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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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#10,901
Thinking back to the recent earnings and noticed that the drop now is what I expected as soon as the results were out. Somehow, the stock kept on going up. Main reason was the growth of Model S sales Tesla showed into 2015. The dark side (and correct criticism) was the production issues.

Any hint that production issues have been addressed will be a huge relief. I agree with some here that Tesla must show short term execution while addressing long term goals.
 
#10,906
The drop today has more to do with the VIX being up 20 percent, after Oil fell 5 percent. The drop in oil likely spooked fund managers who had to raise money quickly, explaining why Apple, one of the most liquid stocks on the stock market, fell 2 percent today.
 
#10,908
mejojo said:
Exactly which production issues are you referring to?
Click to expand...

I meant Q4 production guidance due to retooling. Also, PD in the other thread is a bit of a concern as many complain that their car has been in production for more than 2 weeks. The delivery date is being delayed. This puts pressure if Tesla can meet revised guidance. Though, I feel positive about PD wait time to be December. Reason is that Tesla still thinks that all PD orders so far will be delivered in December.
 
#10,911
drinkerofkoolaid said:
Launch event in Australia in 10 hours. Anyone know if Tesla is planning something for the event?

#Tesla Australia Dec. 9 Live Event Coverage - TESLARATI.com

The last time Tesla's RSI was this low was November 21, 2013.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the alert and link. The website's time zone conversions may be incorrect, since Sydney is currently on AEDT (Australian Eastern Daylight Time, UT+11) not AEST (UT+10).

EDIT: I see that after I commented on their website about the time zone conversions, the corrections have now been made.

Will Elon be there in Sydney?

Regarding the RSI, it was also nearly as low on 2014 MAY 08, the date I went heavily into LEAPs. Both dates marked important bottoms for the share price, as is expected with such low RSI readings since they suggest an oversold condition.
 
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#10,912
Note several RSI LOWs in last 2 years:

11/18/2013: 27.92 (Market bottom out @ 116.1 on 11/26/2013)
05/08/2014: 33.69 (Market bottom out @177.22 on 05/09/2014)
10/13/2014: 30.11 (Market bottom out @217.32 on 10/15/2014)
12/08/2014: 29.67

I expect this downturn is in the same magnitude with post fire downturn. We are getting close to the bottom but not there yet.



Curt Renz said:
Thanks for the alert and link. The website's time zone conversions may be incorrect, since Sydney is currently on AEDT (Australian Eastern Daylight Time, UT+11) not AEST (UT+10).

Will Elon be there in Sydney?

Regarding the RSI, it was also nearly as low on 2014 MAY 08, the date I went heavily into LEAPs. Both dates marked important bottoms for the share price, as is expected with such low RSI readings since they suggest an oversold condition.
Click to expand...
 
#10,913
Let's see what's announced in Australia. On an aside, Germany is going to announce very significant incentives for Electric Vehicle sales on Wednesday.

"The government incentive plan calls for allowing companies to write off as much as 90% of the value of vehicles used for business purposes."

http://www.moneyeconomics.com/headlines/germany-expected-to-approve-tax-incentives-for-electric-cars/

It's amazing that zero news sources have mentioned the vote on incentives in Germany, or how it will effect Tesla.
 
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#10,914
maoing said:
Note several RSI LOWs in last 2 years:

11/18/2013: 27.92 (Market bottom out @ 116.1 on 11/26/2013)
05/08/2014: 33.69 (Market bottom out @177.22 on 05/09/2014)
10/13/2014: 30.11 (Market bottom out @217.32 on 10/15/2014)
12/08/2014: 29.67

I expect this downturn is in the same magnitude with post fire downturn. We are getting close to the bottom but not there yet.
Click to expand...

As the author of a book on technical analysis published by McGraw-Hill, I see meaning in the RSI and more. Some technicians analyzing TSLA are today detecting a Head & Shoulders pattern, which I’ve found to be an unreliable indicator in the 21st century. Elliott Wave analysis has been working better for me, especially when the waves are clear. In the case of Tesla Motors, I see a powerful five-wave up move from February 2013 (when I bought my shares) through September 2014. This has been followed by the normally expected three-wave downward correction from September 2014 through today. This suggests another strong five-wave up move could soon follow.
 
#10,915
Curt Renz said:
As the author of a book on technical analysis published by McGraw-Hill, I see meaning in the RSI and more. Some technicians analyzing TSLA are today detecting a Head & Shoulders pattern, which I’ve found to be an unreliable indicator in the 21st century. Elliott Wave analysis has been working better for me, especially when the waves are clear. In the case of Tesla Motors, I see a powerful five-wave up move from February 2013 (when I bought my shares) through September 2014. This has been followed by the normally expected three-wave downward correction from September 2014 through today. This suggests another strong five-wave up move could soon follow.
Click to expand...

Would you care to post a chart of this? I don't see the 3 wave correction Elliott... It seems too short and I don't see the three waves.

Anyway, Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. Bulls were pigs at $290, bears will be pigs at (?). One look at seeking alpha and you can tell that the pigs are gathered at the poker table and they are all all-in.
 
#10,916
drinkerofkoolaid said:
Let's see what's announced in Australia. On an aside, Germany is going to announce very significant incentives for Electric Vehicle sales on Wednesday.

"The government incentive plan calls for allowing companies to write off as much as 90% of the value of vehicles used for business purposes."

http://www.moneyeconomics.com/headlines/germany-expected-to-approve-tax-incentives-for-electric-cars/

It's amazing that zero news sources have mentioned the vote on incentives in Germany, or how it will effect Tesla.
Click to expand...

German government seems to be light years ahead of Australian government in respect of government incentives for electric vehicles.

Australian government is going backwards, so my expectations for good news from Australia are zilch.
 
#10,917
Rumor said Elon won't be personally in Austraulia delivery ceremony, so don't expect good news from there. Right now the stock up and down dictated by P85D clarification, either cause of delay or EPA range. Until TM publish a blog, it's not optimistic. Today is the 7th down day, historically it only happened twice on TSLA.

A seeking alpha article put some interesting observations:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2740425-tesla-7-down-days-and-counting

As shown, seven days is the longest losing streak it has had. The only other time this occurred was back in January 2013. The only reason we're noting it is because following that seven-day losing streak, the stock turned around and proceeded to go up over the next eight days. Tesla bulls would be happy with just one day of gains at this point.
Click to expand...

I don't expect we'll have 8 up days from tomorrow. 2-3 days would be a great relief if there won't be 8th EVER down day.
 
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