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While I agree that TM is supply constrained it is still very important that TM show strong reservation numbers from China. TM seems to keep reservation numbers very tight to the vest so I doubt we will find a way to track them and be left with hoping we hear big numbers reported by TM in Guidance calls at Q1 and Q2 ERs.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say.
It's not being retrofit on new cars, it already exists and requires no special accounting. There's a charge of some sort to retrofit existing cars that will have to be marked on the books somehow. That's going to create a financial hit at some point. That's the way every retrofit works whether mandatory by recall or voluntary.
Oh Please! Everyone here knows Tesla is production constrained.
Very high reservation numbers out of China have the potential to make TSLA pop!
It will provide insight to the future of Tesla.
....do you disagree that if only 4k Tesla's have been reserved in China that TSLA will drop?
NigelM
Recovering Member
You're correct that the retrofit is one-off but brysondad is making the point that ongoing material costs potentially increase on every new car made, unless the new parts can be offset with parts/materials savings somewhere else.
IOW: normally an additional component(s) is going to add costs, which means reduced margin if price doesn't increase.
It would be an interesting 'bean counting' exercise to try to figure out which is more costly in the long run: adding the plate on the production line vs replacing a few cars that TM will 'give' people in the event of a battery fire.
It is also about time for a slight price increase of the base model to cover the cost of the plate I would imagine.
The plate will have a <1% effect on gross margins. Probly closer to .2-3%. That is, they will probably still go up despite the plate.
The per-car ongoing cost would be tiny compared to the retrofit cost. It's all automated on assembly lines, basically just parts cost on each car.
The retrofits require shop time and labor and shipping costs, which almost assuredly dwarfs the materials cost. That's why I'm wondering when that one-time hit will be for the retrofits. If it's all set aside in Q1, that'll put a crimp in Q1's profit numbers.
It will be done wth standard scheduled service, which means it will be spread out over a year.
For anyone concerned about the cost of titanium, somebody in the thread linked below was able to handle the part in a service center and estimated the weight at only around 1 pound. The raw material cost of that much titanium is less than $10! Of course some alloys may be more expensive than others, but it clearly isn't anything significant.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/29223-Tesla-adds-Titanium-Underbody-Shield-to-Model-S
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/29223-Tesla-adds-Titanium-Underbody-Shield-to-Model-S
hockeythug
Active Member
As mentioned in the Q4 letter, "small design improvements, better supplier prices and economies of scale" will continue to increase gross margins and most certainly offset the immaterial cost of the retrofit.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I have to second this. The OEM tires for 21" rims on the Model S are either Continental Extreme Contact DW, or Michelin Pilot Sport PS2 (for P85+). Neither is recommended for use in "near freezing" temperatures. Both tires have excellent dry and wet road performance in their intended application.
The 19" Cyclone wheels combined with Michelin Primacy MXM4 Grand Touring All Season are IMO the best combination for a long road trip.
Without an actual picture of the car being used for this trip it's impossible to say exactly which tires are being used. What I want to know is where are they keeping their luggage? The frunk surely cannot hold suitcases for 7 people.
Here is my chart for TSLA.
I really don't mean to sound whiny but living in a state of "another day, another drop" in the face all the good news coming out about Tesla is getting old. The last time we saw the stochastics flatline was in November after Q3 and the fires. This time however, it's through a stellar quarter, NHTSA all clear, high short interest, oversold indicators, etc.
The only good thing I see from all this is it appears that TSLA may have hit a double bottom of sorts, at least according to my chart. Let's see where it goes tomorrow.
I really don't mean to sound whiny but living in a state of "another day, another drop" in the face all the good news coming out about Tesla is getting old. The last time we saw the stochastics flatline was in November after Q3 and the fires. This time however, it's through a stellar quarter, NHTSA all clear, high short interest, oversold indicators, etc.
The only good thing I see from all this is it appears that TSLA may have hit a double bottom of sorts, at least according to my chart. Let's see where it goes tomorrow.
I think some of the run-up to $260 was too fast and based on JP doubling up on GF stationary storage market potential, which was downplayed (in scope not in commitment) to them later by Tesla mgmnt (per their visit report). I think about half the drop is unwinding of this, the other half a market track, coupled with a known downplay of Q1 expectation (Tesla comments on deliveries etc.). I'm taken by surprise at the total of all these like most everyone- I thought we would flatten for a while around the $240 area, so not saying I predicted it any better. But I think some of this drop (as opposed to the fire drop) is actually from a bit too strong an up charge. Agree this looks like some bottom consolidation here (outside of further market drops), so pretty much all in again from this corner (although I'm a long term slow trader, so take that with a grain pepper and a lot of salt). good luck to all longs!
O'Reilly chimes in
Maybe he's the boost we need?
haha
O’Reilly: Conservatives Should ‘Rethink’ Alternative Energy, Root for Tesla to Succeed
Maybe he's the boost we need?
haha
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
O'Reilly chimes in
O’Reilly: Conservatives Should ‘Rethink’ Alternative Energy, Root for Tesla to Succeed
Maybe he's the boost we need?
Wow. First Newt Gingrich, now O'Reilly.
O'Reilly chimes in
O’Reilly: Conservatives Should ‘Rethink’ Alternative Energy, Root for Tesla to Succeed
Maybe he's the boost we need?
Wow, well that's something different, you're right. (Or actually he's 'right' and you're correct
'He mocked Brian Williams for painting a grim picture of the planet’s future and saying “you cannot destroy your economy… while embracing some kind of phantom global warming theory, even if that theory one day might be valid.” '
Of course by the time it's phantom-nis becomes O'Reillity-ville (read reality in O'Reilly-ville), it's in Atlantis (read underwater). To Bill's credit, there's definitely a shift there in the right(scratch that), the 'correct' direction. Fortunately Elon and team are way ahead of that making a car that's better than the current comparative regardless. Instead of hoping for Tesla to success, maybe some viewers will buy one. Anyway, thanks for post link @justdoit. Interesting slow turn to the center lane indeed
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