Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Papafox]

I suspect today's action only due to lack of earth shattering news yesterday. A lot of short term plays out there in anticipation of surprise announcement but not really much new, just steady execution of the plan. So those positions liquidated.

Chickenlittle, that's a reasonable explanation. What we need now is for Panasonic to sign a gigafactory agreement with Tesla and for tentative GF sites to be named so that the permitting process can begin. Once these steps are taken we will see an advance in the stock price. My point was that with bad information out there that the GF decision would be delayed until year end, some traders may have been influenced by the bogus news. It's possible some traders may still be misinformed, and thus an announcement of GF site choices would be doubly important.

 

[Curt Renz]

Misinformation has been given regarding the timetable for selecting gigafactory sites and beginning prelimiary work.

Today's TSLA price may have been adversely affected by a reporting error that stated the gigafactory location decision has been put off until the end of the year. Please see:
http://teslamondo.com/2014/06/03/shareholder-meeting-takeaways/

It'll be interesting to see if some rebound occurs tomorrow as people realize this reported delay in gigafactory was incorrect.

That erroneous interpretation was repeated as fact and headlined today by Zacks as it appeared in my TD Ameritrade account. Back in my day we financial journalists went to the ultimate source for verification of matters that could affect stock prices. Nowadays they lazily paraphrase each other's publications, which leads to garbled results similar to those of the children's telephone game. In court they can claim absence of malice. Nevertheless, investors can be damaged.

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$200 will not hold. IMHO.

What is your reasoning? Is it any more than the hopes of a short seller?

 

[brysondad]

Just a guess. U obviously don't agree. I'm just journaling my opinion on "paper" to track later. No position in tsla

 

[TSLAopt]

Just a guess. U obviously don't agree. I'm just journaling my opinion on "paper" to track later. No position in tsla

My journaled guess is we're consolidating down to 200ish after a quick bounce back from 180 to 210...however, I think the price will begin appreciating again soon back towards 250 and perhaps new ATH. Latest this next run will happen in my opinion would be end of July as word gets out to institutional investors (before us retail investors) of their new production growth after the July retooling...

I am pretty sure my returns on TSLA have been much better than brysondad

 

[Auzie]

Just a guess. U obviously don't agree. I'm just journaling my opinion on "paper" to track later. No position in tsla

I assume you are likely looking for a good entry point for bull or bear trade, otherwise why would anyone invest their time in something they have no position in.

 

[brysondad]

I assume you are likely looking for a good entry point for bull or bear trade, otherwise why would anyone invest their time in something they have no position in.

I spend 10% of time holding a position; 90% time running scenarios. Very timing dependent... For good or bad

 

[brysondad]

My journaled guess is we're consolidating down to 200ish after a quick bounce back from 180 to 210...however, I think the price will begin appreciating again soon back towards 250 and perhaps new ATH. Latest this next run will happen in my opinion would be end of July as word gets out to institutional investors (before us retail investors) of their new production growth after the July retooling...

I am pretty sure my returns on TSLA have been much better than brysondad

Maybe u r right... Or wrong... I wouldn't brag about ur return size to strangers on the internet... U have no idea the amount of $ folks are making/losing on tsla.

 

[Auzie]

That erroneous interpretation was repeated as fact and headlined today by Zacks as it appeared in my TD Ameritrade account. Back in my day we financial journalists went to the ultimate source for verification of matters that could affect stock prices. Nowadays they lazily paraphrase each other's publications, which leads to garbled results similar to those of the children's telephone game. In court they can claim absence of malice. Nevertheless, investors can be damaged.

I doubt that Zacs has much influence on investors.

Analysts and journalists are becoming redundant due to information being easily accessible. If someone is having enough money to invest, they are as capable as anyone else of sourcing and processing data. I used to have a subscription to financial analysis but gave it up. I have to do the work rather than trusting someone else's opinion. Data subscription is likely to replace research and analysis subscription.

 

[Papafox]

Just a guess. U obviously don't agree. I'm just journaling my opinion on "paper" to track later. No position in tsla

Bysondad,
I just reviewed about thirty of your previous posts and although you don't typically give any reason, the consistent characteristic of your posts is that the stock is going to drop, perhaps alot. What we members of the forum ask of others is to contribute to the forum. If you have a reason why you think something is going to happen then say it, but if you just are consistently predicting doom for the stock then you clearly are here to carry out an agenda rather than to be a responsible forum member.

 

[TSLAopt]

Bysondad,
I just reviewed about thirty of your previous posts and although you don't typically give any reason, the consistent characteristic of your posts is that the stock is going to drop, perhaps alot. What we members of the forum ask of others is to contribute to the forum. If you have a reason why you think something is going to happen then say it, but if you just are consistently predicting doom for the stock then you clearly are here to carry out an agenda rather than to be a responsible forum member.

+100

 

[green1]

The interpretation of the gigafactory timeline may be incorrect, however it should also be noted that it's starting to be quite a while since we were going to break ground in "just a few weeks" and obviously that has not happened. Personally my expectation is for the stock to stay steady and/or slight down slope until we see shovels in the ground, at which point we'll see some positive action. Tesla right now has a perceived problem with delivering on promises, they are behind schedule on a lot of projects and very little actual action to back up the many promises they're continuing to add to the backlog. I think investors need to see some things actually happen, not just added to the list of things that are going to happen some time "soon"

get a shovel in the ground for a gigafactory, that will get the stock moving upwards again.

 

[AlMc]

The first Right hand car delivery in England this weekend should get some positive press and a slight bump in price. I agree it may not be big but it is another positive development.

 

[green1]

The first Right hand car delivery in England this weekend should get some positive press and a slight bump in price. I agree it may not be big but it is another positive development.

Problem with this is that adding availability in more countries without adding manufacturing capability doesn't increase sales any, in fact it only adds more costs, the same number of vehicles would have sold in a different market had they not sold in England. The big bottleneck to increased production is battery production, and the way they plan to solve that is the gigafactory, it is perceived that there is nothing happening at all with gigafactory right now, so there's no reason for a positive stock movement.
I predict we'll see renewed investor confidence when the shovels hit the ground (or possibly some minor movement with a simple location announcement)

 

[EnergyMax]

The interpretation of the gigafactory timeline may be incorrect, however it should also be noted that it's starting to be quite a while since we were going to break ground in "just a few weeks" and obviously that has not happened. Personally my expectation is for the stock to stay steady and/or slight down slope until we see shovels in the ground, at which point we'll see some positive action. Tesla right now has a perceived problem with delivering on promises, they are behind schedule on a lot of projects and very little actual action to back up the many promises they're continuing to add to the backlog. I think investors need to see some things actually happen, not just added to the list of things that are going to happen some time "soon"

get a shovel in the ground for a gigafactory, that will get the stock moving upwards again.

I believe JB said "end of June" not "a few weeks." I was hoping there would be more questions on when the announcement would be made at the shareholders meeting.

 

[AlMc]

Problem with this is that adding availability in more countries without adding manufacturing capability doesn't increase sales any, in fact it only adds more costs, the same number of vehicles would have sold in a different market had they not sold in England. The big bottleneck to increased production is battery production, and the way they plan to solve that is the gigafactory, it is perceived that there is nothing happening at all with gigafactory right now, so there's no reason for a positive stock movement.
I predict we'll see renewed investor confidence when the shovels hit the ground (or possibly some minor movement with a simple location announcement)

Totally agree. That is why I think the England delivery news will be a small bump, and maybe not a lasting one. But, it is the next possible positive development on the horizon. Someone actually identifying publicly the site of one, two or three of the gigafactories will be a major catalyst but I expect that later in the month or possibly not even till July.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The interpretation of the gigafactory timeline may be incorrect, however it should also be noted that it's starting to be quite a while since we were going to break ground in "just a few weeks" and obviously that has not happened. Personally my expectation is for the stock to stay steady and/or slight down slope until we see shovels in the ground, at which point we'll see some positive action. Tesla right now has a perceived problem with delivering on promises, they are behind schedule on a lot of projects and very little actual action to back up the many promises they're continuing to add to the backlog. I think investors need to see some things actually happen, not just added to the list of things that are going to happen some time "soon"

get a shovel in the ground for a gigafactory, that will get the stock moving upwards again.

Could you provide a link indicating why do you think that a time-frame given for breaking GF ground did not materialize?

The last we heard about the breaking ground for GF was during the ER call on May 7th - EM indicated that they will be breaking ground at the first GF Site in June. So TM have till the end of this month to break ground before anybody can claim that it "obviously" did not happened. As far as I remember this actually was the only reference to a more or less specific time-frame for the breaking ground.

 

[SteveG3]

The interpretation of the gigafactory timeline may be incorrect, however it should also be noted that it's starting to be quite a while since we were going to break ground in "just a few weeks" and obviously that has not happened. Personally my expectation is for the stock to stay steady and/or slight down slope until we see shovels in the ground, at which point we'll see some positive action. Tesla right now has a perceived problem with delivering on promises, they are behind schedule on a lot of projects and very little actual action to back up the many promises they're continuing to add to the backlog. I think investors need to see some things actually happen, not just added to the list of things that are going to happen some time "soon"

get a shovel in the ground for a gigafactory, that will get the stock moving upwards again.

First time I remember them saying "in a few weeks" was on the Q1 earnings call... that was four weeks ago. I wont be surprised if we get to the point where we are a month or two past when they'd said ground breaking would begin without it happening, but why don't we hold off on saying "it's been a while since we were going to break ground," until we're actually there.

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Problem with this is that adding availability in more countries without adding manufacturing capability doesn't increase sales any, in fact it only adds more costs, the same number of vehicles would have sold in a different market had they not sold in England. The big bottleneck to increased production is battery production, and the way they plan to solve that is the gigafactory, it is perceived that there is nothing happening at all with gigafactory right now, so there's no reason for a positive stock movement.
I predict we'll see renewed investor confidence when the shovels hit the ground (or possibly some minor movement with a simple location announcement)

green1, don't mean to pick on you, but I disagree with this as well,

The gigafactory is needed to allow battery supply for Gen III, not S/X. Sure, some of that production might go to S/X demand if it there is demand for over 100K/year S/X, but at this point the contract they signed with Panasonic last fall looks like it will get Tesla to the 70-100K/year production range for S/X. So the new markets are worth openning up. Coming at this from a slightly different angle Elon has suggested 1000+/week production exiting this year and double that exiting 2015, obviously without any Gigafactory packs.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Problem with this is that adding availability in more countries without adding manufacturing capability doesn't increase sales any, in fact it only adds more costs, the same number of vehicles would have sold in a different market had they not sold in England. The big bottleneck to increased production is battery production, and the way they plan to solve that is the gigafactory, it is perceived that there is nothing happening at all with gigafactory right now, so there's no reason for a positive stock movement.
I predict we'll see renewed investor confidence when the shovels hit the ground (or possibly some minor movement with a simple location announcement)

I do not see any problem with RHD deliveries. In fact there are indications that production was increased from about 700 cars/week as was mentioned during the May 7 ER call to at least 800 cars per week based on the Ben Kallo report:

Tesla top stock pick for 2014: Analyst

 

[MartinAustin]

adding availability in more countries without adding manufacturing capability doesn't increase sales any, in fact it only adds more costs, the same number of vehicles would have sold in a different market ... so there's no reason for a positive stock movement.

Wrong, in my opinion... the more countries have Teslas driving around, the more visibility the company will get to retail investors, and the more demand there will be for TSLA stock. So while it won't affect the number of vehicles produced each year... the stock will benefit from increased visibility every time a new national border is crossed.

 

[EnergyMax]

Wrong, in my opinion... the more countries have Teslas driving around, the more visibility the company will get to retail investors, and the more demand there will be for TSLA stock. So while it won't affect the number of vehicles produced each year... the stock will benefit from increased visibility every time a new national border is crossed.

Agreed. Additionally Tesla selling in multiple markets reduces the risk of being associated with one irrational market. Multiple markets are less suspectable to FUD ( eg the shorts' f**e attack.). I'm glad US media now has less influence on Tesla sales.