I think Amazon might be a better comparison.
you saying amzn is currently fairly valued at P/E 450 something? I think amzn has a long way to grow INTO this valuation.
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I think Amazon might be a better comparison.
Yeah, but the stock price is what it is. Who's arguing with reality now?you saying amzn is currently fairly valued at P/E 450 something? I think amzn has a long way to grow INTO this valuation.
QER1: good. expected. but TSLA is not priced for good; it's priced for world changer, elon-sainthood, mother earth blah blah blah... One thing though... if the question about gigafactory & panasonic were not asked, am i to understand that TSLA would not have announced the Letter of Intent news? Tesla said its no big deal... may they are right... LOI is no big deal...
you saying amzn is currently fairly valued at P/E 450 something? I think amzn has a long way to grow INTO this valuation.
As dmunjal pointed out, AMZN is still growing into its valuation. Its stock returned 600% over the last 10 years, with no profits to speak of. WMT returned 47% over the same period.
If you're waiting to buy the stock after it's grown, you're doing it wrong.
I'm saying that TSLA can be like AMZN in that it will grow very well while making very little earnings to show for it because it keeps making large capital investments. That would result in a very high P/E.
I prefer to buy them before the value is recognized by the market at large.
Just saying... Hence you buy companies at/close to value. not expensive as defined by p/e.
I prefer to buy them before the value is recognized by the market at large.
You are talking about agreed-upon value, or conforming-with-arbitrary-financial-metrics value. We are talking about real value which is as yet unrecognized, or misunderstood.
Agreed!markets are made up of diverse opinions manifested via buyers/sellers. We have to agree to disagree.
As for Model X, I think some people are missing the fact that if it slips, they'll just make more Model S's. With roughly the same ASP's and likely ongoing demand, it is not the case that slippage of the Model X ship date means less sales for Tesla. If they don't make a Model X vehicle earlier, they'll make a Model S instead. Therefore, discounting the stock based on either delivery scheduling issues or Model X slippage is nuts. Again, if they had issues with homogenization in RHD markets causing a 1 month delay, it's not like those cars aren't being sold. Tesla has already pre-sold the quarter's production and does that every quarter. I think this point is where a lot of people misunderstand Tesla when comparing to traditional car manufacturers. For the Cadillac ELR, for instance, they made a production run and GM counts those cars as sold. There are quite a few of these "sold" ELR's sitting on dealer lots. If these do not sell in Q1, they sit into Q2. And then into Q3. They don't crank up the line to build more ELR's yet. On the other hand, each Model S rolling of the line has already been sold to the end customer (unless it is one of the few demo units). If it didn't make it to the end customer that quarter, it will next quarter. That one quarter delay does not impede the next quarter's sales. With this kind of production constraints and pre-order level, we have not probed the depths of demand in any way. And with the Supercharger network building out and people increasingly seeing Tesla Model S's in the wild, demand is likely going to increase. Tesla confirmed that NA order levels were up 10% quarter over quarter, even though early Q1 is likely a soft automotive sales quarter. Customer deposits quarter over quarter are also up.
I think the stock dropping like this reflects both subtle and large misunderstandings of Tesla's business by both retail and professional investors as well as a poor macro environment which will correct itself in due time. Not understanding how Tesla re-invests money into a dynamically growing business is very curious. In the short term, we have significant news coming with Gigafactory site selection and then ground breaking coming right up.
Amen.
Fair enough, but it is entirely possible to believe that TSLA is misunderstood, without being beholden to an us-vs-them mentality. Again, reasonable people may and do disagree about TSLA. That's why there's money to be made in it.you maybe right, and TSLA a bargain currently. I'd just caution against the us-against-the-world mentality that Tesla is misunderstood.
:wink:Fair enough, but it is entirely possible to believe that TSLA is misunderstood, without being beholden to an us-vs-them mentality. Again, reasonable people may and do disagree about TSLA. That's why there's money to be made in it.
Also did everyone suddenly forget the short interest and the potential for the 3rd squeeze as the GF plays out and (once again) new value investors come in and the shorts get caught (again) with their pants (shorts) down?
Certainly not, I'm lubed up and ready! :biggrin:
That's more ambiguous than you probably meant it .Certainly not, I'm lubed up and ready! :biggrin:
I'm saying that TSLA can be like AMZN in that it will grow very well while making very little earnings to show for it because it keeps making large capital investments. That would result in a very high P/E.
It's perhaps worth noting that Tesla really doesn't intent to make profit for a very, very long time beyond what's necessary to stay afloat. Elon's goal is to accelerate EV adoption, not make money. Consequently, they'll be shoving every revenue penny back into Tesla for a long time.
Tesla guided to barely being cash flow neutral for the year in the ER as they spend for the X and the Gigafactory. But they could basically say they intend to stay relatively cash flow neutral for the next, what, 5 years?