huge beat.

I don't think Elon's tweet actually provides us useful information about Q3 ER. September certainly ought to have record sales worldwide since they have a higher production rate after the factory re-tool. Knowing that North American sales are up 65% is also not very helpful since the proportions delivered to North America vs everyone else vary drastically month to month.

 

[FluxCap]

Fair points, but the "Q3 miss" story has been so oversold, a data point like this makes me reasonably confident that other execution will be at least in line with guidance, if not better.

 

[emupilot]

InsideEVs estimated last year's US September sales at 1500 and this year's at 2500. That's in line with the increase Elon tweeted. But for the quarter as a whole it's still only 3600 US sales, and given European weakness and uncertainty in China, I wouldn't gamble on a huge beat. Guidance always implied Sept would have to be a record breaking month world wide.

I wouldn't bet on a beat either, but economic conditions in Europe and China are irrelevant with respect to Q3 since there has been backlog of orders.