Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[pGo]

For all those roadster owners. You are in for a surprise next week.. New roadster update announcement coming next week! (source Elon's twitter).
Should have bought some calls on close. Oh well, I'm sure I'll get the opportunity monday morning.

Here is the tweet:
Elon Musk on Twitter:

 

[hershey101]

Here is the tweet:
Elon Musk on Twitter:

What I don't like are "several crisis issues with higher priority".... We know two of them were related to the P85D delay... What else has been going on at Tesla that can negatively affect Q4?

 

[The Blue Owl]

What I don't like are "several crisis issues with higher priority".... We know two of them were related to the P85D delay... What else has been going on at Tesla that can negatively affect Q4?

On the upside, whatever they were, they are out of the way now, and Elon gets to keep his word:

Q: When will we get a new Roadster?
A: We are planning an update for it, we're hoping to do it this year. We'll do something before the end of this year. A next gen roadster is 5 years away.

 

[ckessel]

Summary of Trip Chowdry's comment

• Tesla’s Factory in Fremont is currently manufacturing about 1,200 to1,250 cars per week
• Demand continues to outstrip Supply: Everyday probably between 170 to 200 of Model S are being booked

Demand is barely outstripping supply if those numbers are accurate. The low end of demand is less than the low end of supply (170*7 = 1190 vs 1200).

 

[32no]

Demand is barely outstripping supply if those numbers are accurate. The low end of demand is less than the low end of supply (170*7 = 1190 vs 1200).

Orders come in everyday of every week. Cars are produced only 5 days a week and not every week.

 

[RobStark]

Demand is barely outstripping supply if those numbers are accurate.

That is exactly what you want not angry customers waiting years for their car.

Levers remaining to be pulled. Like Model X. Supercharger networks in Australia,Italy, and Spain not just a handful.

Unquarantining Texas. Captive Finance Company. A tv commercial or two that generates 100x free media.

 

[RyanT]

Demand is barely outstripping supply if those numbers are accurate. The low end of demand is less than the low end of supply (170*7 = 1190 vs 1200).

If you take this as true it would be 62-73k cars per year (70-200 x 365). Well ahead of 50k that was brought up at the last ER.

 

[Johan]

Guys I just came home from a night out with the boys. At a local pub here in Drammen, Norway I see a guy with a Tesla sweater. Turns out he was a technician from California who had been here 2 weeks to train the Norwegian techs concerning DU replacements. He said not to worry about a clunk at low speeds but do worry about one at high speed going from acceleration to regen and back.

I showed him Elon's blog post, which he had not seen, and his first reaction was: Did he [Elon] really go through with it???

Be also said there was already a P85D here in Norway in "disguise " (de-badged) for testing purposes! (shhh...)

 

[RobStark]

If you take this as true it would be 62-73k cars per year (70-200 x 365). Well ahead of 50k that was brought up at the last ER.

Elon said current demand is annualized at 70k.

But believes initial surge of demand for P85D is not sustainable.

Long term demand is believed to be 50k per year.

There is the matter if Tesla will be able to finally break through domestic bias in Germany and Japan or will it remain a long term sales dud in those markets.

 

[pGo]

One correction. Elon did not specifically say P85D when he said 70k rate. I suppose the best selling model is 85D.

 

[RobStark]

One correction. Elon did not specifically say P85D when he said 70k rate. I suppose the best selling model is 85D.

He specifically said he did not expect the surge in P85D orders to continue. From what I heard he did not specifically say anything about 85D. But yes that will likely be the biggest selling model but it is not being delivered this month, not until March. The P85D is being delivered now.

The typical P85D buyer probably owns more than 3 cars and does not need to sell a current car or wait for anything else to afford a P85D. Whereas your typical 85D customer is more likely your 2-3 car upper middle class family that buys cars on a schedule of every couple of years.

 

[techmaven]

What I don't like are "several crisis issues with higher priority".... We know two of them were related to the P85D delay... What else has been going on at Tesla that can negatively affect Q4?

He also runs SpaceX, and they recently had a static fire that didn't go quite right. And of course, the P85D seat issues.

 

[aznt1217]

He also runs SpaceX, and they recently had a static fire that didn't go quite right. And of course, the P85D seat issues.

Chances are it was a mix of spacex and model s part delays due to inclement weather

 

[InTheShadows]

For all those roadster owners. You are in for a surprise next week.. New roadster update announcement coming next week! (source Elon's twitter).
Should have bought some calls on close. Oh well, I'm sure I'll get the opportunity monday morning.

That is awesome news for the roadster owners, however I'm not sure it's something that will really move the stock.

 

[Krugerrand]

He also runs SpaceX, and they recently had a static fire that didn't go quite right. And of course, the P85D seat issues.

Static fire today was successful. They are on target for their Jan 6 launch date.

Oh, on topic....I believe the stock is going to go up in the short term. And I loff unicorns!

 

[Chickenlittle]

What I don't like are "several crisis issues with higher priority".... We know two of them were related to the P85D delay... What else has been going on at Tesla that can negatively affect Q4?

My initial thought as well. I think he really should have someone ( maybe himself even) retread his proposed tweets before posting them

 

[Jack6591]

What I don't like are "several crisis issues with higher priority".... We know two of them were related to the P85D delay... What else has been going on at Tesla that can negatively affect Q4?

I'm left wondering what the crisis issues were, and what their solutions were.

 

[Muskol]

I don't think we can assume the crises are recent or Q4 specific. The 'something special' for Roadster owners was first mentioned by Elon a while back (TESLIVE 2013?) and then committed to end of the year at the Shareholder Meeting this summer. Last years fires and unexpected delays/downtime for the factory upgrade this summer could be some of the crises that took priority.

 

[NigelM]

That is awesome news for the roadster owners, however I'm not sure it's something that will really move the stock.

Nobody knows if it's "awesome" news; hopefully it's good news on replacement battery options, but whether anyone considers it "awesome" may depend on the price. And no, it's very unlikely to move the stock.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think we can assume the crises are recent or Q4 specific. The 'something special' for Roadster owners was first mentioned by Elon a while back (TESLIVE 2013?) and then committed to end of the year at the Shareholder Meeting this summer.

The first promise from Elon was a Tweet on 5/8/13.

 

[AlMc]

The Roadster battery news, while good for Roadster owners, will have little/no impact on TSLA IMO. The only way it moves the stock if the formal announcement includes mention that the battery has improved cell technology allowing for greater density and/or less weight to the pack.