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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Elon said they achieved extra range, Tesla web site for a few weeks listed it at 295, later lowered to 285, many paid $130k & if this ends up being accurate then Tesla has a problem.
IIRC it said 275 then it was raised to 285. I only saw 295 for the 85D. 94 MPGe highway is 5% better than original Model S. So the original Model S was 261 @65mph so this one gets 274 @65mph which is in line with the original number but not the revised upwards number. Don't know if it should be a controversy or not. Keep in mind current Model S is listed as 285 miles @65mph. My thought is it might actually be 285 miles @65mph being that is what it is said on the website so maybe the delay is they are working on new stickers that show this. That would be upper 90s highway MPGe.
 
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Elon said they achieved extra range, Tesla web site for a few weeks listed it at 295, later lowered to 285, many paid $130k & if this ends up being accurate then Tesla has a problem.

I think they hedged their "truthiness" by saying more range at 65mph. To the casual observer 265 EPA of non-D vs. 242 of D is no bueno. Think we're in for a world of hurt once the FUD takes hold.
 
I think they hedged their "truthiness" by saying more range at 65mph. To the casual observer 265 EPA of non-D vs. 242 of D is no bueno. Think we're in for a world of hurt once the FUD takes hold.
If the hurt comes it could be a good buying opportunity because their will be a blog post explaining the details. Anyway anything near $200 I am buying... Really though it says right there on the sticker 89 MPGe. Same as P85. 90 MPGe for P85 94 MGPe for P85D highway. Same size battery pack. You do the math.
 
If the hurt comes it could be a good buying opportunity because their will be a blog post explaining the details. Anyway anything near $200 I am buying... Really though it says right there on the sticker 89 MPGe. Same as P85. 90 MPGe for P85 94 MGPe for P85D highway. Same size battery pack. You do the math.
Agree. Dj frustration having begun the p85d-has-lower-range thread and continuing to flame this f!re.

It appears mathematically that there is no lack of "truthiness" (is that a word?) In Elon Musk. Doubt him at your own risk.
 
IIRC it said 275 then it was raised to 285. I only saw 295 for the 85D. 94 MPGe highway is 5% better than original Model S. So the original Model S was 261 @65mph so this one gets 274 @65mph which is in line with the original number but not the revised upwards number. Don't know if it should be a controversy or not. Keep in mind current Model S is listed as 285 miles @65mph. My thought is it might actually be 285 miles @65mph being that is what it is said on the website so maybe the delay is they are working on new stickers that show this. That would be upper 90s highway MPGe.
BTW Arb1ter did better math than me in the Model S thread:
(242 miles_combined * (94 MPGe_highway / 89 MPGe_combined)) / 90% (full charge) = 284 miles highway range
 
It looks like the EPA numbers are based off of 19" wheels, as 21" wheels would increase energy consumption considerably.

For highway conditions, the EPA numbers are in good agreement with Tesla's.

(242 miles_combined * (94 MPGe_highway / 89 MPGe_combined)) / 90% (full charge) = 284 miles highway range

The design page gives a range of "285 miles at 65 mph".


Great minds. :)
 
Random thought: it is always interesting how the tenor of the conversation on this thread changes as TSLA approaches its 200d. Remember May, when it sunk below it in the days following earnings? At least this time the conversation is more tame and productive (for now).

That said, on a technical level the stochastic RSI being quite low, the RSI approaching 30, and current MACD bottoming, I would not be surprised to see a snap back into the $240s before heading lower (if we do, to form the new floor between 200-210 as previously stated). I have pulled all my short term stuff off of the table due to this uncertainty, aside from a small straddle (plan to sell the calls in 240s or puts in 210s, whichever comes first).
 
Storm in a bath tub

There is a reason why P85D has three modes: NORMAL, SPORT, INSANE.

After Elon's presentation on D I was wondering why these buttons are required at all? The answer IMO lies with the fact that tuning two motors for efficiency (NORMAL mode) will not result in best acceleration, while using two torque curves of drive units to achieve fastest acceleration (INSANE mode) might not result in the best efficiency. This is actually what Elon eluded to in his presentation.

The problem with EPA sticker is that it allows only for one range number. So the question is what number should go on the EPA sticker? Clearly the sticker will show the lowest number, not the highest. So my conclusion is that we are trying to start a storm in a bath tub.

NORMAL = EPA range 265 miles
SPORT = EPA range ??? miles
INSANE = EPA range 242 miles

I bet that delay might be because Tesla is negotiating with EPA on some way to put both highest and lowest number on the sticker in order to fully represent capability of the car.

BTW, it is absolutely insane that EPA range in INSANE mode drops only to 242 miles.
 
Would foreign shores even care about stickers approved by the US Government? Any Canadians ready to buy one?

Cars are made to order for customers. There's no time to start producing cars for foreign markets and have those cars delivered overseas before year-end.

Tesla can produce non-d cars for west coast and deliver before year end especially west coast.

Bottom line is that this D delivery delay is probably short lived and these completed Ds will still all be delivered in US by year end.
 
To back up FredTMC, one P85D buyer says that his car just entered production today. Whatever bottleneck existed (likely the window sticker), Tesla feels comfortable enough now to resume P85D production. They would not do so if there was a question of whether those cars could be delivered in December.

yes! It is moving (again)! Mine just went into production sometime this afternoon
 
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I wasnt positioned. To me, this is again an illogical typical Tesla move. I didnt do anything about my options. Im just sitting on it and waiting it to rise again. But i used the time with facebook and starbucks stocks. There were some good buying opportunities in the last 2 weeks.
 
I'm just curious. Was anyone well positioned for the price action these past 2 weeks? What did you do?

I positioned myself at the beginning of this week. I sold some common and sold a majority of my March calls. Also sold some weekly covered calls that are looking to expire worthless.

I rebought a few of the March calls for 1/3 what I sold them for. I also bought a j17 leap. I'm only buying s little right now though. I think we have the potential to get close to $210, possibly $200. I still haven't seen the delays on the main news feeds yet.
 
The bottom line is that there aren't many short term catalysts on the horizon in the short term right now. Model X is a ways away, GF on track but not exciting, P85D already announced. Production not accelerating quickly as many had hoped (myself included). Lower oil prices not helping the stock price, although I don't see that affecting demand whatsoever.

The next positive catalyst in my mind is that with a greater mix of D models in Q1 of 2015 that revenue will be higher than forecast. But that isn't until early May....
 
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